評(píng)論
打印
Conversation Two
對(duì)話二
Kathy, chaos theory seems to be a branch of physics or mathematics.
凱西，混沌理論貌似是物理學(xué)或數(shù)學(xué)的分支。
You are an economist, so how does it influence your work
你是一名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，那么這對(duì)你的工作有什么影響？
Well, in several ways.
嗯，主要是一下幾方面。
I am responsible for financial development programs in many parts of the world, so forecasting long range trends and making predictions on the basis of present evidence is what I do.
我負(fù)責(zé)全球很多各地區(qū)的金融發(fā)展項(xiàng)目，所以根據(jù)現(xiàn)有的形勢對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢的長遠(yuǎn)規(guī)劃以及預(yù)測就是我的使命。
Chaos theory was developed by scientists, trying to explain the movement of the planets and the changes in environmental conditions.
混沌理論是由科學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)的，用來研究行星運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)和環(huán)境變化。
Both of these things are also about making long-term predictions on the basis of present evidence.
上述的這些都屬于可以預(yù)測未來形勢的現(xiàn)有依據(jù)。
Are many economists involved in this field
這個(gè)領(lǐng)域里有很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家嗎？
An increasing number.
只能說這個(gè)數(shù)量在逐年增加。
In the 1990s, many economists began to look at chaos theory as a way of providing models for forecasting.
20世紀(jì)90年代，很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家開始將混沌理論看做可為預(yù)測提供模型的途徑。
What kind of models are we talking about here
我們所說的這個(gè)模型是指什么？
Well, that's a good question, because the basic idea of chaos theory is that there aren't any models as such there aren't guaranteed forms, but rather patterns of change in development.
哦，問的好。因?yàn)榛煦缋碚摰幕居^點(diǎn)是并沒有成文的具體模型，有的只是在發(fā)展的過程中不斷變化的模式。
Doesn't that mean that forecasting is impossible
這是不是說所謂的預(yù)測是不可能的？
No, but it certainly makes it more of a challenge.
是的，但是正是如此才更具挑戰(zhàn)性。
Mandelbrot, who did the experiment with stock exchanges prices, for example, noted that although the outcomes were variable, there were in fact certain constancy.
曼德博曾對(duì)股票交易價(jià)格進(jìn)行分析，比如說，最后的結(jié)果雖然各有千秋，但是這中間存在某些恒定性。
What we have to do is make sure we know what these are and take into account all the possible variables.
我們需要做的就是確保了解這些因素，并把所有的可能性納入考慮的范圍內(nèi)。
But do economics and finance work in the same way as weather conditions or the movement of planets
那經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融領(lǐng)域的工作都是以氣候變化或行星運(yùn)動(dòng)為參照的嗎？
Well, no, of course not.
不，當(dāng)然不是。
There are certain underlying similarities.
他們只是有潛在的相似之處而已。
But we have to leave them for another time.
下次有時(shí)間咱們?cè)儆懻撨@些。
Questions 13 to 15 are based on the conversation you have just heard.
問題13到15是根據(jù)上面對(duì)話所提出的問題。
Question 13. What is the woman's profession?
問題13 女性的職業(yè)是什么？
Question 14. What was chaos theory supposed to do when it was first formulated?
問題14 混沌理論起先是用來分析什么的？
Question 15. What are the speakers mainly talking about?
問題15 對(duì)話中的兩位主要在談?wù)撌裁矗?/p>
