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Israel and Palestine
以色列和巴勒斯坦
Take a break
僵局再起
The two-state solution is still the only one that makes sense. But it won't happen this time round
目前兩國制仍是解決巴以問題的唯一方式，但這一次依然無法實(shí)現(xiàn)。
IT IS a cliché: every time a worthy mediator, in this case John Kerry, America's secretary of state, sets about ending the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, people say the clock-hand has reached “a minute to midnight”; disaster will follow if the parties fail to agree. By Mr Kerry's timetable, the chimes will ring out dolefully at the end of this month (see article). He may find a last-minute rewinding ploy to keep both sides burbling a bit longer. But there is scant chance, even with that extension, of a two-state deal being done. Mr Kerry has tried his heroic best, but this round of peacemaking is fizzling out.
這已經(jīng)是老生常談了——每當(dāng)有分量的調(diào)停人出現(xiàn)，希望終止巴以沖突時(shí)（這一次的大人物是美國國務(wù)卿克里），人們就知道了，核威脅怕是迫在眉睫了。一旦雙方談崩，便是災(zāi)難的開始。對克里來說，本月底很可能就是哀歌奏響的最終期限。也許他還能找到緩兵之計(jì)，使兩方繼續(xù)談判，但即使再拖下去，兩國制的方針也很難真正實(shí)現(xiàn)。克里已經(jīng)勇敢地做出了最大的嘗試，但這一輪的調(diào)和談判還是以失敗告終了。
Disaster will not immediately follow. As things stand, Israel is not under threat, despite its understandable aversion to the prospect of other states in the Middle East, such as Iran, matching it with nuclear weapons. Israel is a prosperous democracy in a region of chaos and bloodshed. Binyamin Netanyahu, its prime minister (pictured left), is unchallenged. The Palestinians demanding a state are weak, divided and quiescent; morose as they are, few favour a return to suicide-bombing.
不過災(zāi)難也不會瞬間降臨。就現(xiàn)在的情況來看，盡管中東的鄰國，如伊朗，正在向成為核國家邁進(jìn)，但以色列并沒有遭受實(shí)際的威脅。在這片混亂而血腥的土地上，以色列以一個(gè)富饒的民主國家屹立于此。本雅明·內(nèi)塔尼亞胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）作為以色列的總理，他的地位無可爭議。巴勒斯坦也要求成為獨(dú)立國家，盡管他們軟弱、分裂、僵化，且國民性格孤僻，但只有極少數(shù)人還支持自殺式爆炸這種恐怖暴力行為。
Yet Israel cannot afford to be complacent in the longer run, for this stalemate poses a real threat if the country is to preserve its essence as both Jewish and democratic. It cannot stay both, if it indefinitely controls the Palestinian territories and their people while denying them full rights under Israeli law, including the vote. And if the Palestinians were enfranchised, demography suggests that a Greater Israel between the Mediterranean and the Jordan river, including Gaza, would no longer be predominantly Jewish. Israel must give the Palestinians a proper state of their own if it is to remain a Jewish democracy.
但長久來看，以色列無法自給自足。如果它想要保持自己猶太民主國家的本質(zhì)，那么這一次的僵局將對其造成真正的威脅。如果以色列無限期地掌控著巴勒斯坦的領(lǐng)土和人民，卻又根據(jù)以色列的法律拒絕給予他們包括選舉權(quán)在內(nèi)的各項(xiàng)權(quán)利，那它是無法保持既猶太又民主的本質(zhì)的。如果巴勒斯坦公民擁有了選舉權(quán)，那從人口學(xué)上看，地中海到約旦河，包括加沙在內(nèi)的大以色列地區(qū)的大部分人口將不再是猶太人。如果以色列想要以猶太民主國的身份存在，那就必須給巴勒斯坦人應(yīng)有的一個(gè)真正意義上的國家。
Mr Netanyahu knows this. But most of his own Likud party and much of his coalition still roundly reject the two-state idea, and he is loth to face them down. This time, he has added a clutch of extra demands which his predecessors, notably Ehud Barack at Camp David in 2000 and Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem in 2008, saw no need for—on such issues as boundaries, Jerusalem and the Jordan valley, which many in Likud now want to annex. He has let Jewish settlements on the West Bank expand as fast as ever. And he says the Palestinians must first acknowledge Israel as a specifically Jewish state.
內(nèi)塔尼亞胡明白這一點(diǎn)。但他所在的右翼利庫德黨（Likud party）和他所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的政府仍然堅(jiān)決抵制兩國制的想法，他本人也不愿說服反對者。這一次，他還在談判中附帶了更多的要求，如兩國邊界問題，耶路撒冷和約旦峽谷問題，這都是利庫德黨中很多人想要吞并的地區(qū)，但內(nèi)達(dá)尼亞胡的前任們，主要是埃胡德·巴拉克（Ehud Barack）和埃胡德·奧爾默特（Ehud Olmert）分別在2000年的大衛(wèi)營和2008年的耶路撒冷就已經(jīng)看出這些要求是沒有意義的。他讓約旦河西岸地區(qū)的猶太人定居點(diǎn)通過去一樣快速擴(kuò)大，同時(shí)他還認(rèn)為巴基斯坦人應(yīng)最首先認(rèn)可以色列是一個(gè)獨(dú)立的猶太國家。
The Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas (pictured right), says he cannot submit to such demands as a precondition. He would be ditched by his own people if he were to cast Israel's Arabs (who are a fifth of Israeli citizens) into what they see as a second-class status and to disavow the Palestinians' claimed “right of return” to Israel proper. The fact that the Palestinians will have to climb down in the final stage of any deal only adds, like the Israeli demands, to a sense of bluster.
巴勒斯坦領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人馬哈茂德·阿巴斯（Mahmoud Abbas）表示，他無法接受這些作為前提條件的要求。如果他將以色列的阿拉伯人（以色列的第五類公民）算入二等公民，并否認(rèn)巴勒斯坦人宣稱的回到以色列的合法權(quán)利，那么他將被自己的人民所拋棄。事實(shí)是，巴勒斯坦人將在談判的最后階段一味妥協(xié)，這只會增加民憤，而這正是以色列希望看到的。
In an ideal world, Mr Netanyahu, a clever populist, would emulate the late Ariel Sharon by abandoning his party's right wing and the rejectionists within his coalition in order to forge a new ruling coalition genuinely committed to the two-state option; the Knesset arithmetic would let him do so. And Mr Abbas would step down in favour of a more dynamic leader, such as Marwan Barghouti , imprisoned in an Israeli jail for murder: he helped organise a bloody uprising. That, though, might give him the clout to drag the Palestinians into making painful but game-changing concessions.
理想情況是，內(nèi)塔尼亞胡作為一個(gè)高明的平民主義者，應(yīng)效仿已故的以色列前總理阿里爾·沙龍（Ariel Sharon），拋棄利庫德黨的右翼主義和政府內(nèi)的反對派，以建立一個(gè)新的支持兩國制的統(tǒng)治集團(tuán)，以色列議會也會支持他這樣做的。而阿巴斯也應(yīng)主動(dòng)退位，推舉更有活力的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人上臺，如因謀殺罪入獄的馬爾萬·巴爾古提（Marwan Barghouti）。他曾幫助組織了一起血腥的起義，但這讓他有一定的影響力去迫使巴勒斯坦做出一些痛苦但具有轉(zhuǎn)折性的讓步和妥協(xié)。
Instead, both sides are embarking on a blame game. Neither will win. The Palestinians are still stateless—and their prospective state is getting smaller. The Israelis face not just the growing opprobrium of the outside world, boycotts and all, but also the prospect of missing another opportunity to ensure the survival of a country that is both democratic and Jewish.
但現(xiàn)在，巴以兩方都在相互指責(zé)，最終只會導(dǎo)致兩敗俱傷。巴勒斯坦至今仍沒有主權(quán)，而且未來的希望也變得越來越渺茫。以色列也不僅要面對外界越來越多的指責(zé)和抵制，還可能再一次失去保留猶太民主國特性的機(jī)會。譯者 王安廬
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