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Science and technology Weather forecasting Continental divide
科學技術 天氣預報 差距
Europeans do not just talk about the weather more than Americans do.
歐洲人不僅比美國人更喜歡談論天氣，
They are better at forecasting it as well
而且也更擅長預測天氣。
IT WAS far too small a victory to count as an equaliser.
美國目前的全球預報系統與歐洲中期天氣預報中心的天氣預報能力可謂平分秋色。
But cheers were still heard in American meteorological circles after the storm that hit the country's east coast last month left the city of New York mostly unscathed.
上月，一場暴風雪襲擊了美國東海岸，紐約所受影響較小。對于這次暴風雪的預測，全球預報系統的準確度小占上風。
For more than two decades the Global Forecast System (GFS), the leading weather-prediction model produced in the United States, has been notably less accurate than its chief competitor, published by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
較之二者，全球預報系統所得成功雖微不足道，但美國氣象界仍對此大呼叫好。全球預報系統是美國最為先進的天氣預報模型，二十多年來，它發布的天氣預測準確性顯然落后于它的勁敵--歐洲中期天氣預報中心。
Although this deficit went largely unnoticed for years, it was laid bare by Hurricane Sandy.
多年以來，公眾對此差距幾乎全然不知，但是颶風桑迪的襲擊讓人們注意到了二者的差距。
A week before that storm's landfall in 2012, the ECMWF predicted it would veer towards the coast while the GFS showed it remaining at sea.
三年前，在颶風桑迪登陸的一周前，歐洲中期天氣預報中心預測颶風會徑直朝沿海運動，但全球預報系統卻預測它會停留在海面。
In response to this failure, America's Congress authorised 34m of extra money to spend on forecasting.
在這場對颶風桑迪的預測較量中全球預報系統失敗了，為此美國國會批準了一筆數額高達340萬美元的投資，用于升級全球預報系統。
A new version of the GFS went into operation on January 14th, and two weeks later it passed with flying colours.
1月14日，升級后的全球預報系統投入運行，僅兩個星期后它就斬獲成功。
On January 25th the ECMWF predicted that New York would, on the 27th, labour under 64cm (25 inches) of snow brought by the storm pictured above.
1月25日，歐洲中期天氣預報中心預測紐約將在27日遭到暴雪襲擊，城市積雪可達64英寸之厚。
The GFS suggested 18cm. That turned out to be far closer to the truth.
但全球預報系統卻預報積雪厚度為18厘米，最后事實證明后者預測更為準確。
It is, however, too early for the Americans to celebrate.
全球預報系統升級之后牛刀小試便獲成功，但美國人可別高興得太早。
The GFS projection for the blizzard's western edge differed from the ECMWF's by 200km (120 miles)—a weather-forecasting hairs'-breadth.
全球預報系統對此次暴風雪的西部鋒面長度與歐洲中期天氣預報中心所得預測相差200公里，這個差值在本次預報中至關重要。
The only reason anyone noticed this discrepancy was that the gap happened to encompass the country's most populous city.
因為相差200公里的鋒面卻正好縈繞在了紐約這座美國最為繁華的都市上空，這引起了人們的注意。
This episode, moreover, may have been a fluke.
全球預報系統這次預報相對準確或為僥幸成功。
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