評論
打印
Indonesia's anti-poverty plans
印尼反貧困計劃
Full of promise
承諾滿滿
Cutting fuel subsidies makes space for an ambitious income top-up scheme
削減燃油補貼為雄心勃勃的收入提升計劃鋪路搭橋
BARACK OBAMA signed his health-care programme into law 427 days after taking office. Joko Widodo, Indonesia's president, took just two weeks to begin honouring his health-care and education promises. On November 3rd his government began issuing cards that will give poor Indonesians access to three programmes—two expanding publicly funded health care and education, and one giving cash handouts of 200,000 rupiah (15.75) per month. The income top-up scheme is planned eventually to cover 86.4m people in 15.5m households—a third of Indonesia's population. That would make it the largest such programme in the world.
貝拉克·奧巴馬在就任總統427天后才簽署了他的醫保法案。印尼總統佐科·維多多只準備了兩周，即開始兌現他在醫療和教育方面的承諾。11月3日，印尼政府面向本國貧困人口， 開始推行三個項目——其中兩個增加了對于醫療和教育的政府投入，另一個則向適格人群發放每月20萬盧比（15.75美元）的現金救濟。這項收入提升計劃預計將覆蓋一千五百五十萬個家庭中的八千六百四十萬人——占印尼總人數的三分之一。這一項目的規模在全球同類中雄踞絕頂。
Poor Indonesians were already eligible for various social programmes, including some scholarships and health care. But Jokowi, as he is known, has something his predecessors lacked: money. Like many countries, Indonesia has long wasted vast sums on subsidising fuel (see chart). But on January 1st Jokowi ended petrol subsidies, which will, according to the finance minister, save the government 200 trillion rupiah per year.
印尼貧困人口對此類項目（包括獎學金和醫療服務）的需求早已存在。但正如世人所知，佐科維（民眾對佐科·維多多的愛稱）手握大筆資金，而這是他的前任所缺乏的。和許多國家一樣，印尼長期以來花費重金以補貼油價。但佐科維自1月1日始，終止了燃油補貼。據印尼財政部長所言，這將為政府每年節約二千億盧比。
The income top-up is being described as cushioning the impact on consumers. But petrol subsidies benefited rich Indonesians most, since few poor ones own cars. The reality is that Jokowi seized the moment: the recent fall in the price of oil means Indonesia's newly unsubsidised petrol costs less than subsidised petrol did last month.
據說收入提升計劃將盡量減少對消費者的影響。但無可否認的是，較富裕的人群從燃油補貼中受益最多，因為窮人很少買得起車。并且佐科維抓住了時機：最近油價下跌意味著，即使取消補貼，油價也低于上個月。
The finance minister's estimate of how much cutting fuel subsidies will save may be optimistic. And not all of the money freed up will go on social spending: more infrastructure investment is also expected. Nor will all those eligible be enrolled straight away. The plan is for 4.5m cards to be issued this year.
財政部長的預測可能過于樂觀。另外，并非所有省下來的錢都將用于社會支出：還有一部分用于基礎設施建設。也不是所有的貧困人口將同時獲益。按計劃，今年只發放四百五十萬張保障卡。
And details of how the programmes will work are as yet unclear. The plan is for the income top-ups to be collected using a mobile-phone SIM card at a bank branch or post office. Currently, recipients turn up at government offices and walk out with cash, which makes them vulnerable to crime and the system open to fraud and corruption.
項目運作細節仍有待商榷。政府原本計劃：受助人群在銀行網點或郵局使用移動電話SIM卡與項目對接。但現在的情形是：受助人群前往政府機構領取現金。這樣罪犯難免盯上這群人，并且此等機制也難免催生欺詐和腐敗。
But banks and post offices are thin on the ground in remote regions. And supplying social services in an archipelagic country as vast and sprawling as Indonesia is also difficult. Promises of free health care mean little when clinics lack staff, equipment and medicine.
困難在于，銀行和郵局在邊遠地區寥寥無幾。印尼是一個廣闊的島國，這樣的地理條件也增加了困難。更糟的是，印尼的診所總的來說缺乏人手，設備和藥品；在這樣的條件下，就算削減民眾的醫療支出，意義也非常有限。
But as mayor of Solo, a city of 500,000 in Central Java, and then governor of the capital, Jakarta, Jokowi gained a reputation for competence and keeping his promises. Improving social services was one of his main campaign pledges.
但是佐科維——這個曾經的索羅市（爪哇中部一座擁有50萬人口的城市）市長，后來的首者雅加達執政官，現在的總統—早已聲名卓著：受人千金，不如得佐科一諾。提升社會服務正是他在競選中提出的主要目標。
In the long run, making Indonesians healthier and better educated will help them become more productive and richer. But the country's poverty line is 300,000 rupiah per person per month. Cash transfers of two-thirds that amount will lift millions above it.
長期來看，加強醫療和教育投入將提高印尼的生產率，也將使民眾受惠。該國的貧困線是每人每月30萬盧比。如此算來，每人每月補貼20萬盧比，將使數百萬人脫貧。譯者：韋永睿 校對：程蒙
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