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Bussiness
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Logistics firms: Boxed in
物流公司：陷入困境
The return of borders poses a challenge to the soaring parcel-delivery business.
貿易壁壘的回歸對迅猛發展的快遞業提出了挑戰
During the day, Leipzig’s airport is quiet.
白天，萊比錫機場很冷清。
It is at night that the airfield comes to life.
到了晚間停機坪上便恢復了生氣。
Next to the runway a yellow warehouse serves as the global sorting hub for DHL, a delivery firm owned by Deutsche Post of Germany.
跑道旁的一個黃色倉庫是德國郵政旗下快遞公司DHL的全球分揀中心。
A huge extension, which opened in October, means it can sort 150,000 parcels each hour, says Ken Allen, DHL’s CEO.
這個分揀中心經過了一次大規模擴建，于去年10月投入使用。DHL的CEO肯·艾倫（Ken Allen）說，擴建后的中心每小時能夠處理15萬個包裹。
It was built as business soared.
擴建是在快遞業務飆升時進行的。
But the express-delivery industry faces a new challenge: the return of trade barriers due to the protectionist bent of Donald Trump and because of Brexit.
但如今快遞業面臨著一個新的挑戰：由于特朗普的保護主義傾向和英國脫歐，貿易壁壘將重新回歸。
The slower-moving shipping and air-cargo business has long been in the doldrums as a result of slow overall growth in trade in recent years.
由于近年貿易總體增長緩慢，運速較慢的航運和空運業很久以來都處于低迷狀態。
Yet the rise of cross-border e-commerce has still meant booming business for express-delivery firms.
然而，跨境電子商務的興起讓快遞公司仍然生意興隆。
On January 31st UPS revealed record revenues for the fourth quarter of 2016; FedEx and DHL are expected to report similarly buoyant results next month.
1月31日，UPS公布的2016年第四季度收入創下新高，預計聯邦快遞和DHL下月也會公布類似令人振奮的業績。
Since 2008 half of the increase in express-delivery volumes has come from shoppers buying items online from another country.
自2008年以來，快遞增長量的一半都來自于“海淘”買家。
Falling trade barriers have greatly helped them.
貿易壁壘的降低極大地促進了快遞業的發展。
When DHL and FedEx were getting going, in the 1970s, there was little demand for international express deliveries.
20世紀70年代DHL和FedEx剛起步時，人們對國際快遞的需求還很少。
Packages often got stuck in customs for weeks and were heavily taxed.
包裹經常被卡在海關長達數周，還要支付高額的關稅。
The expansion of free-trade areas, lower tariffs and the internet brought years of growth.
自由貿易區擴張、關稅下調以及互聯網的發展為該行業帶來了持續多年的增長。
But after Mr Trump’s threats to raise tariffs on goods from China and Mexico, together with the indication last month from Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, that the country will leave the EU’s customs union, there are widespread fears that the favourable tailwinds enjoyed by the industry for decades are gone.
然而，特朗普威脅要對中國和墨西哥的貨物提高關稅，英國首相特雷莎·梅上月也透露英國將退出歐盟關稅同盟，這讓人們普遍擔心令快遞業順利發展幾十年的利好條件已消失不見。
“It’s all a real nightmare,” groans David Jinks of ParcelHero, a British parcel broker which works with DHL, FedEx and UPS.
與DHL、聯邦快遞和UPS都有合作的英國快遞代理公司ParcelHero的大衛·金克斯（David Jinks）哀嘆道：“這是一個真正的噩夢。”
Start with Brexit.
先從英國脫歐說起。
More physical border checks between Britain and Europe would do little direct damage.
英國與歐洲彼此間邊境檢查的增多并不會造成多少直接損害。
Most packages arriving in Britain have already been checked for drugs and dangerous items.
大多數運抵英國的包裹都已經過毒品和危險品檢查。
Goods from outside the EU go through customs 95% of the time without any inspection or delay.
來自歐盟以外的貨物在95%的情況下不經過任何檢查或延誤就可通關。
Instead, post-Brexit costs will probably come from long wrangles over which of 19,000 customs codes should be applied to a consignment.
相反，脫歐后物流成本的增加可能緣于對某批貨物應適用19,000條海關編碼中的哪一條而爭論不休。
As an example of what could happen, Halloween costumes from China often get stuck at Britain’s border while customs officials work out whether they are toys or children’s clothes, which attract different duties.
例如，可能會發生這樣的情形：來自中國的萬圣節服飾經常會困在英國邊境，因為海關官員需要確定它們是屬于玩具還是兒童服裝——不同的類別對應不同的稅率。
Such complexity would force delivery firms to put up their prices to customers, Mr Jinks says.
金克斯說這種復雜性將迫使快遞公司向客戶提高運費。
Sending an item from Britain to Switzerland (outside the EU) costs 150% more than it does to Italy (inside the EU).
從英國到瑞士（歐盟以外）的寄件成本要比英國到意大利（歐盟內部）的高出150%。
The most severe impact on business would come from higher tariffs, which would hurt demand for cross-border imports and deliveries in favour of local goods.
對快遞業最為嚴重的影響將來自于關稅的提升，這會讓消費者更傾向于購買本地商品，從而抑制對境外商品和運送的需求。
This is where Mr Trump’s threats come into focus.
這就是令特朗普的威脅成為焦點的原因。
A trade war would hit the massive volume of consignments that DHL’s, FedEx’s and UPS’s planes carry every day in and out of America.
貿易戰將嚴重影響DHL、聯邦快遞和UPS的飛機每天從美國運進運出的大量貨物。
For the moment, a customs exemption exists for packages worth under $800.
目前，美國海關對價值低于800美元的包裹免稅。
This means that higher tariffs on a Chinese watch imported in bulk into the United States, for instance, could be avoided by an American ordering direct from Alibaba, a Chinese retailer, for delivery direct to their home.
因此，假如美國消費者個人直接在中國零售平臺阿里巴巴下單購買手表并直接寄送至其家中，就可避免從中國進口大批手表所需繳納的更高關稅。
But if Mr Trump is serious about cutting imports, he could get rid of this exemption.
但如果特朗普當真要削減進口，他大可取消這種免稅待遇。
It was only last March that Barack Obama increased it to $800 from the previous $200.
奧巴馬去年3月才剛把之前200美元的進口免稅額提高到800美元。
If it were lowered or eliminated by executive order, logistics-industry people would really panic.
如果特朗普以行政命令降低或取消它，物流業人士真的會惶恐不已。
They are putting a brave face on things.
目前他們都在強作鎮定。
DHL’s Mr Allen has emphasised that “globalisation is here to stay”, whatever Mr Trump does.
DHL的艾倫強調，無論特朗普做什么，“全球化的趨勢都不會變”。
UPS’s boss, David Abney, hopes the president is not really against trade agreements.
UPS的老板大衛·艾伯尼（David Abney）希望總統并不是真的反對貿易協議。
Even more telling are the actions of Fred Smith, FedEx’s founder and CEO.
聯邦快遞的創始人及CEO弗雷德·史密斯（Fred Smith）的行動更能說明問題。
Last week, he quietly gave up running the firm day-to-day to spend more time campaigning for free trade.
上周，他靜悄悄地放下公司的日常事務，花更多的時間為倡議自由貿易奔走。
譯文來源考研英語時事閱讀
