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Argentina defaults
阿根廷債務違約
Eighth time unlucky
不走運，第八次了
Cristina Fernandez argues that her country's latest default is different. She is missing the point
克里斯蒂娜·費爾南德斯稱，她國家最近的債務違約跟以前可不一樣。她沒說到點子上
ARGENTINA'S first bond, issued in 1824, was supposed to have a lifespan of 46 years. Less than four years later, the government defaulted. Resolving the ensuing stand-off with creditors took 29 years. Since then seven more defaults have followed, the most recent this week, when Argentina failed to make a payment on bonds issued as partial compensation to victims of the previous default, in 2001.
1824年，阿根廷第一次發行債券，原本預期期限為46年。結果不到四年，阿根廷政府就出現了債務違約。處理跟隨之而來與債權人的緊張關系花了29年。從那以后，又發生了七次債務違約。最近一次發生在本周，阿根廷無法償付重組債券，導致了此次債務違約。這些債券原本是作為對前一次2001年債務違約中受損投資人的部分補償。
Most investors think they can see a pattern in all this, butArgentina's president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, insists the latest default is not like the others. Her government, she points out, had transferred the full 539m it owed to the banks that administer the bonds. It isAmerica's courts (the bonds were issued under American law) that blocked the payment, at the behest of the tiny minority of owners of bonds from 2001 who did not accept the restructuringArgentinaoffered them in 2005 and again in 2010. These “hold-outs”, balking at the 65% haircut the restructuring entailed, not only persuaded a judge that they should be paid in full but also got him to freeze payments on the restructured bonds untilArgentinacoughs up.
許多投資人認為，他們能從中看出規律了。但是，阿根廷總統，克里斯蒂娜·費爾南德斯·德基什內爾堅稱，最近一次債務違約跟以往的完全不同。她說，她的政府，已經向管理債券的銀行全額匯去了所欠的5.39億美元，阻撓償付的，是美國法院（這些債券是依照美國法律發行的）。一小撮2001年債券的持有者，不愿意接受阿根廷在2005年和2010年提出的債務重組方案，是他們要求美國法院作出了這樣的裁決。這些“釘子戶”，不愿意接受重組方案65%的債務削減，他們不僅說服了法官裁決阿根廷要全額償還欠他們的歷史債務，而且還讓法官凍結了阿根廷對其它重組債務的償付，直到阿根廷妥協為止。
Argentinaclaims that paying the hold-outs was impossible. It is not just that they are “vultures” as Argentine officials often put it, who bought the bonds for cents on the dollar after the previous default and are now holding those who accepted the restructuring (accounting for 93% of the debt) to ransom. The main problem is that a clause in the restructured bonds prohibitsArgentinafrom offering the hold-outs better terms without paying everyone else the same. Since it cannot afford to do that, it says it had no choice but to default.
阿根廷稱，不可能付錢給那些“釘子戶”。這不光是因為這些人都是“禿鷲”，阿根廷官員常這么叫他們，這些人在上一次發生債務違約后，以極大的折扣購入了債券；還因為他們現在把那些已經接受重組方案的債權人（占債務的95%）綁為人質。問題的關鍵，就在于重組債券中的一項條款，讓阿根廷不能在其他債權人未得到同等待遇的前提下，給“釘子戶”開出更好的條件。由于無法承受對所有債權人全額償付債務，阿根廷說自己別無選擇，只能違約。
Yet it is not certain that the clause requiring equal treatment of all bondholders would have applied, given that Argentinawould not have been paying the hold-outs voluntarily, but on the courts' orders. Moreover, some owners of the restructured bonds had agreed to waive their rights; had Argentinamade a concerted effort to persuade the remainder to do the same, it might have succeeded. Lawyers and bankers have suggested various ways around the clause in question, which expires at the end of the year. But Argentina's government was slow to consider these options or negotiate with the hold-outs, hiding instead behind indignant nationalism.
然而，不能確定此要求對所有債權持有人同等待遇的條款適用，因為阿根廷不是自愿償付那些“釘子戶”，而是在法庭命令下不得不這么做。而且，一些重組債券持有人已經同意放棄追索權益；如果阿根廷努力勸服其它人也放棄追索權益，可能會成功。許多律師和銀行家提出了許多方式繞過爭議條款，而且該條款到今年年底就失效了。但是，阿根廷政府沒能認真考慮這些選擇，也沒努力跟“釘子戶”談判，而是躲在滿腔義憤的民族主義身后。
Don't try to flee, Argentina
阿根廷別想著逃避
Ms Fernandez is right that the consequences ofAmerica's court rulings have been perverse, unleashing a big financial dispute in an attempt to solve a relatively small one. But hers is not the first government to be hit with an awkward verdict. Instead of railing against it, she should have tried to minimise the harm it did. Defaulting has helped no one: none of the bondholders will now be paid,Argentinalooks like a pariah again, and its economy will remain starved of loans and investment.
費爾南德斯女士稱，美國法院判決造成的后果是不公正的，是為了解決小的金融問題，而觸發大的金融爭端。她說的沒錯。但是，這已不是第一次有政府遭遇古怪判決了。與其跟判決對著干，她本該試著將損害最小化。債務違約幫不了任何人：現在所有債權人都不能得到償付，阿根廷聲譽再一次嚴重受損，其經濟依舊得不到貸款和投資。
Happily, much of the damage can still be undone. It is not too late to strike a deal with the hold-outs or back an ostensibly private effort to buy out their claims. A quick fix would make it easier forArgentinato borrow again internationally. That, in turn, would speed development of big oil and gas deposits, the income from which could help ease its money troubles.
好消息是，多數損害還沒有造成?，F在跟“釘子戶”達成協議，或是私下讓他們表面上放棄全額清償追索，還為時未晚。一次權宜之計能讓阿根廷再次在國際市場上借錢更容易。而這，能加快對豐富石油和天然氣資源的開發，由之而來的收入，能緩解阿根廷的資金困境。
More important, it would help to change perceptions ofArgentinaas a financial rogue state. Over the past year or so Ms Fernandez seems to have been trying to rehabilitateArgentina's image and resuscitate its faltering economy. She settled financial disputes with government creditors and with Repsol, a Spanish oil firm whose Argentine assets she had expropriated in 2012. This week's events have overshadowed all that. For its own sake, and everyone else's,Argentinashould hold its nose and do a deal with the hold-outs.
更重要的是，這能改變阿根廷作為金融流氓國家的形象。過去一年左右，費爾南德斯女士似乎在努力重塑阿根廷形象，努力讓搖搖擺擺的經濟復蘇。她解決了跟政府債權人的金融爭端，以及跟西班牙石油公司Repsol的爭端，費爾南德斯2012年曾沒收該公司在阿根廷的資產。本周的事件讓所有這些都蒙上了陰影。為了自己，也為了別人，阿根廷應該捏住鼻子，忍住厭惡，跟“釘子戶”達成協議。譯者：王力鵬
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