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You know by now, if you've been paying attention, that the coronavirus pandemic is,
如果大家一直在關注的話，現在你應該知道，此次冠狀病毒
if not a turning point in history, then the midwife to profound change or, at the very least, an opportunity for a bit of a rethink.
即便不是一個歷史轉折點，也應該是深刻變革的促成因素，或者至少是一個重新思考的機會。
Everything has changed—except, perhaps, minds. Those who expected China
一切都發生了改變——除了思想。那些預計中國
(or the European Union or shareholder capitalism) to blow up are now more convinced it will.
（或歐盟或股東資本主義）會崩潰的人，現在更加確信了。
Believers in globalisation's retreat, or inflation's comeback, have fewer doubts.
相信全球化會倒退，或通脹會卷土重來的人，就沒有那么多疑問了。
And if you were chary of emerging markets you might be more so now.
如果你以前對新興市場很謹慎，現在可能會更加謹慎。
In March, when there was a mad scramble for cash, the cash everyone wanted was dollars.
今年3月，當人們瘋狂地爭搶現金時，每個人都想要的現金是美元。
When the dollar gets bid up, it hurts emerging markets. If inflation returns, meanwhile, it will surely show up first in the developing world.
當美元被推高時，新興市場就會受到傷害。與此同時，如果通脹卷土重來，它肯定會首先出現在發展中國家。
Yet if these vices seem more apparent, so does the virtue of diversification.
然而，如果這些缺點看起來更加明顯，那么多元化的優點也一樣。
The ideal diversifier is not just something other than what you own, but something that contrasts with it.
理想的分散投資不只是你沒有的東西，而是與你所擁有的相反的東西。
The typical portfolio is rich in dollar assets—in Treasuries and the leading American shares. It needs a counterweight, an anti-dollar trade.
典型的投資組合是擁有豐富的美元資產——國債和美國主要股票。它需要一種牽制力，一種反美元的貿易。
A benchmark basket of emerging-market stocks is a good one.
新興市場的一籃子基準股票是個不錯的選擇。
It helps that such stocks are cheap. Valuations based on company earnings are often misleading at the start of recessions.
這類股票的低價是有幫助的。在經濟衰退開始時，以公司盈利為基礎的估值往往具有誤導性。
Recent earnings figures flatter the appraisal; forward-looking estimates of profits take time to reflect grim reality.
近期收益數據讓評估結果更加樂觀；對利潤的前瞻性評估需要時間來反映嚴峻的現實。
A way around this is to use a measure that takes in company profits over the cycle:
解決這個問題的一種方法是使用一種在周期內計算公司利潤的方法：
the CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) popularised by Robert Shiller of Yale University.
由耶魯大學的Robert Shiller所推廣起來的CAPE（經周期性調整的市盈率）。
A snapshot taken at recent market lows by James Montier of GMO, an asset-management firm, shows a healthy margin of safety.
資產管理公司GMO的James Montier在近期市場低點做的一個寫照，顯示了一個健康的安全邊際。
Emerging-market shares look very cheap relative to both their history and to America's S&P 500 index of shares.
對比其歷史和美國標準普爾500指數，新興市場的股票看起來非常便宜。
Rich-world investors must also consider exchange-rate risk. Forecasting currencies is a mug's game.
發達國家的投資者也必須考慮匯率風險。預測貨幣是一件費力不討好的事。
Even so, a shrewd investor should at least check she is not buying a currency that is obviously riding high, and thus at greater risk of a dramatic fall.
即便如此，精明的投資者至少應該檢查一下自己是否在買入一種明顯走高、因而面臨大幅下跌風險更大的貨幣。
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