評論
打印
French politics
法國政治
A policy “reorientation”
政策“轉向”
France’s parliament votes on the European fiscal pact
法國議會將就歐盟財政契約進行表決
Francois Holland campaigned on a promise to “renegotiate” the European fiscal pact signed by his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel. Now the French president is trying to persuade his Socialist deputies to vote in favour of the very same pact, in treaty form. In a parliamentary debate on October 2nd his prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, argued that a rejection of the treaty, which enshrines budgetary discipline and goes to a vote on October 9th, would provoke “a political crisis and the collapse of monetary union”. But the irony of this turnaround has not been lost.
弗朗索瓦·奧朗德在競選時曾承諾，將“重新磋商”前任總統尼古拉·薩科奇與德國總理安吉拉·默克爾共同簽署的歐洲財政契約。而現在，這位法國總統正嘗試說服其社會黨內議員投票支持該契約。在10月2日的一場議會辯論中，法國總理讓-馬克·艾羅稱，該條約是對財政紀律的維護，投票將在10月9日進行，而否決該條約將會挑起“一場政治危機，導致貨幣聯盟崩潰”。這一立場轉變的諷刺之處尚不盡于此。
Mr Hollande faces a rebellion on the left of his party, with about 20 deputies threatening to vote against, and from the Greens, who have formally decided to oppose the treaty. This is particularly odd for the two Green ministers, Cecile Duflot and Pascal Canfin, who have ruled out resigning from government despite their party’s opposition. On September 30th tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in protest at the treaty and at austerity, urging Mr Hollande to “listen to the people not the financiers”. A group of Eurosceptics on the right have declared that, if the treaty is approved, the loss of sovereignty will turn French deputies into mere “museum guards”.
奧朗德不僅失去了其社會黨內左翼人士的支持——約20位議員威脅要投反對票，還面臨著綠黨的反對——后者已正式決定反對該條約。這對賽希爾·杜弗洛及巴斯卡爾·康凡這兩位來自綠黨的部長來說尤為罕見，此二人曾抵住黨內反對，拒絕從政府辭職。9月30日，成千上萬的示威者走上街頭抵制該條約，反對財政緊縮政策，催促奧朗德“聽聽民眾而不是金融家的聲音”。一些右翼歐洲懷疑論者還宣稱，如果這一條約得以通過，主權的喪失將會把法國議員變成純粹的“博物館保安”。
In all likelihood, the treaty will nonetheless be approved. Mr Hollande can rely on the votes of most deputies on the right, who are relishing the sight of the Socialist Party, which kicked up such a fuss against the original pact, now championing the text. Bernard Cazeneuve, the Europe minister, who has been pleading the cause in endless meetings with deputies, still holds out hope that dissident Socialists might be won round. He argues that the treaty needs to be seen in the context of a policy “reorientation” in the euro zone since Mr Hollande took over. Leaders have agreed to a parallel growth pact, albeit modest, and to work on other measures, such as common banking supervision.
然而，該條約十有八九都會得以通過。奧朗德可以依賴大多數右翼議員的支持，他們欣賞社會黨的視野，曾經轟轟烈烈地反對契約草案，現在卻為其斬棘開路。歐洲事務部部長貝爾納爾·卡茲納夫曾在無數次議會會議中聲援該條約，仍然希望能夠贏得社會黨內反對派的支持。他堅稱，在奧朗德執政時代，必須在對歐元區實行政策“轉向”的背景下看待該條約。領導層已經通過一個類似的經濟發展條約——盡管是以微弱優勢通過，并且同意就共同銀行監管等其他措施進行協商。
Achieving parliamentary approval, however, will not bury Mr Hollande’s Europe problem. A one-time protege of Jacques Delors, father of European integration, Mr Hollande is, at heart, a Euro-enthusiast. Yet his party, like his country, remains divided. Mr Hollande was particularly scarred by a rebellion within his own ranks, at a time when he was party leader, against the draft European constitution in 2005, which the French as a whole rejected in a referendum. He dithered for months before sanctioning Laurent Fabius, who led the dissidents and is now foreign minister. The underlying party split still lingers.
但是，即便贏得了議會的支持，也無法掩蓋奧朗德面臨的歐洲問題。奧朗德曾是歐洲統一之父雅克·德洛爾的門徒，他本質上是歐盟的忠實擁躉。但是他的黨派和他的國家一樣，仍處于意見分裂狀態。2005年，法國全民公投反對歐盟憲法草案，時任社會黨領導人的奧朗德就受到了黨內同僚的重創。他遲疑了好幾個月才制裁了領導反對者的洛朗·法比尤斯，后者現任法國外交部長。社會黨內潛在的分歧仍未消弭。
The debate about “political union” in the euro zone is almost entirely absent in France. Writing in Le Monde, a daily, Francoise Fressoz, an editorialist, called this a “strategy of silence”, designed not to stir up divisions. In his speech, Mr. Ayrault declared that France was ready to make proposals, but on condition that the objective was “integration solidaire”, or integration with solidarity. But what exactly he and Mr Hollande mean by this, besides the mutualisation of debt, is unclear.
法國國內幾乎從未討論過關于在歐元區建立“政治聯盟”的問題。法國《世界報》主筆Francoise Fressoz稱這一現象為“靜默政策”，可以避免挑起紛爭。讓-馬克·艾羅在發言中宣稱，法國會積極提出建議，但條件是以“團結的統一”為目的。然而，對于債務互助化問題等政治聯盟問題，他和奧朗德究竟言之何意還尚不明朗。
Perhaps silence is indeed what best suits Mr Hollande, who is not a grand visionary but prefers to wind his way forward carefully. He may not know himself what it is he wants. Above all, he will resist a rush into any proposed treaty changes that would then have to go to a referendum in France. A recent poll suggested that, if the referendum were re-run today, 64% of the French would reject the Maastricht treaty, which the country approved in 1992 only by a whisker.
也許沉默的確是最適合奧朗德的，他雖缺乏遠見，卻喜謹慎前行。他也許自己都不知道自己想要什么。由此看來，他會反對法國倉促實施任何條約修改建議，因為這最終會不得不通過公投來解決。最近一項民調顯示，如果今天重新進行公投，64%的法國公民將會拒絕簽署《馬斯特里赫特條約》，而1992年，該條約在法國僅以微弱優勢得以通過。 翻譯：陳莎莎
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