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Latin America, however, proved a laggard. It managed an average growth rate in real per person incomes of just 1.9% in the 2000s:
但事實(shí)證明拉丁美洲是一個(gè)落后者。在本世紀(jì)頭10年，其真實(shí)的人均收入增長(zhǎng)率僅為1.9%：
faster than in rich economies but the lowest of the emerging world.
雖然快于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，但仍是新興世界中的最低水平。
In the 2010s growth in the region ground to a near-halt, at just 0.5% per year, behind both the emerging-country average and the rich world.
在2011年到2019年，該地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)幾乎停滯，僅為0.5%每年，落后于新興國(guó)家平均水平和發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家水平。
Latin America's relatively high incomes—its larger economies are nearly all middle-income—may have contributed to slower growth:
拉丁美洲的相對(duì)較高收入——其較大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體幾乎都是中等收入——可能是增長(zhǎng)放緩的原因之一：
the richer you are, the less scope to grow by borrowing established technologies from other places. Its isolation mattered, too.
越富有，通過借助其他國(guó)家的現(xiàn)成技術(shù)來實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)的空間就越小。其孤立也是個(gè)問題。
The fastest growing emerging economies of the era were industrialising countries in Europe and Asia,
這個(gè)時(shí)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)最快的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體是歐洲和亞洲的工業(yè)化國(guó)家，
which could latch on to the manufacturing supply chains of advanced neighbours.
他們可以抓住發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的制造業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈。
Few Latin American economies, apart from Mexico, enjoyed similar opportunities.
除了墨西哥外，少有拉美經(jīng)濟(jì)體享有類似的機(jī)遇。
And although the quality of governance—and of macroeconomic policy in particular—
盡管經(jīng)歷了20世紀(jì)80年代和90年代的債務(wù)危機(jī)和通貨膨脹后，
has improved markedly since the debt crises and inflations of the 1980s and 1990s,
政府管理質(zhì)量——尤其是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的管理質(zhì)量——已經(jīng)得到了顯著改善，
corruption, crime and volatile politics have made Latin America a less hospitable place for investors than it might have been.
但貪污、犯罪和不穩(wěn)定的政治使得拉丁美洲對(duì)投資者來說不那么友好了。
Latin America has averted a debt crisis—so far.
到目前為止，拉丁美洲已經(jīng)避免了一場(chǎng)債務(wù)危機(jī)。
The Federal Reserve dollar-swap lines enjoyed by Mexico and Brazil have shielded them against troubles sparked by dollar shortages.
墨西哥和巴西享有的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)美元互換額度，使他們免受美元短缺引發(fā)的麻煩。
IMF credit lines available to Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru have eased market pressure on the region.
IMF向智利、哥倫比亞、墨西哥和秘魯提供的信用額度緩解了該區(qū)域的市場(chǎng)壓力。
Central banks have been able to cut interest rates to provide something of a cushion against the pandemic's economic damage, without provoking capital flight.
央行能夠通過降息，在一定程度上緩解疫情對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的損害，同時(shí)又不會(huì)引發(fā)資本外逃。
Still, there is no escaping the fact that even the healthiest of Latin American economies faces a punishing road back to normality.
但一個(gè)無法回避的事實(shí)是，即便是拉美最健康的經(jīng)濟(jì)體都面臨著艱難的恢復(fù)正常之路。
The IMF's forecasts for growth in 2021 are decidedly tepid: GDP in the region is expected to expand by 3.7% next year,
IMF對(duì)2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)無疑是不溫不火的：預(yù)計(jì)明年該地區(qū)的GDP將增長(zhǎng)3.7%，
compared with 5.9% for the emerging world as a whole. Unless the growth in covid-19 infections falls rapidly,
相比之下，整個(gè)新興世界的增長(zhǎng)為5.9%。除非covid-19感染人數(shù)迅速下降，
even those meagre projections will prove too optimistic. The reduction in inequality and poverty that was achieved in the past two decades is now at risk.
否則即便那些小小的預(yù)測(cè)也將被證明過于樂觀。在過去20年里實(shí)現(xiàn)的減少不平等和貧困的目標(biāo)現(xiàn)在面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
The World Bank warns that poverty in the region could rise by as much as 23m this year.
世界銀行警告稱，該地區(qū)的貧困人口今年可能增加多達(dá)2300萬人。
Government policy seems unlikely to alleviate these hardships.
政府的政策似乎不太可能緩解這些困難。
Mass protests erupted in Bolivia, Chile, Colombia and Ecuador last year. Political systems may be strained further.
玻利維亞、智利、哥倫比亞和厄瓜多爾去年爆發(fā)大規(guī)?？棺h。政治體系可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步緊張。
It matters too that Latin America's three largest economies are among its most troubled.
同樣重要的是，拉丁美洲最大的三個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體也處于困境之中。
Argentina has defaulted on its debt— again—and faces a risk of runaway inflation.
阿根廷再次拖欠債務(wù)，并面臨惡性通貨膨脹的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
Brazil's epidemic rivals America's as the worst in the world; it may need help from the IMF to avoid a debt crisis, or turn instead to inflationary finance.
巴西疫情與美國(guó)的相匹敵，成為世界最嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家；該國(guó)或許需要IMF的幫助來避免債務(wù)危機(jī)，或是轉(zhuǎn)向通貨膨脹金融。
Mexico suffers from threats to the rule of law, a president seemingly determined to scare off private investment,
墨西哥法制受到威脅，總統(tǒng)似乎決定要嚇跑私人投資
and an unpredictable northern neighbour, which is also its biggest export market.
以及一個(gè)不可預(yù)測(cè)的北部鄰居，也是其最大的出口市場(chǎng)。
For Latin America covid-19 is a double shock: a brutally painful tragedy in its own right,
對(duì)于拉美洲而言，covid-19是雙重打擊：疫情本身是一個(gè)殘酷痛苦的悲劇，
and the definitive end of a growth opportunity that the region largely failed to exploit.
也是該地區(qū)大部分未能利用的增長(zhǎng)機(jī)遇的終結(jié)。
The future of its economies and its societies depends on whether Latin Americans can be persuaded that there will be other chances in the future—
其經(jīng)濟(jì)體和社會(huì)的未來取決于是否能說服拉美人，未來還會(huì)有其他機(jī)遇——
and that next time its governments will do more to seize them.
并且下一次，他們的政府將采取更多措施抓住機(jī)遇。
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