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That would be the nuclear option. It looks unlikely for the time being. The costs for China would be huge; Mr Dediu estimates that Apple contributes about $24bn a year to China’s economy. Some 1.5m Chinese help assemble Apple products. A further 2.5m Chinese software engineers create apps for the ios operating system. Appetite for punishment may be weak. On May 26th Ren Zhengfei, Huawei’s boss, told Bloomberg tv that he would be the first to protest if China hits back against Apple. “Apple is my teacher, it’s in the lead,” he said. “As a student why go against my teacher? Never.”
那將是核選項。目前看來不太可能。中國將付出巨大代價；德迪歐估計，蘋果每年為中國經濟貢獻約240億美元。大約150萬中國人為蘋果組裝產品。另有250萬名中國軟件工程師為ios操作系統開發應用程序。所以懲罰的想法可能是微弱的。5月26日，華為總裁任正非在接受彭博電視臺采訪時表示，如果中國對蘋果公司進行反擊，他將是第一個提出抗議的人。“蘋果是我的老師，起到了帶頭的作用，”他說。“作為一個學生，為什么要反對我的老師?從來不會。”
Mr Ren can always change his mind. So can China. Whereas Huawei claims to have a Plan B to survive its blacklisting by America, and Samsung, a rival smartphone-maker from South Korea, is shifting supply chains from China, Apple appears to have no clear alternative to assembly in China. Few other places possess the expertise to produce the high-end components that Apple needs. The existing network would take years to unscramble.
任先生能改變主意。中國也可以。盡管華為聲稱有B計劃來度過被美國列入黑名單的日子，而其競爭對手韓國智能手機制造商三星正在將供應鏈從中國轉移，但蘋果似乎除了在中國組裝之外沒有明確的選擇。生產蘋果所需高端零部件的專業知識其他地方少有。現有的網絡需要數年的時間來整理。
On Apple watch
蘋果智能手表
One fix would be for Apple to develop another indispensable product that no self-respecting affluent Chinese consumer could do without. For all his success, Mr Cook has not yet managed this. Another would be to develop services that do not need production in China. Apple’s much-trailed announcement in March of new video- streaming, payments and other services shows it is trying. They may prove a hit, but would be no substitute for the iPhone. Mr Cook must be hoping that he has not miscalculated the risks to the supply chains he has so intricately engineered.
解決辦法之一是，蘋果開發出另一款不可或缺的產品，任何要面子的富裕中國消費者都離不開它。盡管庫克取得了巨大成功，但他尚未做到這一點。另一個目標是開發不需要在中國生產的服務。今年3月，蘋果發布了備受關注的新視頻流媒體、支付和其他服務，表明該公司正在努力。它們可能會大受歡迎，但無法取代iPhone。庫克一定希望自己沒有誤判自己精心設計的供應鏈所面臨的風險。
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