評論
打印
Scottish finance
蘇格蘭財政
A case of the jitters
人心惶惶
As the Scottish referendum nears, capital takes fright
蘇獨公投逼進驚擾資金流動
BEFORE this week many investors and money managers had dismissed the possibility that Scotland would vote to leave the United Kingdom on September 18th as too remote to worry about. But then came a poll by YouGov for the Times newspaper showing that support for independence had risen sharply. And so all the well-rehearsed uncertainty over an independent Scotland's economic and financial arrangements is beginning to feel rather less theoretical, and more urgent.
在本周之前，許多投資人以及基金經理都排除了在9月18號的獨立公投上蘇格蘭會脫離英國獨立的可能性，因為他們認為離這事兒還早無需擔心。然而由尤格夫（YouGov）組織并刊登在泰晤士報上的民意調查顯示支持（蘇格蘭）獨立的人數有顯著的上升。此外，所有針對獨立后的蘇格蘭的經濟與財政安排的討論都開始變得越來越具體化，并且愈發的緊迫了。
Most jittery are banks, pension funds and other businesses with significant cross-border interests. Polls from the Scottish Chambers of Commerce have shown in the past that 10% of firms have considered moving away from Scotland if the country votes to go it alone, that a further 8% have definite plans to move and that 5% would expand their English operations or set up an English company. More such businesses have spoken openly as the referendum nears. Standard Life, an insurer, has said it has drawn up contingency plans to move south in the event of a “Yes” vote. It has been widely reported that Lloyds Banking Group, which owns Bank of Scotland, would shift its headquarters from Edinburgh to London as well.
銀行、養老基金以及其他與跨境利息息息相關的行業因此深感不安。之前蘇格蘭商會的民意調查顯示，如果公投決定獨立，有10%的公司將會考慮搬離蘇格蘭；8%的公司將會有搬離蘇格蘭的明確計劃；另外還有5%的公司表示將會擴張他們的英國分公司或者在英國另設新公司。隨著公投的腳步臨近，更多公司公開發表此類言論。保險公司標準人壽也曾表示已經起草好了遷往南方的應急方案以備公投贊成獨立的結果出現。曾有鋪天蓋地的報道稱，蘇格蘭銀行的母公司英國勞埃德銀行表示同樣也會將其總部從愛丁堡遷至倫敦。
Douglas Baillie, a pensions expert, says that clients from south of the border are ringing up, worrying about the future of their pension and life-assurance policies held in the likes of Standard Life, Scottish Widows (owned by Lloyds) and Aegon (formerly Scottish Equitable). All are Edinburgh-based and among the largest pension funds in Britain. English investors want to know whether they would still be paid in pounds, says Mr Baillie. They also worry that they would no longer have any sway through the ballot box over the tax regime governing their pensions. If Scotland votes to leave, warns Mr Baillie, the flow of pension money into the Scottish-based insurance companies from outside Scotland may well dry up. And there would be transfers out, to English-based companies. “They will run for cover, to a safe haven,” he says.
養老金專家道格拉斯·貝利稱，從邊界南部來電咨詢的客戶絡繹不絕，他們十分擔憂自己養老金的未來以及人壽保險政策的變化，因為這些都掌握在諸如標準人壽、蘇格蘭寡婦（屬于勞埃德集團）以及全球人壽保險公司（其前身為蘇格蘭公平公司）之類的金融機構手中。這些機構的總部基本都設在愛丁堡，并且養老基金規模數全國前列。貝利稱，英國的投資者們想要知道這些機構是否還能以英鎊的形式進行支付。他們還擔心自己再也不能通過投票箱影響決定著他們養老金多少的稅收制度。貝利還警告道，如果蘇格蘭投票脫離英國，總部位于蘇格蘭的保險公司將會失去從蘇格蘭外部涌入的養老金資金流。并且還會有資金從這些公司流出，并流入總部設在英國的公司。“他們只能四處奔走尋求幫助，去尋找一個安全的港灣，”貝利說道。
This fear of capital flight is most worrying. The share price of Lloyds slid slightly after YouGov's poll was released. The pound has fallen slightly, too, although this cannot be attributed entirely to worries over the referendum. One senior banker, Bill O'Neill of UBS Wealth Management, says that the markets have moved from pricing Scottish independence at a “one in six chance to about one in four”, and that some money has already been moved out of Scottish bank accounts and assets, mainly by clients with self-invested pensions worried about company stocks exposed to Scotland. But for the time being this is merely “precautionary”, he says. Another wealth manager, Bryan Johnston of Brewin Dophin, says his clients are also seeking advice on precautionary measures in case of a “Yes” vote. Investors are taking out derivatives to hedge against volatility in the pound and equities.
資金外流問題是最令人擔憂的了。尤格夫（YouGov）的民意調查公布之后，勞埃德的股價有了輕微的下滑。英鎊的匯率也有所下跌，盡管這不能完全歸咎于民眾對公投結果的擔憂。一位高級銀行家，來自瑞銀財富管理的比爾·奧尼爾（Bill O'Neill）稱，市場對蘇格蘭獨立可能性的猜測已經從“六分之一上漲至四分之一”，同時還有許多資金以及資產早已從蘇格蘭的銀行賬戶中轉走，這些資產的持有人大多是自有投資個人養老金的人，他們十分擔心公司股票將會完全受控于蘇格蘭。不過目前這樣的行為也僅僅只是“預防措施”而言，他說道。另一位財富經理，來自Brewin Dophin的布萊恩·約翰斯頓（Bill O'Neill）稱，他的客戶同樣也在咨詢蘇格蘭獨立后的預防措施。投資者紛紛拿出金融衍生工具來規避英鎊和資產波動帶來的風險。
If the prospect of a departure worries bankers and investors, of course, an actual one would cause enormous upheaval. Nationalists have set a date of March 2016 to separate from the United Kingdom. That is probably too ambitious. However long the negotiations take, they will be tortuous and ill-tempered. Almost everything, from currency to nuclear weapons, would be on the table, making for a fluid, uncertain picture. Expect the jitters to continue.
如果說光是對獨立前景的預期就愁壞了銀行家和投資者，那么等獨立真正到來的一天定是會造成巨大的社會動蕩。民族主義者們將2016年的3月設定為蘇格蘭脫離英國的獨立日，這個日期可能太雄心勃勃了點。但是不管協商的過程會持續多久，其道路都會是崎嶇的，也許辯論中途還會出現惡語相向。從貨幣到核武器，幾乎所有的事情都將會擺上桌面談，為了達成一個既不固定也不確定的共識而努力。唯一確定的是，動蕩還會繼續。譯者： 朱大素 校對：徐珍
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