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The price tag on BBVA's American franchise amounts to about 30 times its projected earnings in 2021, according to analysts at UBS, a bank. That is a lot for a unit that has long underperformed, posting returns on equity of around 6-7% (BBVA's Mexican arm, which is comparable in terms of risk-weighted assets, routinely produces returns of 20% or more). But PNC has demonstrated a knack for turning round ailing ventures, notably the American arm of RBC, a Canadian bank, which it snapped up in 2012. Investors seem confi- dent PNC can repeat the trick: the bank's share price rose by 3% on the day the deal was announced.
據瑞士聯合銀行(UBS)的分析師稱，BBVA在美國的特許經營費用大約是其2021年預期收益的30倍。對于一個長期表現不佳的部門來說這是一個不小的數字，其凈資產收益率約為6-7%(BBVA的墨西哥分支，其風險加權資產可與之比較，通常回報率為20%或更高)。但PNC已經展示了其扭轉風險的能力，尤其是在2012年收購的加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)的美國分部。投資者似乎確信PNC可以再一次上演這個把戲：該銀行的股價在交易宣布當天上漲了3%。
BBVA's investors were even more enthusiastic. Its share price jumped by 20% on the day. Britta Schmidt of Autonomous, a research firm, estimates the net value gained at about 8bn Euros($9.5bn), or 40% of the bank's market capitalisation. The sale will shore up its core-capital ratio by nearly three percentage points, to 14.5%, well above the level demanded by regulators.
BBVA的投資者甚至更加熱情，它的股價當天上漲了20%。一家名為Autonomous的研究公司的布里塔·施密特估計，該公司的凈資產收益約為80億歐元(95億美元)，相當于該銀行市值的40%。此次出售將使其核心資本比率提高近3個百分點，達到14.5%，遠高于監管機構要求的水平。
A chunk of the bounty may go towards acquisitions closer to home, fuelling a long-awaited wave of consolidation in Europe's overbanked markets. BBVA's American exit makes its portfolio disproportionately exposed to emerging markets, giving it a reason to invest at home. It may also help that, since July, the European Central Bank has encouraged banks to recognise an accounting gain, known as negative goodwill, which they generate when they buy a rival at a lower price than the book value of its assets. Such "badwill", in turn, can be used to offset restructuring charges. Investors seem to believe that BBVA's talks with Sabadell will succeed: Sabadell's share price jumped by 16% on the PNC news, and a further 9% after PNC and BBVA said that due diligence had begun.
這筆收入的絕大部分可能會流向更靠近本土的收購，從而在銀行過度擴張的歐洲市場掀起一波期待已久的整合浪潮。BBVA退出美國市場使其投資組合不成比例地暴露在新興市場，這給了它在國內投資的理由。自7月以來，歐洲央行(ECB)鼓勵各銀行承認一種名為“負商譽”的會計收益(銀行以低于其資產賬面價值的價格收購競爭對手時產生的收益)，這或許也起到一定作用。反過來，這種“不良意愿”可以用來抵消重組費用。投資者似乎相信BBVA與Sabadell的談判將會成功：在PNC的消息傳出后，Sabadell的股價上漲了16%，而在PNC和BBVA表示盡職調查已經開始后，Sabadell的股價又上漲了9%。
Transatlantic divestitures, meanwhile, will probably continue. European banks operating in America should either go big or give up, says Adrian Cighi of Credit Suisse, a bank. Analysts expect HSBC, Europe's largest bank by assets, to signal a partial exit when it releases its results in February. Santander and BNP Paribas, the other European banks with a big American presence, say they do not want to sell. The PNC deal, however, may make shareholders think focus is not such a bad idea.
與此同時，跨大西洋的資產剝離可能會繼續下去。瑞士信貸銀行的艾德里安·奇吉表示，在美國經營的歐洲銀行要么做大要么放棄。分析師預計，歐洲資產規模最大的銀行匯豐(HSBC)將在2月份公布業績時發出部分退出的信號。桑坦德銀行(Santander)和法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)是另外兩家在美國擁有大量業務的歐洲銀行，它們表示不想出售。然而，PNC交易可能會讓股東認為“專注”并不是一個壞主意。
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