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A broad analysis by Charles Robertson of Renaissance Capital, an investment bank,
投資銀行復興資本的Charles Robertson所做的廣譜分析發現
finds that after recent declines, emerging-market currencies are as cheap in real terms as they have been since the mid-2000s.
在經歷了近期的下跌后，新興市場貨幣的實際匯率與21世紀中期以來的水平一樣低。
Should inflation pick up faster in the developing world than in the rich one, the reckoning would change.
如果發展中國家的通貨膨脹率比發達國家上升得更快，那么清算的方式就會改變。
Currencies would then need to fall further in nominal terms to keep the exchange rate steady in real terms, so that exports stay competitive.
屆時，各國貨幣的名義匯率需要進一步下跌，以保持實際匯率的穩定，從而使出口保持競爭力。
Emerging-market economies tend to be more inflation-prone than richer ones. Because of that, central banks have generally been vigilant.
新興市場經濟體往往比發達國家更容易出現通貨膨脹。正因為如此，各國央行總體上一直保持警惕。
A weaker currency has been typically met with higher interest rates to counter imported inflation—even if that hurts an already weak economy.
更加弱勢貨幣通常會帶來更高的利率，以抵消輸入型通貨膨脹——即使這會損害本已疲弱的經濟。
But a lot of central banks in the developing world have relaxed monetary policy recently—understandable, given the severity of the economic shock.
但很多發展中國家的中央銀行近期已經放寬了貨幣政策——鑒于此次經濟沖擊的嚴重性，這是可以理解的
For some countries, though, the dangers of inflation are not great. These more closely resemble rich-world economies,
雖然，對于一些國家而言，通貨膨脹的危險并不大。這些國家與發達國家的經濟更為相似，
where a weak currency leads to a temporary burst of inflation. The wealthier parts of Asia are like this.
在發達國家，貨幣疲軟會導致暫時的通貨膨脹。亞洲較富裕的地區是這樣的。
But in other places inflation sticks around if not stomped upon. That tends to be because wages are indexed to prices;
但在其他國家，即使沒有經濟沖擊，通貨膨脹也會繼續存在。這往往是因為工資與物價掛鉤；
industry is somewhat cartelised; or trust in the currency is low, encouraging the local use of the dollar. Parts of Latin America come to mind. So does Turkey.
工業被卡特爾化；或者說對貨幣的信任很低，這鼓勵了美元在當地的使用。拉丁美洲的部分地區就是如此。土耳其也是。
Indeed the options a country has when its currency falls define its status, says Eric Lonergan of M&G, a fund-management group.
基金管理集團M&G的Eric Lonergan表示，一個國家在其貨幣貶值時所擁有的選擇權確實決定了它的地位。
If it must raise interest rates to counter inflation, it is an emerging market; if it has the room to cut rates without fear, it is developed.
如果它必須提高利率以對抗通脹，那它就是一個新興市場；如果它有降息的空間，那么它就是發達國家。
Definitions matter, of course. Part of the appeal of indices of emerging-market stocks is that they are dominated by Asian economies that are fairly rich and well-run.
當然，定義很重要。新興市場股票指數吸引人的部分原因在于，它們是由相當富裕且運行良好的亞洲經濟體所主導。
They count as emerging markets, because the buying and selling of financial assets is not quite frictionless.
它們被視為新興市場，因為金融資產的買賣并非完全沒有摩擦。
All may prove quite resilient as the world emerges from lockdown. At the very least, the way they perform is likely to be different from rich-world economies.
當世界從封鎖中復蘇時，所有這些都可能被證明是相當有彈性的。至少，他們的表現可能與發達國家不同。
That feature alone should be appealing to a certain kind of investor.
單憑這一點就應該能吸引特定類型的投資者。
If the world is indeed changed radically by this health crisis, it may be in ways that are hard to imagine today.
如果這場健康危機確實從根本改變了這個世界，其方式可能是如今難以想象的。
And if you are unsure of the future, it makes all the more sense to spread your bets.
如果你對未來不確定，那么分散你的賭注就更有道理了。
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