評(píng)論
打印
Finance and Economics
財(cái)經(jīng)
Free Exchange: Many happy returns
自由交流：豐厚回報(bào)
A new data trove helps reshape how the economy is understood.
新的數(shù)據(jù)寶藏有助于重塑經(jīng)濟(jì)體被如何理解。
Data-gathering is the least sexy part of economics, which is saying something.
正在講述某件事情的數(shù)據(jù)收集工作是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中最乏味的部分。
Yet it is also among the most important.
然而，它也是最重要的部分之一。
The discipline is rife with elaborate theories built on assumptions that turned out to be false once someone took the time to pull together the relevant data.
這門(mén)學(xué)科充斥著各種精妙的理論，這些理論都是建立在一旦有人花點(diǎn)時(shí)間去收集相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)就被證偽的假設(shè)之上。
Accordingly, one of the most valuable papers produced in 2017 is an epic example of data-retrieval: a piece of research that spells out the rates of return on important asset classes, for 16 advanced economies, from 1870 to 2015.
于是，在2017年所發(fā)表的最有價(jià)值的論文之一是一個(gè)開(kāi)天辟地的數(shù)據(jù)收集范例：一篇講清楚重要資產(chǎn)類別回報(bào)率的研究論文，涉及16個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，時(shí)間跨度從1870年到2015年。
It is fascinating work, a rich seam for other economists to mine, and a source of insight into some of today's great economic debates.
它是令人為之而著迷的工作，一座有待其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家去開(kāi)采的富礦，一處對(duì)當(dāng)今各種偉大的經(jīng)濟(jì)爭(zhēng)論有著深刻見(jiàn)解的源頭。
Rates of return both influence and are influenced by the way firms and households expect the future to unfold.
回報(bào)率在影響公司和家庭預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)展開(kāi)的方式的同時(shí)也受其影響。
They therefore find their way into all sorts of economic models.
因而，它們?cè)诟鞣N類型的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型中都有一席之地。
Yet data on asset returns are incomplete.
然而，有關(guān)資產(chǎn)回報(bào)的數(shù)據(jù)是不全面的。
The new research, published as an NBER working paper in December 2017, fills in quite a few gaps.
在2017年12月做為美國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局的一份工作論文發(fā)表的這項(xiàng)新研究，填補(bǔ)了很大的空白。
It is the work of five economists: oscar Jorda of the San Francisco Fed, Katharina Knoll of the Bundesbank, Alan Taylor ofthe University of California, Davis, and Dmitry Kuvshinov and Moritz Schularick, both of the University of Bonn. (Messrs Jorda, Schularick and Taylor have spent years building a massive collection of historical macroeconomic and financial data. )
它是五位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家——舊金山聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的oscar Jorda、德國(guó)央行的Katharina Knoll、加州大學(xué)戴維斯分校的Alan Taylor以及波恩大學(xué)的Dmitry Kuvshinov 和 Moritz Schularick——的工作成果。（Jorda，Schularick 和 Taylor等三人在構(gòu)建一個(gè)大型的歷史宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融數(shù)據(jù)集上花費(fèi)了數(shù)年的時(shí)間）。
For each of the 16 economies, they craft long-term series showing annual real rates of return—taking into account both investment income, such as dividends, and capital gains, all net of inflation—for government bonds and short-term bills, equities and housing.
他們?yōu)?6個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中的每一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體都精心制作出一系列長(zhǎng)期數(shù)據(jù)，展示了——將紅利等投資收入以及資本所得和全部的凈通脹都考慮在內(nèi)的——政府債券、短期票據(jù)、股票和房產(chǎn)的年均實(shí)際回報(bào)率。
譯文來(lái)源考研英語(yǔ)時(shí)事閱讀
