亞洲中國
Housing
房產
Why grumble?
為何怨聲載道？
silver lining to the housing cloud
房產疑云的一線希望
JUST how bad is China's housing bubble? One important measure—the most important for those trying to get a foot on the property ladder—is affordability. Many believe that Chinese housing prices have soared well beyond the reach of ordinary people. There is some truth to that. But a closer look at the data reveals a more complex picture. The Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister company, created a city-level index to track the relation between housing prices and incomes across China. Two points stand out.
中國房地產泡沫有多嚴重？要衡量這個問題，經濟可承受性是一重要指標，它是人們試圖在購買住宅的重中之重。許多人相信，中國的房屋價格飆升到了一個常人難以企及的地步。這大約是正確的。不過對數據的進一步觀察揭示了一個更為復雜的局面。我們的兄弟公司，經濟學人智庫開發了一個基于城市層面的指數，它可以追蹤中國房價與收入的關系。有兩點十分引人注目。
First, the country's biggest cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, with populations of more than 10m, are in a class of their own in terms of unaffordability (see chart; for full results go to our website). Homes are markedly cheaper in almost all slightly smaller cities, even though they have millions of residents. The price of a 100-square-metre house is on average 14-fold higher than annual household incomes in mega-cities. For cities with populations of less than 10m, the price to income ratio is eight. It thus makes sense for China's cities to tailor their housing policies to their own needs; some must focus on building more subsidised homes, while others need to attract new residents to occupy their many homes now standing empty.
首先，中國諸如北京、上海此類的大城市擁有超過1千萬的人口，他們處于無法負擔房價的那個層次（如表所示；去我們的網站可以看到完整版）。幾乎所有的較小城市中，即使擁有幾百萬人口，房價也要明顯地便宜。在大城市里，一處100平方米的住宅價格平均超過了家庭年收入的14倍。那些人口少于1000萬的城市，房價與收入的比率是8。因此，中國的城市為了迎合他們自身的需求而調整房屋政策是一件有意義的事情；一些城市必須注重經濟適用房的建設，同時其他城市需要吸引新居民去消費大量空房。
Second, regardless of city size, housing has become more affordable over the past four years throughout China. At the peak, in April 2010, house prices on average were nearly 12 times household incomes; that has dropped to less than nine times today. Prices are higher than in many developing countries, but they are not wildly divergent.
第二，不考慮城市的規模的情況下，縱觀全國，過去四年中人們更加能負擔得起住宅費用。2010年4月達到最頂峰，此時住宅售價是家庭年收入近12倍；這個比率已經降到如今的不足9倍。發展中國家的房價比較高，但是中國的房價比之其他發展中國家也高不了多少。
The apparent improvement in affordability does not tally with the perception of many Chinese. But the official price data used in constructing this index show that people are adjusting to high inner-city prices by buying homes that are ever farther from urban centres. That may not be especially painful: suburbs are increasingly well-connected by roads and railways.
經濟可承受性的明顯改善與中國人的感知并不完全相符。但是，我們的指標用上了官方的數據，這些數據顯示人們通過購買遠離市中心的住房來適應高昂的中心城區房價。這也許不會特別痛苦，因為市郊正越來越多地與大路和鐵路緊密相連。
The bigger concern, especially in smaller cities, is that China suffers from an oversupply of housing. So many homes have been built that prices in such cities are now declining quickly relative to incomes. That is desirable. But a big, sudden rise in affordability could pose considerable risks to the financial system, which is heavily exposed to loans made to the property sector. So far, at least, China has yet to experience the pain of a property-market crash.
另外有一個大問題，中國面臨著住宅供大于求的糟糕局面，特別是在較小的城市中。這么多的住房竣工落成，而這些城市里的房價正相對于收入迅速下跌。這本讓人高興不已。但是經濟可承受性短時間內大幅度的升高會對金融系統造成相當大的風險，特別是那些投放在房地產市場的貸款。到目前為止，至少還沒有歷經房地產崩潰的痛苦。譯者：盧意 校對：伍豪
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