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經濟學人:從0到70(十億) 優步究竟經歷了什么(4)

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Developing its own maps enables Uber to offer more precise estimates for pickups and drop-offs to users and better routes for drivers—improvements which are particularly important for carpooling and for autonomous vehicles.

通過開發自己的地圖系統,優步可以為用戶提供更精確的上下車地點,同時也為司機們找到最佳路線,這些改進對拼車服務和無人駕駛都尤為重要。
These are capabilities that rivals in emerging markets would be very hard put to match.
這些都將成為將新興市場的對手甩在身后的利器。
In addition to competitors, Uber also needs to contend with regulators and policymakers.
除了要和競爭者抗衡,優步還需和監管部門以及政策制定者們周旋。

Uber004.jpg

Most of Uber’s bookings are generated in just 20 cities.

目前,其大部分交易額僅來自20個城市。
Many dense, potentially lucrative urban areas in countries including Germany, Italy and Spain are out of reach for the time being because of regulatory problems.
諸如在德國、意大利和西班牙的許多人口密集、有盈利前景的城市,因監管問題還未能看見優步的身影。
It is unclear how soon and how favourably these will be resolved, if at all.
至于這些問題何時能解決,或到底能否解決,還是個未知數。
How Uber fares with regulators will depend to some extent on how it manages its relationship with the public.
優步如何處理與監管部門的關系一定程度上取決于公共關系的管理上。
If it succeeds in its vision of becoming a major provider of transport services for both passengers and goods all over the planet, it will have a larger presence in the physical world than any technology company in history.
若其對未來的構想成為現實(成為全球交通和運輸的主要供應商),它將超越歷史上任何其他科技公司,在現實世界中占有重要席位。
The public will have an opinion about it.
大眾群體的觀點也將有所權重。
Today competition authorities see Uber in a positive light, because it brings more transport options to city-dwellers.
目前,由于優步為城市居民提供了多種交通方式,競爭權威機構視其參與市場為積極信號。
But when it puts many taxi companies out of business and becomes an essential part of a city's infrastructure, there will be calls to regulate it more strongly.
但如果它擠垮大批的出租車公司,成為城市基礎設施的重要組成部分,便會有人呼吁加強對其的監管。
Those calls will get louder if, or when, Uber starts to swap growth for profits.
而如果它準備大肆收割利潤,這種呼聲只會愈加強烈。
Uber's relationship with its drivers could hit its image and its pockets.
優步與司機之間的關系也同樣會影響其聲譽和利潤。
Drivers in California, Massachusetts and New York have sued the company, claiming that they are employees, not freelancers, and are thus entitled to benefits.
在加州、麻省和紐約,一些司機已將優步告上法庭,聲稱自己屬于正式員工,而非自由職業者,因此有權享有員工福利。
A judge in California recently allowed one of these cases to proceed, bringing fresh uncertainty over Uber's financial obligations.
近期,加州的一位法官接受處理一起這樣的案件。這給優步的財務責任帶來了新的不確定性。
Some drivers say that once they cover their expenses, they make less than the minimum wage.
有些司機表示刨去成本費用后,他們的收入甚至達不到最低工資標準。
“I feel betrayed by Uber,” says Omer Abdelnur, who has driven for Uber for three years in San Francisco; he has watched his earnings decline by around 70%, according to his estimates.
一位在舊金山開了三年的優步司機估計自己的收入下降到只有以前的三成,并說“我覺得自己被優步背叛了”。
(Uber says fares have dropped, but wages have stayed level because the volume of trips is up. )
(優步則表示雖然車費下降了,但由于交易量的增加,司機工資仍與以往持平。)
According to one insider, the public-relations nightmare of drivers' low wages and lack of benefits (compared with techies' high salaries) has helped to keep Apple and Google out of ride-hailing so far.
據知情人士透露,司機 (相較于高薪技術人員而言) 工資較低缺少福利,這種公關噩夢使得蘋果公司和谷歌一直以來都不提供叫車服務。
But this does not necessarily apply to all business models: later this year Waze, a mapping app owned by Alphabet, will reportedly launch a service designed to let San Francisco commuters share rides.
但有些商業模式并不受這種公關噩夢的影響:據報道,今年下半年Alphabet旗下的地圖應用軟件位智 (Waze) 將啟用新的服務模式,讓舊金山的通勤者可以使用拼車服務。
And it certainly won’t apply when the cars become driverless.
而當無人駕駛汽車大行其道時,這種公關噩夢就更不值一提了。
Mr Kalanick acknowledges that autonomy poses an “existential” risk to Uber.
卡拉尼克承認無人駕駛會對優步的存亡構成威脅。
If other companies produce safe software solutions earlier, they could launch ride-hailing or ride-sharing services that undercut and possibly destroy his company.
如果早前有公司開發出安全軟件解決方案的話,他們就能推出打擊甚至完成擠垮優步的叫車和拼車服務。
In an autonomous world, the competition may expand to include carmakers like GM, Ford and Tesla as well as tech companies like Google and Apple—which have mountains of cash to spend on fleets, if they want to.
在這個自動化世界里,競爭也許會波及到汽車制造商像通用公司,福特,特斯拉,以及技術大亨如谷歌、蘋果,只要他們樂意,這些公司都有大量的資金來組建車隊。
If the fleet model proves the way to go, Uber would have to give up its asset-light approach and join in.
如果組建自有車隊的模式可行度高,那么優步將不得不放棄現有的輕資產運營模式而加入到自有車隊的公司行列中來。
There are reasons to be optimistic about Uber's prospects in navigating this technological change.
我們有理由相信優步將主導這場科技變革。
Because transport is its whole business, it will work harder to ensure it is in the lead.
由于運輸是其全部經營項目,優步將更加努力使運輸處于領導地位。
Alphabet, Google's parent company, has more wonky projects than there are letters.
谷歌的母公司Alphabet已有很多不穩定的項目需要顧及。
Just as the shift to mobile concentrated Facebook's attention and required a great deal of discipline, the shift to autonomy has created an urgency and focus at Uber.
正如臉書向手機應用轉型使其注意力更集中,紀律更嚴明,優步向無人駕駛車的轉型也十分緊迫,需要十分專注。
At the same time, it should be able to incorporate autonomy piecemeal as it is phased in at different paces, and with different rules, in different jurisdictions.
同時,隨著自動駕駛在施行不同規則的管轄區域以不同速度被分階段引進,優步便能一點點將自動駕駛融入市場。
Such a transition will be hard for an all-autonomous approach.
要采用全自動的方式來應對這種轉型是困難重重的。
That said, Uber has a reputation for pushing into new markets before regulations are in place and working out rules later; there are “lots of places where there aren't regulations at all, so you can just roll out”, says Mr Kalanick.
盡管如此,優步善于在相關規章制度建立完善之前快速進入新興市場,然后制定規則。卡拉尼克說,“許多地方根本就沒有相關制度,于是我們就推出自己的制度”。
That may not be such a good approach when it comes to autonomy.
然而,對于自動駕駛市場來說,這種方式并不討喜。
Governments that have not thought through laws to govern autonomous vehicles as quickly as they might are unlikely to take kindly to self-driving cars barrelling down roads in the interregnum.
當政府還沒有想清楚如何盡快制定法律來管理無人駕駛汽車時,他們不可能在過渡期對街上飛馳的無人駕駛汽車善意相待。
The shift to autonomous vehicles may improve riders' lives, but it could also spark a backlash against new technologies that put chauffeurs and truck drivers out of work.
向無人駕駛汽車轉轉型或許會提高乘客的生活質量,但這也有可能導致群眾對這種新科技持對抗情緒,因為轎車和貨車司機可能因此失業。
“We have a lot of attention as it is. I don't even know how we could get more,” says Mr Kalanick.
卡拉尼克說:“我們已經吸引了大量關注,我甚至不知道該如何獲得更多注意”。
But if there is a lesson to be taken from Mr Carnegie's experience of empire-building in Pittsburgh, it is that the public rarely looks kindly on those who amass big fortunes if they do not contribute some of their winnings in return.
要說能從卡內基在匹茲堡建立帝國的經歷中學到些什么的話,那便是:那些積累了大量財富的人如果不將他們的財富貢獻一些出來的話,人們往往不會太友善。
Offering cheap rides is not going to be enough to count on the public's good graces.
即便向乘客提供廉價的出行服務,也不能換來他們的青睞。

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