評論
打印
French elections
法國省議會選舉
Menage a trios
三雄爭霸
The National Front's strength makes French politics a three-way affair
極右翼國民前線實力增強，法國政治陷三雄爭霸局面
SOMETIMES small elections are markers of major political change.France's latest vote, a two-round ballot on March 22nd and 29th to elect deputies to the 98 assemblies of France's “departments”, may well turn out to be just such an election. On the face of it, the outcome will be a straightforward victory for the centre-right, led by Nicolas Sarkozy, a former president. In reality, it marks a shift in France from alternating two-party politics to a more fluid tripartite system.
有時小型選舉可以導致重大的政治變化。22日和29日，法國分別舉行了第一輪和第二輪98個省議會的議員選舉投票。這次選舉極有可能正中其說。表面來看，由法國前總統尼克拉斯·薩科齊領導的中右翼派將在選舉中獲得直接勝利。但實際上，這次選舉標志著法國由兩黨輪流執政向更加不固定的三黨制的轉變。
The first element in this new political order is the performance of the populist National Front (FN), with its anti-immigration, anti-Europe and anti-establishment message. The party's combative leader, Marine Le Pen, had hoped it would come top in first-round voting and become, in her words, “the first party ofFrance”. In the end, Mr Sarkozy's UMP scored 29%, while the FN finished second with 25%, short of the triumph she had hoped for.
奉行民粹主義的國民前線在選舉中的言行是造成這種政治新格局的首要因素。此前，該黨宣揚三反政策（反移民、反歐洲和反政府），其斗志昂揚的領導人馬琳·勒龐希望該黨在首輪選舉中斬獲第一，用她的話說，“成為法國第一大黨”。而結果呢，以薩科齊為首的右翼派人民運動聯盟贏得29%的票數，而國民前線以25%的票數位居第二，并未達到勒龐所希冀的大勝。
For some commentators, this amounted to a defeat. Manuel Valls, the Socialist prime minister whose party came third with 21%, reportedly lit a cigar to celebrate the FN's failure to place first. It was, he said, an “honourable” result for his party, and he congratulated “republican” voters for rejecting a party which, he judges, does not share the country's founding values. Certainly the polls, which had predicted Ms Le Pen's party would win about 30%, turned out to have been a poor guide, in part because voter turnout was higher than usual for this sort of election.
有些評論員認為這相當于失敗告終。社會黨以21%的票數居于第三，據報道，該黨成員曼紐爾·瓦爾斯總理點燃一根雪茄，慶祝國民前線名列第一夢破碎。他表示，此種結果對其政黨來說是一大幸事，并且他祝賀“擁護共和政體”的選民：他們沒有支持他個人認為不具有法國最初價值觀的政黨。不可否認的是，民意調查曾預測以勒龐為首的政黨會以30%左右的票數獲勝，但事實證明它起了錯誤的導向作用，這主要因為此類選舉的投票人數多于以往數量。
Yet it is a measure of how far the FN has come to shape the French political debate that her result could be considered a disappointment. It was the party's best-ever score at national level, just above that achieved at European elections in 2014. The party came top in nearly half the country's departments, including some of the rural constituencies that have become its new frontier. In the run-offs, the FN is set to pick up scores of councillors, up from just two in 2011.
然而，這可以衡量國民前線對于其選舉結果是否令選民大失所望之爭的作用大小。該結果是該黨在國家級競選史上的最好成績，超過2014年的歐洲選舉成果。國民前線掌控了近半數省份，其中包括一些邊遠的鄉村新選區。決選時期，國民前線很可能贏得幾十個議員的支持，一改2011年僅僅兩位的記錄。
In other words, the FN is transforming itself from a fringe movement that throws up periodic freak results into a regular feature of French politics, with the electoral ups and downs that this implies. This increasingly makes it an alternative opposition party to the governing Socialists, with a solid quarter or so of voters. Such a position is all the more remarkable given that the UMP's first-place score was achieved only thanks to an alliance with the UDI and Modem, two centrist parties.
換言之，國民前線不斷提升自身實力，由產生周期性反常結果的邊緣運動向法國的固定政黨轉變，這表現出選舉勝敗無常的道理。這種轉變讓該黨日益成為與穩拿1/4左右票數的執政黨社會黨輪流執政的反對黨。右翼派人民運動聯盟與獨立民主聯盟、Modem兩個中間派組成競選聯盟，鑒于此，國民前線獲得如此地位實屬非凡。
All the same, Mr Sarkozy will take comfort from the result, which is likely to hand his party a sweeping victory in the second round. Hitherto the ex-president's political comeback had been faltering. Mr Sarkozy was elected UMP chief last November on the back of a lower-than-expected score, and has struggled to convince a divided party and its centre-right voters that he is the leader of the future. The latest result will strengthen his hand, and his chances of securing the party's presidential nomination for elections in 2017.
而此結果依然會讓薩科齊感到欣慰，它有可能在第二輪投票中促成其政黨大獲全勝。至今，這位前任總統是否會東山再起仍是不定之事。去年十一月，薩科齊在票數低于預期的情況下當選人民運動聯盟主席，他經百般努力，試圖讓這個四分五裂的政黨及其中右翼派選民相信他是未來的領導者。最新投票結果將增強其影響力，加大其穩獲2017年總統大選黨內提名的機會。
As for President Fran?ois Hollande, the result was a downright humiliation, however much Mr Valls tried to argue otherwise. The Socialists are set for crushing losses in the second round–they have lost every mid-term election since Mr Hollande took office. This election exposes a cruel calculation on the left, as the party turns its eyes towards 2017. The Socialists' poor score reflects a failure in most constituencies to join up with the Greens and other parties of the left. If the party has any hope of making it into the presidential run-off in 2017, it needs friends. Yet the ideological differences between the moderates around Mr Valls and the rest of the French left have never looked so wide, nor the chances of bridging them so slim.
對弗朗索瓦·奧朗德總統來說，無論瓦爾斯總理怎樣另找說辭，選舉結果絕對是一大恥辱。社會黨準備好在第二輪中迎接徹底的失敗——自奧朗德執政以來，在所有的中期選舉中，社會黨無一勝出。雖然該黨將目光轉向2017年，但這次省議會選舉暴露了盤算左翼派的殘忍方法。社會黨贏得的可憐票數反映出其未能聯合在大部分選區的綠黨和左翼派其他政黨。如果該黨希望參加2017年的總統決選，那么它需要朋友。然而，瓦爾斯總理身邊的溫和派與法國左翼派其他人士之間的意識形態從未產生過如此大的差異，而減少差異的機會也是前所未有的渺茫。翻譯：石海霞 校對：周雨晴
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