評論
打印
The IMF's model did not allow for an Iraqi invasion.
國際貨幣基金組織的模型并未考慮到伊拉克的入侵。
But other errors are less easily explained: between 1990 and 2007, the IMF's spring forecasts underestimated global growth in 13 of the 18 years, in large part because it failed to foresee the spectacular rise of China.
但是其他一些錯誤卻難以解釋：1990年至2007年這18年之間，有13年國際貨幣基金組織的春季預測低估了全球增長，很大一部分是因為它未能預見中國驚人的崛起。
Since the financial crisis, however, the IMF has had to revise down its forecasts over time every year since 2010.
然而自經濟危機一來，從2010年起，國際貨幣基金組織不得不漸漸每年修改其預測。
The fund's spring forecasts for the coming year have turned out to be over-optimistic in the past three years.
在過去三年，該組織對來年經濟的春季預測結果是過于樂觀。
Christine Lagarde, the IMF's boss, recently conceded that economic growth in the past six years has been “disappointing”, but held firm in her belief that the world economy was turning.
國際貨幣基金組織的總裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德最近承認過去六年經濟增長一直“差強人意”，但是堅持她的信念，相信世界經濟正在回轉。
Hence the positive revision to its global GDP forecast—albeit by just a tenth of a percentage point.
因此，對全球GDP預測的樂觀看法—盡管只有百分之十分之一。
The global economy may still falter for a number of reasons.
全球經濟可能仍然會因為一些原因停止不前。
Ms Lagarde worries the rich world will suffer “self-inflicted wounds” from poor policy choices, notably on trade.
拉加德擔心發達國家將從不合理的政策選擇中遭受“自我傷害”，特別是在貿易方面。
Political uncertainty abounds.
政治不確定性比比皆是。
Just hours before the IMF released the WEO came the surprising news of an imminent election in Britain.
正在國際貨幣基金組織發布世界經濟展望后幾個小時，出現了英國出人意料選舉的驚人消息。
The known unknowns hardly help, either.
已知的未知數也沒有幫助。
Mr Trump's fiscal policies, for example, are far from firm plans—Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's chief economist, calls them “a work in progress”.
例如，特朗普的財政政策根本不是穩定的計劃--國際貨幣基金組織的首席經濟學家莫里斯·奧布斯特菲爾德把這些政策稱為“在發展中的工作”。
考研英語時事閱讀
