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Lexington
萊克星頓
Hugging the Saudi floggers
你好，沙特小獨裁
America should reconsider its cosy relationship with Saudi Arabia
美國應該重新審議它同沙特阿拉伯之間的舒適關系
ON THE way back from carving up the world at the Yalta conference in 1945, Franklin Roosevelt made an unexpected stop. On board the USS Quincy, moored in Egypt's Great Bitter Lake, the president held a long meeting with Ibn Saud, the first Saudi monarch and father of the 45 sons (nobody seems to have bothered to count the daughters) who make the kingdom's succession so operatic. Ibn Saud slaughtered a goat on the deck of the warship, sealing a pact that makes his kingdom America's oldest continuous ally in the region. It is also the most troubling one.
早在1945年瓜分世界的雅爾塔會議上，富蘭克林·羅斯福出乎意料地決定中途停歇一站。在停靠在埃及大苦水湖的美軍艦昆西號甲板上，總統(tǒng)同伊本沙特國王進行了一次長時間的會面，他是第一任沙特君主并養(yǎng)育有45個兒子（看來沒有人會費心去數(shù)女兒的數(shù)量），正是他們讓王國的傳承如此歌劇化。伊本沙特在軍艦甲班上宰了一只山羊，簽訂了協(xié)議使他的王國成為美國在這一地區(qū)最長久的盟友。他也是最麻煩的一位。
On January 9th Raif Badawi, a blogger, received the first of his 1,000 lashes for taking Thomas Paine's view of the “adulterous connection between church and state”. Mr Badawi has also been sentenced to a decade in prison. Three days later a woman accused of murder was dragged through the streets of Mecca and beheaded with a sword. Though America disapproves of this sort of thing, it does not let it upset relations. Government delegations to the kingdom are usually lots of men in military uniform and one official from the State Department, whose job is to say that it would be nice if women could drive.Scott Fitzgerald wrote that the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time is the sign of a first-rate intelligence. Something similar applies in foreign policy. Ford Fraker, a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, describes the alliance as “a long-term marriage founded on fundamental interests and principles”. Those interests have shifted a little over time. Now they could be summarised as oil, counter-terrorism and stability. Like diamond earrings on an anniversary, weapons and money have been exchanged throughout as tokens of esteem. Less than a year after telling an audience in Cairo that America “must never alter or forget our principles”, Barack Obama performed a full Fitzgerald, signing off on one of the largest arms deals with the kingdom yet, an order now being fulfilled by American manufacturers.
一月九號，博主萊夫巴達維收到了超過1000個關于批評他引用托馬斯佩恩的觀點“國家和宗教之間存在奸情”。巴達維也被判刑十年。三天后，一位被指控謀殺的女人被拖著穿過麥加的街道并被一刀斬首。盡管美國不同意此類事情，但她并不會讓這些影響雙邊關系。王國的政府代表團通常大部分來自軍方，一位官員來自行政部門，他的工作也就是提出如果女性能開車，這將是極好的。斯科特費茲杰拉德寫道，在腦海中同時持一對對立的觀點就是最負智慧的標志。前任駐沙特的大使福特弗雷克形容這種聯(lián)盟就像“建立在基本利益和原則上的長期婚姻”。那些利益已經(jīng)隨時間變化略微改變。現(xiàn)在它們可以被概括為石油，反恐和維穩(wěn)。像周年慶上的鉆石耳環(huán)那樣，武器和錢的互換被作為是尊重的象征。在開羅會議上廣告聽眾后不到一年，美國“一定不會改變或者忘卻我們的原則”，奧巴馬命令費茲杰拉德，簽署了和王國建交以來最大的武器供應合同之一，現(xiàn)在則由美國制造商們完成的任務。
Senator John McCain, just back from a trip to the kingdom, says that the country feels let down by America's reluctance to punish Bashar Assad. “They had planes on the runway ready to go,” he says. “They learned it was not going to happen from watching CNN.” The Saudis, he says, are worried about expanding Iranian influence in the region—more so than they are about Islamic State (IS). This disagreement, and the recent hospitalisation of the 90-year-old king, makes it a good time to consider how America should treat the kingdom in future.
剛從王國回國的參議員麥凱恩說，整個國家對美國不情愿處罰巴沙爾的做法感到失望。“他們飛機在跑道上隨時準備起飛，”他說道。“他們知道這不會從CNN新聞中看到。”他說，沙特人都擔心伊朗在該地區(qū)擴大影響——超過了伊斯蘭國的影響。這項分歧以及最近九十歲高齡的國王住院，讓現(xiàn)在成為了絕佳時間來重新考慮在未來美國如何對待王國。
The high point of the relationship came during the presidency of Ronald Reagan, says Bilal Saab of the Atlantic Council, a think-tank. Memories of two Arab oil embargoes at a time of flat domestic oil production, as well as shared hostility to the Soviet Union, drew the countries close. There followed a blip after 9/11, when 15 of the 19 hijackers turned out to be Saudis. Al-Qaeda attacks in Saudi Arabia between 2003 and 2005 brought the countries closer together again. Though they may dent America's idea of itself as a champion of liberty, government policy is that good relations are worth it. That may have been true in the Gipper's day, but the argument is getting harder to make.
一位來自亞特蘭大議會的智囊比拉薩博說，雙邊關系最緊密的時期是里根總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)。在國內(nèi)室友生產(chǎn)不景氣的時期兩次阿拉伯石油禁運的記憶以及共同敵對蘇維埃聯(lián)邦讓兩國關系密切起來。在9·11之后關系出現(xiàn)了裂痕，當時19名劫機者中15名被證實為沙特人。基地組織在03年至05年之間對沙特阿拉伯的攻擊讓兩國關系又一次更加緊密。盡管他們可能削弱美國關于自詡為自由之邦的觀點，政府決策則認為兩國間友好關系更有價值。這可能在G日變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實，但是爭論讓決定更難塵埃落定。
Oil is one reason. America may be the world's biggest producer, but because consumption still exceeds what it pumps it must still shop on the world market. This does not make it dependent on Saudi Arabia, though. Oil is fungible: lousy relations with Russia, the second-biggest producer, do not threaten America's economy. As the owner of the biggest reserves, which are also very cheap to extract, Saudi Arabia is the crucial swing producer. But America's shale technology has put a ceiling on the oil price, and its economy is less oil-intensive than three decades ago.
石油是一方面原因。美國可能是世界上最大的生產(chǎn)商，但是因為消費仍超過了產(chǎn)出，所以它還得在世界市場上采購。即使是這樣，它也不會完全依賴沙特阿拉伯。石油是可替代的：和世界上第二大石油生產(chǎn)商俄羅斯之間惡劣的關系，并沒有威脅到美國經(jīng)濟。最為世界上最大的油氣儲備國，提煉成本也是非常廉價，沙特阿拉伯是最具決定性的生產(chǎn)調(diào)節(jié)者。但是美國的頁巖技術已經(jīng)讓油價有了上限，而且它的經(jīng)濟不再像30年前那般以石油為中心。
Nor is the argument for keeping close for intelligence-sharing purposes as straightforward as it seems. Salafi Muslim terrorists, who draw much of their inspiration from Saudi imams, are a big threat to America. The pact between the House of Saud and the country's clerics has long involved bankrolling Salafi imams to preach loyalty to the king; the money that sloshes through Salafi mosques undermines more moderate strains of Islam all around the world. The black-robed fighters of IS rely on Saudi jurisprudence and books to impose their preferred version of Islamic law. Their fondness for public beheadings is one result of this. Intelligence co-operation may be valuable, but its main task is tracking threats that have been subsidised by the Saudis themselves.
也不是為了共享情報目的而保持友好這一論斷看起來那樣簡潔明了。薩拉菲派恐怖分子從沙特的伊瑪目們（清真寺內(nèi)率領穆斯林做禮拜的人）那兒獲取靈感，成為了美國最大的威脅。沙特議院和國家牧師之間的紐帶就是長期資助薩拉菲派伊瑪目宣講對國王的忠誠；流通到薩拉菲清真寺的錢暗中破壞了世界上伊斯蘭教徒中溫和的民族。伊斯蘭國的黑袍士兵們依賴沙特的法律體系和書籍來推行他們青睞的伊斯蘭法律版本。他們對公共場合斬首的喜好就是這樣的結果。情報合作可能價值千金，但是它的主要任務是追蹤已經(jīng)被沙特人他們自己資助的那些威脅。
That leaves the argument that the House of Saud must be supported because it is stable. The alternative could be much worse: the thought of something like IS controlling the world's largest oil reserves is terrifying. Also, if America were to pull back from the Gulf, it is a fair bet that China would sooner or later replace it.
爭議就產(chǎn)生了，因為沙特議院的穩(wěn)定性，它就必須被支持。替代選項可能更糟：有想法是讓類似伊斯蘭國這樣的力量控制世界上最大的石油儲備地區(qū)，這讓人恐懼。同樣，如果美國從海灣地區(qū)撤走，很合理的猜想就是中國遲早將取代美國的位置。
Some say that there is no alternative to the House of Saud. “This is a society that has the government they want,” says Ambassador Fraker. “They are comfortable with what they have.” If the regime is as secure as it seems, however, why should America abandon its basic values in the name of keeping it in place?
一些人說對于沙特議院來說沒有選擇了。弗雷克大使說“這是一個人民認為有政府的社會，他們對他們擁有的很舒適。”然而如果政權和它看起來那樣穩(wěn)定，為什么美國要在保持它地位的名義下舍棄它的基本價值觀呢？
Free to scream
隨意尖叫
Strip these things away and what's left is the arms sales. These at least have the virtue of being nakedly self-interested. Selling weapons is a big part of American diplomacy in the kingdom. A recent ambassador worked for Raytheon, the world's biggest producer of guided missiles, before he was appointed. It is also popular in Congress: the defence business is adept at scattering production around as many districts as possible.
扒走這些事情看在武器銷售里面還剩什么。這些至少還具有赤裸裸的個人利益在里面。在美國對王國的外交策略中販賣軍火占有很大一部分比例。最近的一位大使在任命之前曾為世界上最大的精確制導生產(chǎn)商雷聲公司工作過。它在國會也很受歡迎：防御型商業(yè)將產(chǎn)業(yè)散布在盡可能多的地區(qū)。
Yet this has a cost. Being a superpower means having relations with lots of unsavoury regimes, yet America need not be so eager to put principle aside when dealing with its old ally. “Failure to speak to the broader aspirations of ordinary people will only feed the suspicion that has festered for years that the United States pursues our interests at their expense,” as Mr Obama once put it. Between lashes, Mr Badawi no doubt agrees.
然而這也有代價。成為超級大國意味著和很多讓人討厭的政權建立聯(lián)系，美國在和老牌盟友交往時不需要如此渴望地將自身的原則拋擲一旁。奧巴馬曾說“無法為普通民眾說出更廣闊的心聲只會滋生已經(jīng)存在多年的膿瘡般的質疑聲，說美國實在別人的頭上追逐自身的利益。”在這些批評中，巴達維無疑是同意這種說法的。譯者:彭威
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