During its three weeks of operation, the new GFS remained outclassed. On a standard measure—predicting the altitude at which the atmospheric pressure is half as great as at sea level—it still trails the ECMWF model.
全球預報系統投入運行的三周時間里，其預報質量遠優于歐洲中期天氣預報中心。但在一項對某緯度大氣壓強是海平面一半的標準測試中，全球預報系統仍落后于歐洲中期天氣預報中心.
Nonetheless, the GFS's strong showing during January's nor'easter offers solace to critics who feared America would never catch up with Europe in matters meteorological. Weather forecasting is fiendishly complex, and improvements tend to arise not from great leaps forward but rather an accumulation of incremental advances.
之前批評家們擔心美國在氣象預報方面永遠也趕不上歐洲，但是全球預報系統在1月份對暴風雪東北鋒面的準確預測給予了他們一些安慰。預報天氣是件極其復雜的事情，要想提高預測的準確性可不能一蹴而就而要靠慢慢積累。
The ECMWF's most obvious advantage has been in raw computing power. Its Cray XC30 supercomputer can perform up to 2 quadrillion calculations a second, about ten times more than the GFS hardware before the recent upgrade. As a result, it carves up the Earth's atmosphere into svelte cells 16km square and 137 layers deep, compared with a bulky 27km and a mere 64 layers for the old GFS. The ECMWF's computing muscle also lets it start its projections with a replay of the past 12 hours of weather, using 40m data points derived from observations collected by ground stations, aeroplanes, balloons and satellites. In contrast, the GFS begins with a snapshot of a single moment.
歐洲中期天氣預報中心的強勢之處在于它那了得的運算能力。該氣象中心擁有一臺Cray XC30型超級電腦，一秒內就能運算2萬億次，其運算能力是全球預報系統硬件升級前的十倍多。這臺計算機能把地球大氣層整齊地分割為面積為16平方公里的若干小塊，且把每塊做137層分層，而升級前的全球預報系統只能做27平方公里和137層的塊層分割。借助其厲害的運算能力，歐洲中期天氣預報中心能對過去12小時的氣象云圖做回放，從而使其天氣預報更為準確。云圖回放時計算機要處理4000萬個數據點，這些數據都是從地面觀測站點，氣象飛機，氣球及氣象衛星收集獲得的。相較之下，美國的全球預報系統只能對某一特定時刻做云圖拍照，進而分析預測。
The ECMWF also deserves credit for deploying its computational force wisely. The centre was a pioneer in using satellites to fill gaps in the data over the oceans, and in developing “ensemble forecasts” that generate a range of outcomes by employing slightly different starting conditions to produce multiple predictions. Its current model runs 52 such forecasts in parallel, each with a probability assigned to it.
歐洲中期天氣預報中心對其強大的運算能力使用分布得當亦值稱贊。該中心在運用衛星進行氣象觀測，彌補海洋氣象數據不足方面處于領先地位；此外，它還開發出一套名為“系集預報”的模型，即通過利用氣象起始狀況的細微不同來得出多項預測從而得到多個預報結果。歐洲中期天氣預報中心現有的這個模型能同時進行52項這樣的氣象預測，每個預測都會得出一個預報結果。
Weather forecasters in America have full access to the ECMWF's model. However, the United States still has good reason not to free-ride on the Europeans' work. Private American firms have to pay for it, and the ECMWF is unlikely to develop regional or local models focused specifically on America. Moreover, giving the ECMWF a worthy competitor would probably lead to better forecasts overall.
美國的氣象預報人員具有使用歐洲中期天氣預報中心該模型的全部權限。但是美國還是找出了不搭便車的理由。一來美國私人公司要付費使用該模型，二來是歐洲中期天氣預報中心也不可能針對美國開發出一套區域性更強的模型，三來歐洲中期天氣預報中心是個勁敵，與之競爭或許能全面促進美國天氣預報的發展。
The new GFS has certainly narrowed the gap. Its resolution is now 13km, though it still has only 64 layers. By November it is expected to run on a faster computer than the ECMWF's. It could be in line for further upgrades if the new, Republican Congress reintroduces the Weather Forecasting Improvement Act proposed last year—though the party's global-warming sceptics are likely to demand that much of the additional $120m a year the bill offered be taken away from research on climate change.
全球預報系統升級后著實縮小了與歐洲中期天氣預報中心的差距。雖然該系統大氣分層能力還只能分出64層，但現如今它的氣象分辨率已經能達到13千米。今年11月，全球預報系統有望將換裝比歐洲中期天氣預報中心運行速度更快的超級電腦。如今美國國會已是共和黨人的主場了，如果他們能重新采納去年遞交的“氣象預報完善法案”，那全球預報系統有望得到進一步升級。該法案要求每年給氣候研究增加1200萬美元的經費，雖然共和黨內的“全球變暖”懷疑者們可能會要求大幅裁減這筆資金。
According to Cliff Mass, a professor of meteorology at the University of Washington, more money will not be enough to catch up with the Europeans. America, he says, must integrate its separate research and forecasting divisions, and include more contributions from non-government experts. Compared with pushing through cultural change in large public bureaucracies, predicting the weather is easy.
華盛頓大學氣象學教授Cliff Mass稱，即使美國投入再多的錢其天氣預報的能力也無法趕上歐洲人。他說美國要想在這方面獲得實質性的提高不僅得把其氣候專項研究和各預報部門綜合起來，還得廣納民間氣候專家的建議。較之在官場推行政治文化氣息變革，預測天氣真算得上是簡單的了。
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