評論
打印
Britain in Iraq
英國，在伊拉克
Cameron's confusions
卡梅倫的困惑
The government flip-flops between belligerence and caution
政府在交戰和警告間猶豫不決
HOW seriously does the British government take the threat from Islamic State (IS), an extremist group which has taken over swathes of Iraq and Syria? Despite a flurry of pronouncements from the prime minister and from Michael Fallon, Britain's defence secretary, it is growing increasingly hard to judge.
英國政府究竟對來自伊斯蘭國（IS）這一占領了伊拉克和敘利亞的極端組織的威脅有多認真？盡管有首相和英國國防部長邁克爾·法倫的一系列聲明，這一事態還是變得越來越難以琢磨了。
Writing in a newspaper on August 17th, David Cameron warned that Britain faces a “generational struggle” against a “poisonous ideology”. Striking a Churchillian tone, the prime minister argued that Britain's very security depended on the country using all its resources, aid, diplomacy and “military prowess” to vanquish this enemy. Tough stuff—perhaps the toughest from any Western leader so far.
大衛·卡梅倫于8月17日在報上撰文警告說，英國面臨著“代際斗爭”和“有毒思想”的抗衡。這位首相帶著驚人的丘吉爾語氣爭論說英國的安全取決于國家能否使用全部的資源、援助、外交和“軍事力量”來擊潰敵人。手段強硬—這可能是到目前為止西方領導人中最強硬的了。
Yet before leaving on holiday the following day Mr Cameron assured journalists that this fiery rhetoric did not mean Britain was returning to war in Iraq, and that he had no intention to put “boots on the ground” against IS. That was before the release of a horrific video on August 19th showing the beheading of a captured American journalist, James Foley, by an IS militant who appeared to have a British accent. Mr Cameron rushed back from his break in Cornwall to confer with ministers in London.
然而第二天，在外出度假前卡梅倫向記者保證說這種激烈的言辭并不意味著英國要在伊拉克重燃起戰火，他并沒有“派兵”對抗IS的意圖。這是在8月19號美國記者詹姆斯·福利被一疑似有英國口音的IS成員斬首的恐怖錄像發布之前了。卡梅倫立即結束了在康沃爾的度假，返回與倫敦的大臣們協商。
Confusion already surrounds the work Britain's armed forces are presently performing in Iraq. Tornado bombers, helicopters, a spy plane, and some special forces are all operating in the north of the country—in particular near the city of Mosul. The government has said these efforts are merely humanitarian, intended to help refugees besieged by IS fighters (see picture). Yet on August 18th Mr Fallon was reported to have said that British forces were performing reconnaissance missions for Kurdish soldiers battling the jihadists. Some think Britain is also supplying the Kurds with communications equipment and training.
關于英國武裝力量目前在伊拉克的工作已招致了不少疑問。旋風式轟炸機、直升機、間諜機和一些特殊武力正在伊拉克北方—尤其在摩蘇爾附近—進行操練。政府表示這些行為僅僅是人道主義的，目的是為了幫助被IS分子圍困的難民（見圖）。然而在8月18號，有報道稱法倫曾表示英國武裝力量在幫助庫爾德士兵進行偵察任務以對抗圣戰者。一些人認為英國也在為庫爾德人提供通訊設備和訓練。
What explains this prevarication? Mr Cameron is doubtless eager to avoid a repeat of the fiasco last year, when the House of Commons voted against his urging that British forces intervene against the murderous regime of Syria's President Assad. As well as shattering Western resolve, the episode was a personal humiliation for the prime minister. If the government sounds too bellicose pressure will grow to recall parliament, currently in its summer recess, for a full debate.
這種搪塞該如何解釋？卡梅倫毫無疑問急于避免重復去年的慘敗，當時眾議院投票反對他催促英國軍方介入敘利亞總統阿薩德恐怖統治的要求。正如粉碎西方的決心一樣，這一插曲是對首相的個人羞辱。如果政府看起來過于好戰，那么過大的壓力會召回目前正處于夏季休會的議會成員來進行一次完整的辯論。
Another risk is that Mr Cameron's pronouncements outstrip America's eagerness to act, leaving Britain isolated should the Obama administration commit itself no further. And the prime minister also has a war-weary public to contend with. Polls suggest that a large minority of Britons would support taking some limited action against IS, such as arming the Kurds. But winning public support for a larger scale conflict, however worthy the cause, looks almost impossible at present.
另一風險是卡梅倫的聲明超過了美國作戰的熱情，若奧巴馬政府不愿進一步行動，便會使英國處于孤立地位。卡梅倫還需應對厭戰的公眾。投票顯示大部分英國人支持對IS采取有限的行動，比如說為庫爾德人提供武裝。但無論理由看起來多么值得，要贏得公眾支持大規模戰爭在目前看起來幾乎還是不可能。
Mr Foley's murder may change this. His hooded killer's London accent has focused attention on the thousands of European—and particularly British—Muslims which IS has drawn to its banner. Thomas Hegghammer of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment argues that this represents the “largest European Muslim foreign fighter contingent” that has gone to any conflict in modern history. As many as 500 of them are thought to be British. The clear risk is that these callow, inexperienced volunteers will return home as hardened and skilful jihadists, ready, as Mr Cameron puts it, to “target us on the streets of Britain”.
福利的謀殺一事可能改變這一情況。這位帶有頭罩的殺手的倫敦口音引起了成千歐洲—尤其是英國—穆斯林的注意，這些穆斯林已被IS招至旗下。挪威國防研究院的托馬斯·黑哥海默稱這代表著“最大的歐洲穆斯林國外戰斗隊伍”已參與現代史中的每一次沖突。其中多達500人被認為是英國人。很明顯的風險是這些初出茅廬、毫無經驗的志愿者們將成長為久經沙場、技巧純熟的圣戰者歸來，如卡梅倫所說，這些人已做好準備“在英國大街上對我們開槍”。
Experts disagree on the scale of that threat. But even a very small number of returning extremists could cause considerable harm. After haring back to Whitehall, the prime minister said authorities would redouble efforts to track down British jihadists, and that the grisly video would not lead Britain to ramp up its involvement in the conflict. There is a limit to how long Mr Cameron can keep his options open.
專家對這一威脅的規模持有異議。但即便歸來的極端主義者 數目非常小，也能造成嚴重的傷害。在急忙趕回白廳后，卡梅倫表示當局將付出雙倍努力搜查圣戰者，這一可怕的錄像也不會使英國進一步介入沖突之中。卡梅倫能保持選擇權多久是有限度的。譯者：王穎 校對：毛慧
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