Mr Cook’s bet on China extended beyond its factories to its consumers. Sales to the region have risen from next-to-nothing in 2010 to $52bn last year, or almost a fifth of Apple’s revenues. Since Donald Trump’s election in 2016, “Tim Apple” (as America’s president once called him) has jetted to Washington and Beijing to try to ease rising trade tensions between the two superpowers. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, says Mr Cook “knows how to navigate the political mind”.
庫克對中國的押注已從工廠擴展到消費者。蘋果在中國的銷售額已從2010年的幾乎為零增長至去年的520億美元，幾乎占蘋果總收入的五分之一。自唐納德•特朗普2016年當選美國總統以來，“蒂姆•蘋果”(美國總統曾這樣稱呼他)往來華盛頓和北京，試圖緩解這兩個超級大國之間不斷加劇的貿易緊張局勢。科技分析師賀拉斯•德迪歐表示，庫克“知道如何應對政治思維”。
Given his reputation as a logistical mastermind, it is worth asking why he has ignored the first rule of supply-chain management: the risk of keeping too many important eggs in one basket. In Mr Cook’s case, that basket is China. The trade bust-up is getting uglier. If it leads to an anti-American backlash in China, it could spell trouble for Apple—and for Mr Cook personally.
考慮到他作為物流策劃者的聲譽，有必要問問他為什么忽略了供應鏈管理的第一條規則：在一個籃子里放太多重要雞蛋的風險。就庫克而言，這個籃子就是中國。貿易爭端愈演愈烈。中國一旦抵制美國產品，這將給蘋果公司和庫克先生個人帶來麻煩。
Mr Cook’s lobbying has helped Apple avoid direct hits from Mr Trump’s tariffs, already imposed on $250bn-worth of Chinese imports. But its shares have fallen by almost 12% in the past month. On June 1st, after The Economist went to press, China was expected to retaliate with tariffs on $60bn of American goods, including components for Apple devices. Mr Trump has threatened a levy of 25% on $300bn more of imports if trade talks do not produce a breakthrough. This would cover the iPhone, by far Apple’s biggest source of revenue. Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates that it could add $160 to the cost of a $999 iPhone xs. Apple could absorb the cost or pass it on to buyers. Either way, profits would suffer.
庫克的游說幫助蘋果避免了來自特朗普關稅的直接沖擊。特朗普已對價值2500億美元的中國進口產品征收關稅。但其股價在過去一個月下跌了近12%。6月1日，在這期《經濟學人》付印后，預計中國將對600億美元的美國商品征收關稅作為回擊，其中包括蘋果設備的零部件。特朗普威脅稱，如果貿易談判不能取得突破，美國將對3000億美元的進口商品加征25%的關稅。這包括iPhone，到目前為止，iPhone是蘋果最大的收入來源。摩根斯坦利估計，iPhone xs將在999美元的價格基礎上再加價160美元。蘋果或自己承擔成本，或把成本轉嫁給消費者。無論哪種方式，利潤都會受損。
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