評論
打印
Stamp duty
印花稅
Unexpected bills
不招人喜歡的稅收
Why stamp-duty tax cuts may hurt homebuyers
削減印花稅如何讓房屋購買方受損
“TODAY I'm cutting stamp duty for millions of homebuyers,” crowed George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, on December 3rd when announcing reforms to stamp duty, a tax on buying property. Yet hidden in the forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is an assumption that implies most homebuyers will be made worse off by the tax cut. For every one percentage-point reduction in the tax, the OBR assumes that house prices will rise by 1.4%, leaving buyers with a bigger overall bill.
“今天我將為百萬購房者削減房產印花稅，”12月3號，喬治·奧斯在宣布房產印花稅（一項針對購房征收的稅收）改革的時候高興的合不攏嘴。但是，預算責任局（OBR）的預測中卻隱藏著這樣一個假設，大多數購房者會因為減稅而遭受損失。OBR預測印花稅每下降一個百分點就意味著房價會上漲1.4%，對于消費者來說總支出提高。
At first sight, this seems odd. Economics suggests that the sensitivity of buyers and sellers to changes in the price—“price elasticity”, in the jargon—influences who ends up paying most for “transaction taxes” like stamp duty. Housing supply is not very responsive to price: it is hard to build homes quickly to take advantage of a price spike. That means, according to economic reasoning, that, if stamp duty is cut, you would expect prices to rise and sellers to benefit more than buyers.
乍一看，這個觀點似乎沒什么道理。經濟學家認為買方和賣方對于價格變動的靈敏度，即經濟學術語中的“價格彈性”，會影響誰最后為“交易稅”比如印花稅買單。房屋供給對價格的變化并不那么敏感：很難在價格峰值期內投機大量建造房屋。也就是說，根據經濟學的推論，如果削減房產印花稅，房價會按人們估計的上漲，賣方比買方獲益更多。
What economists would not expect, though, is that buyers would end up absolutely worse off. So why are buyers left with a bigger overall bill? Mortgages are key to solving the mystery. Most buyers are what economists call “credit-constrained”. What they can splash out on a new place is limited by what they can borrow. And the amount they can borrow depends in part on how much cash they can put down as a deposit.
但經濟學家不會估計購買者利益最后一定會受損。那么為什么印花稅的削減會導致買方最后支出的總價更多？房屋貸款是揭開謎底的關鍵。大多數購房者就是經濟學家所稱的“信貸受限者”。他們能在購買房屋上揮霍的多少受限于他們能夠借到多少。他們能夠借到的數額又在某種程度上取決于他們能夠拿出多少現金做抵押金。
Stamp duty—a bill which must be paid immediately on buying property—drains that cash. When it is cut, buyers can put down higher deposits and borrow more. As a result, demand rises, pushing up the price enough to more than offset the benefit of the tax cut.
房產印花稅——必須在購房時馬上支付的一項稅收——榨干了他們可以作為抵押的現金。在印花稅得到削減的同時。這部分人可以拿出更多的抵押金，借到更多的錢。這導致需求上漲，推動房價上漲，直到足以抵消減少印花稅所帶來的優惠。
If the OBR is right, buyers of a property that cost ￡300,000 before the change in stamp duty now face ￡4,000 less tax but a price ￡5,600 higher. Buyers who were not previously in the market but can now afford a deposit will benefit, but this group is small. The main winners are homeowners, who benefit from higher house prices.
如果OBR的預測是對的，那么在印花稅改革前一套價值30萬英鎊的房屋，如今減少了4000英鎊的稅收但價格卻提高了5萬6千英鎊。之前那些沒有購房但現在可以拿出抵押金的人群將會受益，但是這一群體的數量很少。大部分的受益者還是房屋持有者，他們可以從高房價中賺取差價。
There is a parallel with the government's flagship intervention in the housing market: Help to Buy. That scheme aims to assist buyers who cannot afford deposits by providing them with government loans. But its biggest effect is to boost demand and hence prices. Homeowners keep winning from government policy.
有一項政策與政府房地產市場的主要干預并駕齊驅：幫助購買。該計劃旨在通過提供政府貸款來幫助那些無力支付抵押金的人們。但是它最大的作用是刺激需求，然后抬升價格。房屋所有者是政府政策中永遠的贏家。譯者：胡雅琳 校對：王穎
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