評論
打印
This stockpile comes on top of the $20bn the lenders set aside in the first quarter.
這些銀行在第一季度撥備了200億美元。
The way to think about these provisions, said Jennifer Piepszak, JPMorgan's chief financial officer, is that "it is all in the outlook, because we are not seeing it today".
摩根大通的首席財務官Jennifer Piepszak說到，考慮這些撥備的方式是，“因為我們今天沒有看到，所以一切都在展望中”。
Will the third act of the crisis see banks making big losses?
危機的第三幕會看到銀行遭遇巨大損失嗎？
A simple way of thinking about what will happen next is to split the institutions into three parts: the investment bank,
思考接下來會發生什么的一種簡單方式是，將這些制度分成三個部分：投資銀行，
which has performed exceptionally well so far; loan provisions, which have been exceptionally costly;
迄今表現異常出色；貸款損失準備金，其成本一直異常高昂；
and "everything else", which includes wealth and asset management. The residual bit of large banks' business has, overall, been remarkably steady.
以及“一切別的東西”，包括財富和資產管理。大銀行的剩余業務整體而言非常穩定。
If provisions for loan losses and revenues from investment banking had both been flat on the year,
如果貸款損失準備金和投資銀行業務收入均與去年持平，
net income would have fallen by an average of just 1% across Citi, JPMorgan and Wells.
那么花旗銀行、摩根大通和富國銀行的凈收益平均僅下降1%。
The fate of banks' profitability seems likely therefore to depend on the fate of the investment-banking business, and of provisions for loan losses.
因此，銀行利潤率的命運要依賴于投資銀行業務以及貸款損失準備金的命運了。
Investment-banking revenues seem set to slow, if they have not already done so.
投資銀行的收入似乎要放緩了，如果他們還沒有這樣做的話。
Trading volumes have eased in June and early July from their highs in March and April.
與3月和4月的高點相比，6月和7月初的交易量有所減少。
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive, reckoned that trading revenues would "normalise" or even drop below normal later in the year.
摩根大通的CEO，杰米·戴蒙認為今年年末，交易收入將“正常化”，甚至低于正常水平。
Whether provisions prove sufficient or not is far from clear. They are based on a number of assumptions that are layered on top of each other.
貸款損失準備金是否準備充足尚不清楚。它們是建立在許多相互疊加的假設之上的。
One is about the path the virus takes. Another is how that evolution affects unemployment and economic growth.
一個是關于病毒的傳播途徑。另一個是這種進化對失業率和經濟增長的影響。
Yet another concerns the size of any further fiscal stimulus, and how consumers and firms respond to it.
而另一個問題是任何進一步財政刺激的規模，以及消費者和企業對此的反應。
Banks' base case seems to be broadly in line with that of the Federal Reserve.
銀行的基本預期似乎與美聯儲的大體一致。
The economy is expected to be smaller by the end of 2021 than it was at the end of 2019.
預計到2021年底，經濟規模將小于2019年底。
The unemployment rate is expected to remain in double digits until the end of this year, before falling gradually.
預計失業率將在今年年底前保持兩位數，然后才會逐漸下降。
But bank bosses emphasised the fog of uncertainty shrouding it all. "We are in a completely unpredictable environment," said Michael Corbat, Citi's chief executive.
但銀行老板們強調的是籠罩著一切的不確定性。“我們都處在一切完全不可預測的環境中，”花旗銀行的CEO Michael Corbat說到。
"In a normal recession unemployment goes up, delinquencies go up, charge-offs go up,
“在正常的經濟衰退中，失業率走高、違約率增加、貸款沖銷上升、
home prices go down, incomes go down, savings go down," said Mr Dimon. This time the usual relationships do not hold.
房價下跌、收入下降、存款減少，”Dimon說到。這一次，往常的關聯不成立了。
Even as unemployment has jumped, for instance, incomes have risen.
例如，失業率上升了，收入也增加了。
If investment-banking revenues subside and banks keep having to add to provisions, losses may be on the cards in the third quarter.
如果投資銀行收入減少，銀行繼續不得不增加貸款損失準備金，那么第三季度可能出現虧損。
Wells Fargo was the only bank to make a loss in the second. That reflects its relatively small investment bank, as well as its special situation—
富國銀行是唯一一家在第二季度出現虧損的銀行。這反映出它的投資銀行相對較小，以及其環境特殊——
it still operates under an asset cap imposed by regulators that has constrained its growth, even as other lenders have ballooned.
它仍在在監管機構設定的資產上限下運營，這限制了它的增長，即使其他銀行已經膨脹。
But another, rosier scenario is possible: that government stimulus continues to keep delinquencies down, and banks end up with mountains of spare capital.
但另一種更樂觀的情況是有可能的：政府的刺激措施繼續讓拖欠率保持低水平，并且銀行最終擁有了堆積如山的閑置資金。
That would be welcome news for shareholders. Even as the S&P 500 benchmark index has recovered, bank shares are a third lower than at the start of the year.
這對股東來說是個好消息。即便標準普爾500指數已經回升，銀行股份仍比年初低三分之一。
But the happy scenario also relies on the third act being the final one. With covid-19 cases rising, that is looking increasingly unlikely.
但這個樂觀的情況也依賴于第三幕是最后一幕。隨著新冠病例的增加，這種可能性似乎越來越小。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
