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Finance and economics: The world economy: Our election, your problem
財經：世界經濟：我們的選舉，你們的問題
A Trump presidency will be bad for the world economy and worse for places outside America.
對于世界經濟來說，特朗普總統任期將是有害的；對于美國之外的地方而言，危害就更大了。
It is not clear precisely how Donald Trump will govern, the extent to which he will carry out some of his scarier promises on trade and immigration, and who will be his economics top brass at the Treasury and in the White House.
唐納德·特朗普將如何治國理政？他將把他那些有關貿易和移民的更加可怕的承諾貫徹到何種程度？誰將是他在財政部和白宮的經濟大員？準確地說，這些還不明朗。
But a decent first guess is that President Trump will be bad for the world economy in aggregate; and a second is that his actions are likely to do more harm, in the short term at least, to economies outside America.
但是，一種像樣的初步猜想是：總體而言，特朗普總統對于世界經濟將是有害的；接下來的猜想是：他的舉措，至少在短期內，有可能對美國之外的經濟體造成更多的傷害。
When America has in the past stepped aside from its role at the centre of the global economic system, the damage has spread well beyond its borders.
當美國以前讓出其在全球經濟體系中心的角色時，危害遠遠超出了它的國界。
In 1971, when Richard Nixon ended the post-war system of fixed exchange-rates that had America at its centre, his Treasury secretary, John Connally, told European leaders, “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.”
1971年，當理查德·尼克松終結了美國位居其中心的戰后固定匯率體系時，他的財政部長約翰·康納利曾對歐洲領導人說：“美元是我們的貨幣，卻是你們的問題。”
This election result, to paraphrase Connally, belongs to America but is potentially a bigger economic problem for everyone else.
把康納利的話引申一下就是，這次的選舉結果屬于美國，但是，對其他所有人來說，很可能是一個更大的經濟問題。
The scale and nature of that problem depend on the interplay of the two main elements of Mr Trump's economic populism.
這個問題的大小和性質取決于特朗普經濟民粹主義的兩大主要元素的相互作用。
The first is action to boost aggregate demand.
首先是提針總需求的舉措。
Mr Trump favours tax cuts and extra public spending on infrastructure.
特朗普傾看中的是減稅和額外的基礎設施公共開支。
The second element is trade protectionism.
第二個元素是貿易保護主義。
He has pledged to slap tariffs on Chinese imports and to renegotiate the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada.
他已經承諾要對中國進口商品加征關稅并與墨西哥和加拿大重新就北美自由貿易協定進行談判。
To the extent that he leans more on the first element and less on the second, the immediate damage to America's economy will be limited.
就他較多地依賴第一個元素且較少地依賴第二個元素來說，對于美國經濟的直接破壞將是有限的。
But even in that event, the net effect of a Trump presidency on economies outside America is still likely to be harmful.
但是，即便如此，特朗普總統任期對于美國之外的經濟體的凈影響依舊可能是極有害的。
To understand why, go back to the subject of Connally's gibe: the dollar.
要想明白其中的道理，回頭看看康納利風涼話的主角——美元。
As it became clear that Mr Trump would win the election, the greenback fell against rich-country currencies, such as the euro, yen, Swiss franc and pound, as investors sought a haven from policy uncertainty in America.
就在特朗普會贏得大選變得明朗起來的時候，由于投資者想要尋求一處遠離美國政策不確定性的避風港，美元對歐元、日元、瑞士法郎和英鎊等富裕國家的貨幣一度大幅下跌。
An index of its value against major currencies dropped by 2% in early trading on November 9th.
在11月9日的早盤交易中，美元對主要貨幣的幣值指數下跌了2%。
Within hours it had regained almost all the lost ground, as investors pieced together a positive story for the dollar, based on the prospects of a boost to demand in America's economy and an inflow of capital from abroad.
隨著投資者基于對美國經濟需求提振和資本從海外流入的前景而為美元拼湊出一個正面的故事，它在幾個小時內就收復了幾乎所有的失地。
A deal between Mr Trump and Congress to cut corporate taxes, goes the logic, would spur flush American companies to repatriate retained profits held offshore.
這種邏輯認為，特朗普與國會間的給企業減稅的協議會刺激大批美國公司遣返離岸持有的留存收益。
It would also allow them to increase capital spending in America, because they would have more ready cash; and consequent profits would be taxed more lightly.
這份協議還會聽任這些公司提高在美國的資本開支，因為它們會有更多的現款；同時，隨之而來的利潤會被更輕地征稅。
