On Syria, Russia has repeatedly wielded its UN security-council veto against sanctions and blocked international oversight of Syrian chemical weapons. But it does not seek a confrontation. Perhaps thanks to tough talk from Israel and other countries, it seems not to have delivered advanced air-defence systems to the regime there, or provided personnel to train Syrians. Igor Malashenko, a veteran observer of Russia-American relations, says that unlike the Soviet Union, Russia does not participate in big international affairs largely because it is not prepared to take responsibility for big decisions.

But Russia has drawn a “red line” on the issue of Ukraine's association agreement with the European Union. It has launched a fusillade of trade sanctions to press the case for its rival outfit, the Eurasian Economic Union. Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a periodical, says the main point is anchoring former Soviet republics in Russia's sphere of influence rather than promoting trade. (And having Ukraine in the customs union would be “a guaranteed headache”, like Britain in the EU, he adds.)

But bullying Ukraine is likely to alienate it further and will stoke tension with the EU, which like America has been appalled by Russia's anti-gay law. Germany, once Russia's cheerleader, is now its most vocal critic. That will be bad for business (the EU is by far Russia's biggest trading partner). It may also doom the regime's aim, stoked by self-interest, of persuading the EU to offer visa-free entry for holders of official passports.

Whatever the Kremlin says, members of Russia's educated and affluent middle class continue to look West. Russia's rulers greatest weakness is the lack of anything positive that could attract their own people or outsiders. For all his talk of outfitting Russia for a changing world, Mr Putin chiefly conveys a deep fear of disturbing the fragile status quo. That is pushing the country backwards.