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The euro zone
歐元區
That sinking feeling (again)
那種再次下沉的感覺
If Germany, France and Italy cannot find a way to refloat Europe's economy, the euro may yet be doomed
如果德國、法國和意大利找不到辦法重振歐洲經濟，歐元就完蛋了
JUST a few months ago the euro zone's leaders believed that, having weathered the storm, they were set fair at last. Buoyed by the promise of Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, to do “whatever it takes” to support the currency, confidence had seeped back into the continent. Growth seemed to be returning, albeit at a slow pace. Troubled peripheral countries were recovering, after bail-outs and painful measures to cut budget deficits and improve competitiveness. Unemployment, especially among the young, was still desperately high, but at least in most countries it was falling. And bond spreads had narrowed sharply, as financial markets stopped betting that the euro would fall apart.
就在幾個月前，歐元區領導人堅信，經受住了這場風暴，他們最終能取得勝利。歐洲中央銀行行長馬里奧?德拉吉承諾無論付出多少代價都會支持歐元，德吉拉的承諾鼓舞了歐洲人民，歐洲人民的自信又回來了。經濟增長似乎在恢復，盡管是以較小的步伐。通過緊急財政援助和痛苦的措施來減少財政赤字，提高競爭力，遭難的周邊國家經濟也在復蘇。失業率，尤其在年輕人中還是相當高的，但是至少在大多數國家該比率都在下降。隨著金融市場停止認為歐元會崩潰，票面利差急劇縮小。
It was an illusion. In recent weeks the countries of the euro zone have begun to take in water once again. Their collective GDP stagnated in the second quarter: Italy fell back into outright recession, French GDP was flat and even mighty Germany saw an unexpectedly large fall in output (see article). The third quarter looks pretty unhealthy, partly because the euro zone will suffer an extra drag from Western sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, inflation has fallen perilously low, to around 0.4%, far below the near-2% target of the European Central Bank, raising fears that the zone as a whole could fall prey to entrenched deflation. German bond yields are hovering below 1%, another harbinger of falling prices. The euro zone stands (or wobbles) in stark contrast with America and Britain, whose economies are enjoying sustained growth.
這是一個錯覺。最近幾個星期，歐元區國家已經再一次開始吸水。他們所有GDP第二季度原地踏步：意大利徹底掉回衰退時期水平，法國GDP持平，即使是強大的德國也出人意料在出口方面大幅下降（另見文章）。第三季度的狀況看起來相當不樂觀，部分原因是因為歐元區會受到西方國家對俄羅斯制裁的阻力。同時，通貨膨脹率降低幅度太小，只有0.4％左右，遠低于歐洲中央銀行的2％目標，引起了人們的恐慌，人們擔心歐元區作為一個整體會成為根深蒂固通貨緊縮的犧牲品。德國公債利息在1％以下徘徊，這是另一個價格下降的征兆。歐元區與英美完全相反，英美的經濟正在持續增長。
What started more than four years ago as a banking and sovereign-debt crisis has decayed into a growth crisis that is now enveloping the three biggest economies. Germany is teetering on the edge of recession. France is mired in stagnation. Italy's GDP is barely above its level when the single currency came in 15 years ago. Since these three countries account for two-thirds of euro-zone GDP, growth in places like Spain and the Netherlands cannot make up for their torpor.
四年多以前開始的銀行業和國債危機衰退為經濟增長危機，這個危機現在包圍著這三大經濟體。德國在經濟衰退的邊緣搖晃。法國陷于經濟停滯的困境。意大利GDP水平只略高于15年前歐元剛出現時的水平。因為這三個國家占了歐元區總GDP的2／3，西班牙和荷蘭地區的增長不能彌補他們的經濟呆滯。
The underlying causes of Europe's new ills are three very familiar and interrelated problems. First, there is a shortage of political leaders with the courage and conviction to push through structural reforms to improve competitiveness and, eventually, reignite growth: the big countries have wasted the two years bought by Mr Draghi's “whatever it takes” commitment. Second, public opinion is not convinced of the urgent need for deep and radical changes. And third, despite Mr Draghi's efforts, the monetary and fiscal framework is too tight, throttling growth—which makes structural reforms harder.
歐洲新問題的根本原因在于三個非常相似相互關聯的問題。首先，缺少一個有勇氣和威信的政治領導人，推動結構性改革來提高競爭力，最終重新獲得增長活力：大國已經浪費了兩年時間為德拉吉“無論付出多少代價”的承諾付出了代價。第二個問題是，民眾不相信急切需要深入徹底的改變。第三，雖然有德拉吉的努力，貨幣和財政結構太緊，抑制了經濟增長——這使得結構性改革更為艱難。
Different manifestations of these problems can be seen across the euro zone. But the country that most dramatically epitomises all three is France. This week its embattled Socialist president, Fran?ois Hollande, was forced to reshuffle his government to eject Arnaud Montebourg who, despite being economy minister, was his own side's most persistent critic from the left (see article). Mr Hollande, who came to office in 2012 promising a painless future, is hardly a Thatcherite reformer. But since he appointed Manuel Valls as prime minister in March, he has at least embraced the principle of public-spending cuts, lower taxes and structural reforms
這些問題在歐元區不同地方有不同的表現。但是三個國家中最有代表性的是法國。本周，處境艱難的社會黨主席弗朗索瓦?奧朗德被迫進行政府改組，以便將身為經濟部長卻一直是他自己的左翼陣營中最堅決的批評者的阿諾德·蒙特布爾排擠出內閣。奧朗德2012年入職，承諾會給人民帶來一個美好的未來，他幾乎稱不上是一個撒切爾夫人的改革者。但是自從他三月任命曼紐爾瓦爾斯為首相后，他至少堅持減少政府開支、降低稅收和結構性改革的原則。
In theory a new and more cohesive reforming government could make progress, but public opinion is not remotely prepared for that. Mr Hollande is not just deeply unpopular; unlike Italy's Matteo Renzi, who has bravely made the case for (as yet undelivered) tough reforms, the French president has failed to convince voters that painful change, including a reduction in the size of the state, is inevitable. Instead, Mr Montebourg and his chums offer the beguiling notion that, if only the euro zone scraps its rules and allows bigger budget deficits and generous enough public spending, no more painful reforms will be needed, because the economy will miraculously lift itself out of danger by its own bootstraps.
理論上一個新的更團結的改革政府可以獲得成功，但是公眾輿論完全沒有準備。而且這位法國總統還始終沒能讓選民相信，像縮減政府規模這樣的痛苦的改革是無法避免的。在這一點上，意大利的馬泰奧·倫齊就同奧朗德有所不同，他一直在大膽地為艱苦的改革（盡管尚未付諸行動）尋找理由。相反，蒙特布爾及其密友給出了一個具有欺騙性的概念，稱只要歐元區打破規則允許更大的預算赤字和更足夠的政府開支，就不需要令人痛苦的改革，因為經濟會奇跡般地自己脫離險境。
Mr Montebourg's argument is all the more seductive because he is right about Europe's third problem: excessive austerity, largely forced on the continent by Germany. Mr Draghi has just implicitly conceded that fiscal and monetary policy in the euro zone is too tight at the annual economics jamboree in Jackson Hole. He hinted that he was in favour of quantitative easing, which both America and Britain have used, and he called for fiscal policy to do more to encourage growth—a message plainly aimed at Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel. She is the leader who insists most firmly on sticking to the euro zone's rules on fiscal discipline, just as it is the German Bundesbank that is most strongly against quantitative easing.
蒙特布爾的觀點更引人注目，因為他關于歐洲地第三個問題是正確的：過分的緊縮，主要在德國強迫執行。 德吉拉在杰克遜霍爾的一年一度經濟學大會上含蓄地承認歐元區財政和貨幣政策太緊。他暗示道，他支持量化寬松，這個政策也是英美都曾使用過的，他呼吁制定更多鼓勵增長的政策——這是一個明顯針對德國總理安吉拉?默克爾的消息。默克爾是最堅持歐元區財政紀律的領導人，好像德國聯邦銀行是最強烈反對量化寬松一樣。
Angie, we can say you never tried
安吉，我們可以說你從沒有努力過
Despite the gloom, there should be scope here for a bargain. If Mr Hollande and Mr Renzi can show they are sincere about structural reforms, Mrs Merkel should be willing to tolerate an easier fiscal stance (including higher public investment in Germany) and a looser monetary policy. Close your eyes, and you can imagine the three leaders working with the European Commission to complete the single market and pushing through a trade deal with the United States. Sadly, in the real world, Mrs Merkel has little reason to trust either France or Italy: whenever external pressure on them has eased, they have promptly backtracked on promises of reform. And she has just installed Jean-Claude Juncker, the do-nothing candidate, as president of the European Commission.
雖然局勢艱難，但是應該還有討價還價的空間。如果奧朗德和里茲能證明他們對結構性改革的真誠，默克爾可能愿意容忍更寬松的財政觀點（包括在德國更高的公共投資）以及更寬松的貨幣政策。閉上眼睛，你能想像三位領導人和歐洲委員會共同努力完成單一市場，完成和美國的貿易協定。傷感的是，在現實世界里，默克爾沒有理由相信法國和意大利：只要外部壓力一松懈，他們立刻就會收回改革的承諾。而且她剛剛任命無所作為的珍-克勞德客容為歐洲委員會會長。
So it will be hard. But without a new push from the continent's leaders, growth will not revive and deflation could take hold. Japan suffered a decade of lost growth in the 1990s, and is still struggling. But, unlike Japan, Europe is not a single cohesive country. If the currency union brings nothing but stagnation, joblessness and deflation, then some people will eventually vote to leave the euro. Thanks to Mr Draghi's promise to put a floor under government debt, the market risk that financial pressures could trigger a break-up has receded. But the political risk that one or more countries decide to storm out of the single currency is rising all the time. The euro crisis has not gone away; it is just waiting over the horizon.
所以，這會很難。但是沒有州領導人新的推動，增長不會復蘇，通貨緊縮會持續。日本在20世紀90年代曾遭受十年的增長緩滯，而且現在還在努力。但是，不同于日本，歐洲不是結合在一起的一個國家。如果貨幣聯盟只帶來經濟停滯、失業和通貨緊縮，有人最終會投票離開該聯盟。多虧了德拉吉承諾支撐著政府負債，財政壓力會導致解體的市場危機減弱了。但是一個或多個國家決定沖出單一貨幣的政治危險一直在上升。歐元危機還沒有離開，它只是在地平線上等著而已。 翻譯：王丹培
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