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The European central bank's firepower is sadly depleted.
歐洲中央銀行的火力遺憾耗盡。
The interest rate on the reserves that banks hold with it is sub-zero;
銀行的存款準備金率低于零;
its quantitative-easing (QE) scheme has hoovered up assets worth 2.6trn euro ($2.9trn)—
其量化寬松（QE）計劃已獲得了價值2.6萬億歐元（2.9萬億美元）的資產—
equivalent to over a fifth of the euro area's GDP. Even so, in June Mario Draghi, the bank's boss,
相當于歐元區GDP的五分之一以上。即便如此，今年6月，央行行長馬里奧·德拉吉
promised further stimulus if the economy does not buck up. Statistics published since then suggest little recovery.
承諾如果經濟不振作起來，將采取進一步的刺激措施。自那以后公布的統計數據顯示，經濟幾乎沒有復蘇。
Cue much speculation about another attempt to revive growth.
這引發了人們對再次試圖重振經濟增長的猜測。
Many expect an announcement at the bank's meeting in September, along with updated economic forecasts.
很多人期待在9月份的銀行會議上宣布這一消息，同時發布最新的經濟預測。
But its next gathering on July 25th could still surprise, or at least lay the groundwork for stimulus.
但其7月25日的下一次會議仍會有驚喜，或者至少會為刺激經濟打下基礎。
With individual instruments nearing limits, it is expected to deploy a combination.
隨著個別財政工具將接近極限，預計央行將部署一個組合。
Of late its weapon of choice has been guidance on the path of interest rates.
最近，其武器選擇一直是利率走勢的指引。
It has promised to keep rates steady for longer, at least until mid-2020.
其已承諾在更長時間內保持利率穩定，至少會持續到2020年年中。
But markets expect rates not merely to stay on hold, but to fall—by a tenth of a percentage point, from -0.4%, in coming months.
但市場預期利率不僅沒有保持不變，還下降了—在接下來的幾個月里，從-0.4%下降0.1個百分點。
Banks complain that negative interest rates shrink their margins: they have to pay the central bank to hold their deposits,
銀行抱怨負利率降低了它們的利潤率：他們必須付錢給中央銀行來持有他們的存款，
but fear that if they pass negative rates on, their depositors will withdraw their cash.
但他們擔心，如果他們把負利率傳遞下去，他們的儲戶就會提現。
Profits and lending both fall, preventing the rate from transmitting to the real economy.
利潤和貸款雙雙下降，阻止了利率傳遞至實體經濟。
For now, the ECB reckons it has not reached the "effective lower bound"—
目前，歐洲央行（ECB）估計它還沒有達到“有效下限”—
the point at which the expansionary effects of negative interest rates stop outweighing any costs.
在這個點上，負利率的擴張效應應不再超過任何成本。
But unwanted side-effects may appear as rates go lower.
但隨著利率下降，可能會出現不必要的副作用。
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