評論
打印
Europe Greece and the euro
歐洲 希臘與歐元
Toil and trouble
受苦受難
The government gets its latest austerity measures through, but only just
希臘新一輪緊縮政策終以微弱優(yōu)勢通過
Greece’s fragile coalition government only narrowly averted disaster on November 7th when it won parliamentary approval for a drastic new austerity package. The package scraped through with 153 votes to 128 in the 300-member house.
11月7日，希臘風(fēng)雨飄零的聯(lián)合政府終于在國會(huì)通過了新一輪大規(guī)模財(cái)政緊縮的一攬子計(jì)劃，但全過程命懸一線。在300人組成的國會(huì)中，該計(jì)劃僅以153票對128票的微弱優(yōu)勢勉強(qiáng)得到通過。
Antonis Samaras, the prime minister, made the best of it, saying that “Greece has turned a page.” Meanwhile furious anti-austerity protesters outside parliament hurled stones and Molotov cocktails at police in what has become a grim ritual.
希臘總理安東尼斯·薩馬拉斯（Antonis Samaras）對此大加吹捧，表示此刻“希臘翻開了嶄新的一頁”。而與此同時(shí)，緊縮政策的反對者們十分憤怒，他們在國會(huì)外向警察投擲石塊和燃燒彈，這一嚴(yán)峻的事實(shí)已令人習(xí)以為常。
The debate over the latest austerity measures, the toughest yet, had turned angry even before lawmakers studied the 500-page “poly-law” before them. Presenting the four-year programme to parliament’s economics committee, Yannis Stournaras, the finance minister, fended off attacks from Syriza, the leftist opposition party, pointing out that if it were voted down Greece would lose a desperately needed 31.5 billion euro($40 billion) slice of its bail-out funding, would default on its next debt repayment and would surely then make a disorderly exit from the euro.
本次財(cái)政緊縮是目前規(guī)模最大的一次，甚至在立法機(jī)關(guān)親自研究了這500頁的“多方法案”之前，關(guān)于該政策的論辯已被激化。向國會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)委員會(huì)遞呈這項(xiàng)四年計(jì)劃的是希臘財(cái)長亞尼斯·斯圖納拉斯（Yannis Stournaras）。面對左翼反對黨派“希臘極左翼聯(lián)盟”（Syriza）的抨擊，他回應(yīng)稱，若該計(jì)劃未得到通過，那么，希臘將失去其急需的一筆315億歐元（約400億美元）救助金，進(jìn)而無法在下一規(guī)定時(shí)間完成債務(wù)償還，最終必然退出歐元區(qū)，引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂。
Mr Stournaras had gradually given ground over four months of negotiations with the “troika” of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF on the package to be implemented in 2013 and 2014. Greek proposals for cuts in government operating costs were rejected as unrealistic. So they were replaced by “permanent” spending reductions, code for slashing salaries and pensions.
斯圖納拉斯財(cái)長與“三駕馬車”（troika，即歐盟、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織）就本次預(yù)計(jì)于2013年至2014年實(shí)行的緊縮計(jì)劃進(jìn)行過談判。在這場長達(dá)4個(gè)多月的談判中，斯圖納拉斯不斷陷入被動(dòng)。希臘政府曾提議削減政府運(yùn)營資本，但“三駕馬車”認(rèn)為該計(jì)劃不夠現(xiàn)實(shí)而予以否決。因此，最終希臘政府接受了“永久性”減少政府開支，這表示公務(wù)員的收入和年金將遭到大幅削減。
Many elderly Greeks’ worst fears were realised when the law was unveiled. The biggest chunk of savings next year, about 4.6 billion euro, comes from reducing pensions, starting with a 5% cut for those on a modest 1,000 euro a month. “It feels as if the troika has selected the old for special punishment,” commented Constantina Athanassakis, a 70-year-old retired hairdresser.
這一法案出爐的同時(shí)，眾多希臘老人的噩夢成真了。政府明年預(yù)計(jì)達(dá)到的財(cái)政儲(chǔ)蓄額度中，約46億歐元的大頭將通過降低養(yǎng)老金來獲得。而首當(dāng)其沖的則是對每月1000歐元的低額年金削減5%。“看來三駕馬車選擇讓老人來接受這特殊的懲罰。”年高70的退休理發(fā)師Constantina Athanassakis表示。
Salaries of better-paid public-sector workers such as central-bank employees, university teachers, judges and hospital doctors, will also be cut. Salaries at public-sector corporations are being reduced by 35% and capped at 5,000 euro a month, which means take-home pay of just 2,900 euro for bosses and fewer perks. Some cuts will be backdated. Next year’s budget assumes the economy will shrink by another 4.5%, but local economists predict that a collapse in spending by cash-strapped consumers could lead to an even bigger fall.
而如央行職員、大學(xué)教師、法院法官和醫(yī)院醫(yī)生這些公共部門的高薪崗位，同樣面臨減薪。國有企業(yè)員工的降薪幅度達(dá)35%，月薪將不得高于5000歐元。換言之，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)們的稅后月薪將僅為2900歐元，津貼也將大幅縮減。其中，部分減薪還將提前施行。據(jù)財(cái)政部估計(jì)，明年希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模將再次縮減4.5%。但希臘國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家則預(yù)計(jì)，本已囊中羞澀的消費(fèi)者，加上本次開支削減，將使希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨進(jìn)一步衰退。
Antonis Samaras, the centre-right prime minister, promises this will be the “l(fā)ast and final” round of cuts. But Greece’s creditors are not so sure, given the poor record of all Greek governments on reform. The economy is not expected to start growing again before 2015. Few observers expect the government to keep to its new timetable of cutting 110,000 civil-service jobs by 2016. The privatisation programme has been disappointing. With Greece looking politically unstable and facing two more years of recession, it will be hard to attract foreign investors.
對此，身處中間偏右派立場的薩馬拉斯總理承諾本輪緊縮將是“最后最后一次”。但鑒于希臘政府在改革上鮮有佳績，其債權(quán)國則并不表示樂觀。據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)，希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)將至2015年才有望再次回升。希臘政府最新出臺(tái)了2016年前削減11萬公務(wù)員崗位的安排，但并不為觀察家們所看好。另外，其私有化計(jì)劃也收效甚微。像希臘這樣政局動(dòng)蕩，外加后兩年經(jīng)濟(jì)不振的國家，實(shí)非海外投資者的佳選。
It does not help that Mr Samaras’s three-party coalition is increasingly fragile. His centre-right New Democracy party is expected to stay loyal at the next parliamentary test, approving the 2013 budget this weekend. Fotis Kouvelis, leader of the small Democratic Left, has also pledged to back the government. But his decision to abstain from the vote on November 7th has undermined his credibility with Mr Samaras. Mr Kouvelis could soon face a leadership challenge.
即使財(cái)政緊縮計(jì)劃得到了通過，也無力挽回薩馬拉斯總理領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下三黨聯(lián)合政府（由希臘“新民主黨”、“泛希臘社會(huì)主義運(yùn)動(dòng)”與“左翼民主黨”于今年6月協(xié)商聯(lián)合成立的政府，譯者注）走向衰弱的事實(shí)。薩馬拉斯總理所在的中右翼“新民主黨”（New Democracy）將支持下一輪國會(huì)的考驗(yàn)，即本周末通過2013年財(cái)政預(yù)算。聯(lián)合政府中的小黨“左翼民主黨”（Democratic Left）黨首佛提斯·科維利斯（Fotis Kouvelis）同樣宣誓忠于政府決定。但11月7日法案投票當(dāng)天，科維利斯宣布棄權(quán)。這一行為有損于他與薩馬拉斯總理間的信任。因此，科維利斯此后不久可能烏紗不保。
Many observers also believe that Evangelos Venizelos, leader of the PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), may be unseated. Mr Venizelos’s reluctance when serving as finance minister to investigate the so-called Lagarde list of 2,000 Greeks with bank accounts in Geneva has annoyed many in his party. Several former ministers think they could do a better job of rebuilding Pasok’s popularity, which is at an all-time low of around 6%, according to the polls. Yet if Pasok fragments, the government risks losing its majority—and the prospect of a Grexit will loom yet again.
據(jù)眾多觀察家表示，同樣面臨失勢的還有“泛希臘社會(huì)主義運(yùn)動(dòng)”（Pasok，簡稱“泛希社運(yùn)”）領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人伊萬格勒斯·維尼則羅斯（Evangelos Venizelos）。這位前財(cái)長在任期間曾拒絕調(diào)查所謂的“拉加德名單”，該名單中記錄著2000名擁有日內(nèi)瓦銀行賬戶的希臘人信息（即2000名有逃稅嫌疑的希臘人，譯者注）。此行為引來其黨內(nèi)眾多人士的不滿。據(jù)民調(diào)顯示，泛希社運(yùn)的支持率跌至歷史最低的6%。對此，眾多前任要員都認(rèn)為，在重振該黨支持率上，自己一定比維尼則羅斯要干得出色。但若泛希社運(yùn)一旦分裂，聯(lián)合政府可能失去國會(huì)的多數(shù)席位。隨之而來的，將是“希臘脫歐”危機(jī)的再一次降臨。翻譯：沈驁
譯文屬譯生譯世
