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經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人:蘇格蘭國(guó)民黨的新領(lǐng)袖 蘇格蘭女王

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The SNP's new leader

蘇格蘭國(guó)民黨的新領(lǐng)袖
Queen of Scots
蘇格蘭女王
Alex Salmond's unflashy successor could yet outshine him
亞歷克斯·薩蒙德的接班人樸實(shí)無(wú)華,卻更勝一籌
ALEX SALMOND, Scotland's most famous secessionist, is prone to displays of grandeur. During the campaign for independence over the summer the first minister took to comparing himself to Robert the Bruce, the Scots' leader in their 14th-century wars against the English. However, when the secessionists lost the referendum in September he promptly announced his resignation.
蘇格蘭最著名的分裂主義者亞歷克斯·薩蒙德很容易表現(xiàn)出顯赫之感。在今年夏季的蘇獨(dú)運(yùn)動(dòng)中,這位首席部長(zhǎng)將自己比作了羅伯特·布魯斯,曾在十四世紀(jì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)對(duì)抗英格蘭人的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)蘇格蘭國(guó)王。然而,分裂主義者們于9月在公投中失利后,他很快就宣告了自己的辭職。

His successor as first minister and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) is humbler in style. Nicola Sturgeon's speech at her party's conference in Perth on November 15th lacked the bombast of MrSalmond's valedictory address the day before. Ms Sturgeon grew up in modest circumstances and owes her smooth rise through the political ranks to judicious alliance building (specifically, a decade-long collaboration with MrSalmond).

他的繼任者,作為首屆首席部長(zhǎng)和蘇格蘭國(guó)民黨(SNP)的領(lǐng)袖,相比而言行事謙遜。11月15號(hào),SNP于帕斯召開會(huì)議,尼古拉·斯特金在會(huì)上的發(fā)言并沒(méi)有像前一天薩爾蒙德的離職演講那樣天花亂墜。斯特金出身平凡,通過(guò)明智的聯(lián)盟建設(shè)而在政治頭銜上步步升并贏得了今天的政治地位(明確地說(shuō),是與薩爾蒙德長(zhǎng)達(dá)十年的合作)。
MrSalmond bequeaths a strikingly upbeat party. Although the secessionists lost September's referendum by 45% to 55%, the SNP has, since then, welcomed pro-independence activists keen to continue the struggle. In under three months its membership has grown from 25,000 to over 85,000 (almost one in 50 Scottish adults is now in the party). One poll of voting intentions by Survation for the Daily Record on November 18th put it on 46% there, largely at the expense of the Labour Party. If repeated in next May's general election, that would give the SNP 52 of Scotland's 59 seats in the House of Commons.
薩爾蒙德留下的是一個(gè)欣欣向榮的政黨。盡管分裂主義者在九月的公投中以45%比55%的票數(shù)落敗了,但SNP自那以后為仍熱心于繼續(xù)抗?fàn)幍闹С知?dú)立者敞開著大門。在三個(gè)月內(nèi),它的成員就從25,000人上升到了85,000人(約每50個(gè)蘇格蘭成年人中就有一人為該黨成員)。11月18號(hào),民調(diào)機(jī)構(gòu)Survation為每日紀(jì)事報(bào)所做的輿論調(diào)查顯示SNP現(xiàn)有46%的支持率,大部分從工黨轉(zhuǎn)投而來(lái)。如果明年五月大選情景再現(xiàn),這將使SNP獲得蘇格蘭下議院59個(gè)席位中的52個(gè)。
Ms Sturgeon, who was sworn in as first minister on November 20th, wants to convert this fleeting surge into lasting power. Her conference speech revealed glimpses of a three-step plan. The first task is to squash her party's social democratic rival, the Labour Party, by shifting to the left. Ms Sturgeon has already moved into Labour territory by pledging to extend free child care, pay government cleaners more and increase spending on health care.
斯特金于11月20號(hào)宣誓成為首席部長(zhǎng),她希望將這短期的激增轉(zhuǎn)化為持久的戰(zhàn)斗力。她的會(huì)議演講透露了三步計(jì)劃。第一個(gè)任務(wù)是通過(guò)轉(zhuǎn)向左翼,干掉SNP的社會(huì)民主黨對(duì)手工黨。斯特金已通過(guò)承諾擴(kuò)大兒童福利范圍、提高政府清潔工薪資和增加醫(yī)療支出成功打入工黨領(lǐng)域。
Thus she plans to win enough seats in next year's Westminster election to hold the balance of power in the event of a hung parliament.In her speech in Perth, Ms Sturgeon explained the second pillar of her plan: that she would never support a Conservative-led government. The condition for a deal with Labour, she added, would be the removal of Britain's nuclear deterrent from Scottish waters and the transfer of extensive new powers from London to Edinburgh.
因此她計(jì)劃在明年的議會(huì)選舉中贏得足夠多的席位,因?yàn)槿f(wàn)一出現(xiàn)懸浮議會(huì),可以掌控權(quán)力平衡體系。斯特金在帕斯的演講中解釋了計(jì)劃的第二個(gè)支柱:她絕不會(huì)支持由保守黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的政府。她補(bǔ)充說(shuō),與工黨合作的條件是將英國(guó)的核威懾力量從蘇格蘭水域移除,并要將廣泛的新權(quán)力由倫敦轉(zhuǎn)向愛(ài)丁堡。
The final part of Ms Sturgeon's plan is to bring about a new referendum on independence. Having ruled out any further vote for a generationafter September's plebiscite, in her conference speech she suggested that events—and in particular the risk of England pulling Britain out of the EU—could make it essential. At the very least, that gambit increases her bargaining power in ongoing discussions about further devolution to Scotland.
斯圖爾金計(jì)劃的最后一步是進(jìn)行新一輪的獨(dú)立公投。在九月的公投后,再進(jìn)行更新?lián)Q代的投票已無(wú)望,她表示各類事態(tài)—尤其是英格蘭將英國(guó)從歐盟中擠出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)—可能使得新一輪獨(dú)立公投十分有必要。起碼,在進(jìn)一步將權(quán)力下放到蘇格蘭的討論中,這張牌給了她討價(jià)還價(jià)的籌碼。
The signs suggest that the first minister could find herself in a position of remarkable power. Next year's general election will probably produce a hung parliament. If Labour is the largest party, it may rely on the SNP. If the Tories lead, the risk of Britain's exit from the EU could trigger a new independence referendum. In either case, the modest Ms Sturgeon might just achieve more in power than the flashy MrSalmond ever did.
這些跡象表明,這位首席大臣能察覺(jué)自己處在一個(gè)權(quán)高位重的位置。明年的大選也許會(huì)產(chǎn)生一個(gè)懸浮議會(huì)。如果工黨是最大黨,它也許會(huì)依靠SNP。如果托利黨領(lǐng)先,英國(guó)退出歐盟帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也許會(huì)觸發(fā)新一輪獨(dú)立公投。不論是哪種情況,謙遜的斯圖爾金都可能比光鮮亮麗的薩爾蒙德獲得更多權(quán)力。譯者:王穎 校對(duì):徐珍
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