評論
打印
Mark Carney
馬克·卡尼
I mean what I say
“言出必行”
The new governor is struggling to convince sceptical markets
英國銀行新晉領導人正試圖極力說服持懷疑態度的國內市場
CREDIBILITY is treasured by central bankers. It is after all why politicians, who patently lack that precious quality, have entrusted the monetary guardians with the job of taming inflation. But what happens when investors do not believe a supposedly binding central-bank commitment to keep interest rates low?
信譽對于央行行長們來說是極其珍貴的，而這也正是為何那些早已將個人信譽消耗殆盡的政客們委任這些“貨幣守護者”來遏止通貨膨脹的原因。但當投資方不再信任央行曾信誓旦旦“維持國內低利率”的承諾的后果將會是什么？
The answer this week from Mark Carney, the Canadian governor of the Bank of England, was to set out again the case for the forward guidance which had failed to convince the markets when he first delivered it earlier this month. Speaking in Nottingham on August 28th he also announced a relaxation in banks' liquidity requirements to encourage lending. But Mr Carney's speech seemed unlikely to sway the sceptics. They doubt that the bank's base rate, which has been at a three-century low of 0.5% for over four years, will stay there for another three.
而這位加拿大籍英國銀行行長馬克·卡尼于本周作出相關回應，即再次利用他于本月前幾日提出的相關明細著手處理該事——盡管卡尼先生首次提出該提議時在說服相關市場方面收效甚微。他于8月28日在諾丁漢的演說中宣稱，將放寬銀行的貨幣流通需求以此來刺激借貸，但該演說似乎并未打消投資方的疑慮，他們不斷質疑銀行的基本利率在四年之內一直保持三百年來的最低態勢——0.5%仍將持續至下一個三年。
Mr Carney's task is tricky because the bank's forward guidance is about as clear as an insurance policy once the small print has been read. The crucial pledge is that the bank's monetary-policy committee (MPC) will not think about raising interest rates until the unemployment rate, currently 7.8%, falls to 7%. Since the bank's own forecast shows this will take until well into 2016, the MPC is in effect promising to sit on its hands for another three years. But that seemingly straightforward commitment comes with “knockout” clauses. If inflation becomes a threat or financial stability is being endangered, forward guidance will no longer apply.
鑒于英國銀行之前的明細規定，與用極難閱讀的小字印刷的保險理賠條款一般“清晰明確”，卡尼先生的該項策略實屬明智之舉，最為關鍵的是，英國銀行下屬的貨幣政策委員會（monetary-policy committee—MPC）在國家失業率由目前的7.8%下降至7%之前，將不會再提高利率，而由于銀行預測顯示該形式預計在2016年才會有所好轉，若貨幣政策委員會（MPC）履行承諾，那么他們將會在接下來的三年內不再插手該事，然而委員會卻道貌岸然地提出了所謂“淘汰”條款，即當通貨膨脹構成威脅或國家經濟穩定形勢岌岌可危時，之前的規定將不再作數。譯者：尤熠 校對：曾擎禹
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