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They should therefore save income earned as a result of stimulus in order to have it on hand for when the bill came due.
因而，為了在賬單到期時手里有錢，他們應當把作為刺激結果而掙到的收入存起來。
The multiplier on government spending might in fact be close to zero, as each extra dollar is almost entirely offset by increased private saving.
由于每一額外的一美元幾乎完全被增長了的私人儲蓄所抵消，政府開支乘數實際上可能接近于零。
The economists behind many of these criticisms clustered in colleges in the Midwest of America, most notably the University of Chicago.
當時，許多這些批評背后的經濟學家都聚集在美國中西部的大學中，最突出的是芝加哥大學。
Because of their proximity to America's Great Lakes, their approach to macroeconomics came to be known as the “freshwater” school.
由于臨近五大湖，他們的宏觀經濟學策略，后來以“淡水”派而聞名。
They argued that macroeconomic models had to begin with equations that described how rational individuals made decisions.
他們指出，宏觀經濟學模型必需從描述理性個人如何決策的等式入手。
The economic experience of the 1970s seemed to bear out their criticisms of Keynes: governments sought to boost slow-growing economies with fiscal and monetary stimulus, only to find that inflation and interest rates rose even as unemployment remained high.
上世紀70年代的經濟經歷似乎證實了他們對凱恩斯的批評：試圖以財政和貨幣刺激推動增長緩慢的經濟體的政府發現，通脹和利率甚至在失業仍就居高不下時也上升了。
Freshwater economists declared victory.
淡水派經濟學家宣布了勝利。
In an article published in 1979 and entitled “After Keynesian Economics”, Robert Lucas and Tom Sargent, both eventual Nobel-prize winners, wrote that the flaws in Keynesian economic models were “fatal”.
在1979年發表的一篇名為《凱恩斯主義經濟學之后》的文章中，后來雙雙成為諾獎得主的羅伯特·盧卡斯和湯姆·薩金特寫道，凱恩斯經濟學模型中的缺陷是“致命的”。
Keynesian macroeconomic models were “of no value in guiding policy”.
凱恩斯宏觀經濟學模型“在指導政策方面毫無價值”。
These attacks, in turn, prompted the emergence of “New Keynesian” economists, who borrowed elements of the freshwater approach while retaining the belief that recessions were market failures that could be fixed through government intervention.
這些攻擊，反過來又促成了在借鑒淡水派策略的同時依舊堅信衰退是可能透過政府干預而得到修正的市場失敗的“新凱恩斯主義”經濟學家的出現。
Because most of them were based at universities on America's coasts, they were dubbed “saltwater” economists.
由于他們大都出自美國大西洋沿岸的大學，因而被稱為“咸水”派。
The most prominent included Stanley Fischer, now the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve; Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary; and Greg Mankiw, head of George W.Bush's Council of Economic Advisers.
最著名的有現任美聯儲副主席斯坦利·費舍爾，前財長拉里·薩默斯和小布什經濟顧問委員會主席格雷格·曼昆。
In their models fiscal policy was all but neutered.
在他們的模型中，財政政策幾乎都遭到了閹割。
Instead, they argued that central banks could and should do the heavy lifting of economic management: exercising a deft control that ought to cancel out the effects of government spending—and squash the multiplier.
相反，他們指出，央行能夠而且應當挑起經濟治理的重任：實施一種應該能夠消除政府開支影響——進而擠壓乘數——的靈巧調控。
Yet in Japan since the 1990s, and in most of the rich world since the recession that followed the global financial crisis, cutting interest rates to zero has proved inadequate to revive flagging economies.
然而，自上世紀90年代以來，先是在日本，后來在富裕世界的大部分國家中，由于隨著全球金融危機而來的衰退，將利率降至零已經被證明不適合于重振主要經濟體。
Many governments turned instead to fiscal stimulus to get their economies going.
相反，許多政府轉向了財政刺激，以推動經濟體前行。
In America the administration of Barack Obama succeeded in securing a stimulus package worth over $800 billion.
在美國，貝拉克·奧巴馬政府成功地確保了價值8000多億美元的一攬子刺激計劃。
As a new debate over multipliers flared, freshwater types stood their ground.
隨著一場新的關于乘數爭論的升溫，淡水派堅守了它們的陣地。
John Cochrane of the University of Chicago said of Keynesian ideas in 2009: “It's not part of what anybody has taught graduate students since the 1960s.
2009年，芝加哥大學的約翰.柯克蘭在論及凱恩斯主義的思想時表示：“它們不是自上世紀60年代以來教給畢業生的那部分內容。
They are fairy tales that have been proved false.
它們是已經被證偽的神話故事。
It is very comforting in times of stress to go back to the fairy tales we heard as children, but it doesn't make them less false.”
在艱難時期回歸我們在孩提時代聽到的神話故事是非常令人欣慰的。但是，這并不能減少它們的謬誤?！?/div>
The practical experience of the recession gave economists plenty to study, however.
然而，衰退的實踐經歷卻給了經濟學家很多值得研究的東西。
Scores of papers have been published since 2008 attempting to estimate fiscal multipliers.
自2008年以來，已經有數十篇試圖測算財政乘數的論文出版。
Most suggest that, with interest rates close to zero, fiscal stimulus carries a multiplier of at least one.
其中大多數論文認為，由于利率接近零，財政刺激相當于至少為1的乘數。
The IMF, for instance, concluded that the (harmful) multiplier for fiscal contractions was often 1.5 or more.
例如，國際貨幣基金組織認為，對財政收縮（有害的）乘數經常大于等于1.5。
Even as many policymakers remain committed to fiscal consolidation, plenty of economists now argue that insufficient fiscal stimulus has been among the biggest failures of the post-crisis era.
即便許多決策者依舊以財政鞏固為己任，但是，如今，相當多的經濟學家認為，欠充分的財政刺激是后危機時代最大的失誤之一。
Mr Summers and Antonio Fatas suggest, for example, that austerity has substantially reduced growth, leading to levels of public debt that are higher than they would have been had enthusiastic stimulus been used to revive growth.
例如，薩默斯和安東尼奧·法塔斯指出，緊縮極大地拉低了增長，導致了高于在令人振奮的刺激如果被用于重振增長時本應有的公共債務水平。
Decades after its conception, Keynes's multiplier remains as relevant, and as controversial, as ever.
在這個概念問世幾十年后，凱恩斯的乘數依舊像以前那樣意義重大，像以前那樣充滿爭議。
