評論
打印
Immigration and the economy
移民與經濟
How migrants help
移民如何助力
And how Obama's order doesn't
奧巴馬的政策為何不管用
IMMIGRATION is the quintessential supply-side policy. It expands the labour force, encourages investment and provides taxpayers to supportAmerica's growing ranks of the grey-haired. Sadly, Barack Obama's immigration order will have few such benefits, because it is aimed largely at illegal immigrants who arrived years ago while doing precious little to increase the flow of newcomers.
移民政策事關國家供給。它能擴充勞動力，鼓勵投資，提供納稅人去贍養美國日益增多的老齡人口。但遺憾的是，巴拉克·奧巴馬的移民很難帶來這些好處。因為這些條例僅主要針對多年前偷渡到美國的非法移民們，但對于增強新移民的流動性，幫助甚少。
The reform that passed the Senate last year (but was never taken up by the House of Representatives), besides legalising millions of illegal immigrants, would have created new entry routes for foreign workers, especially those with skills, experience and education. The Congressional Budget Office reckoned it would boost the population in a decade's time by10m, the number of workers by6m, and the level of GDP by 3.3%.
參議院去年一致通過了移民改革政策（但卻從沒有征得眾議院的同意）。除了讓數百萬非法移民合法化，將會為外籍工人尤其是那些有技能、經驗以及受過高等教育的人，創造新的移民途徑。國會預算辦公室估算，未來十年內，新的政策將會促使總人口達到10億規模，勞動力人口達到6億，國內生產總值增速達3.3%
By contrast, Mr Obama's Council of Economic Advisers reckons his order will boost GDP in the next decade by between 0.4% and 0.9%, mostly because of provisions unrelated to illegal immigration. These give foreign entrepreneurs more ways to get into America, allow the spouses of skilled visa-holders to work, and let foreign-born science graduates spend more time in America doing their training.
相反的，經濟顧問委員會估算，未來十年內，主要因為非法移民的無關規定，奧巴馬的新條例僅會促使美國國內生產總值增長0.4%-0.9%。這給了外資企業更多進入美國市場的機會，并且允許持有技術簽證的配偶們在美國工作，讓外籍理工科畢業生在美國停留更長時間完成科研、訓練。
In theory, the economy should benefit as illegal immigrants, no longer fearing they will be deported, switch to jobs better suited to their skills. But that advantage is likely to be small: a study by Silvia Helena Barcellos, now at the University of Southern California, found that Mexican high-school dropouts who qualified for the 1986 amnesty earned only 2-3% more than those who did not qualify, and that there was little difference in where they worked or the types of jobs they had, though their better-educated counterparts got better jobs.
理論上，非法移民處境的改善能夠國家經濟收益，這些非法移民們可以切換到能發揮他們技能的工作崗位上，并且不再害怕被驅逐出境。但是這個益處看上去微不足道。南加州大學西爾維亞·海倫娜·巴塞羅斯通過研究發現，1986年大赦的那些墨西哥高中輟學者的收入僅僅只比那些沒有得到特赦資格的人多2-3%，雖然受過良好教育的同行有更好的工作，但是他們的工作種類卻沒有太大的差別。
Immigration is already shrinking as a contributor to American growth. Legal immigration has been around1ma year for the past decade, and is edging down as a share of the population (see chart). Illegal immigration more or less came to a halt in 2007. Since then, the number of illegal immigrants freshly arrived in the country has been roughly balanced, or exceeded, by the number who have left, died or been deported. The longer Congress goes without legislating a change, the costlier it will be for the economy.
移民對美國經濟增長的貢獻力度正在減弱，在過去的十年里，合法移民的數量保持在每年100萬左右，在總人口總數中所占的比例不斷降低。而非法移民從2007年開始就被禁止了。自從那以后，那些剛來到美國非法移民的數量已經大致平衡或略微超過已經離開,死亡或被驅逐出境的非法移民人數。國會不對立法做出改變的時間越越長，國家為此所付出的經濟成本就越高。譯者: 王巍
譯文屬譯生譯世
