評論
打印
Keystone XL
基石管道
Back in the pipeline
折戟沉沙
Congress has a fruitless fight over a modest proposal
國會唇槍舌戰，基石芻議破產
ACCORDING to Joe Manchin, a Democratic senator from West Virginia, one advantage of the Keystone XL pipeline is that “wars could be prevented”. Barbara Boxer of California, also a Democrat, says that the pipeline would bring Shanghai-like smog to America—her point illustrated with a huge picture of Chinese people in facemasks.
在基石管道工程這個問題上，來自西弗吉尼亞的民主黨議員瓊曼欽表示此提議破產的好處之一就是可避免戰火彌漫，加利福尼亞民主黨人芭芭拉·柏克瑟說，這一關管道的建設無異于將上海的霧霾“輸往”美國，她還以一幅中國人面戴面罩的大圖加以解釋說明。
So goes the hyperbole which surrounds the proposed pipeline, which is intended to link Canadian oilfields and tar sands with American refineries. On November 18th the Senate narrowly failed (59 votes to 41, 60 being required) to pass a bill that would have authorised its construction. The tight vote, with 14 Democrats joining all the Republicans to try to push it through, gave a hint of what may happen when the Republicans take over the Senate in January.
此提議一瓦解，縈繞其周圍的光環也隨之冰消雪融，該管道本意在于將加拿大石油與油砂輸送到美國進行提煉，但11月18日在參議院，授權管道建設的提案以微弱劣勢破產（59票比41票，60票同意則通過），而這之前為推動提案通過，14名民主黨人加入了共和黨陣地，這也成為1月共和黨占領國會后的縮影。
The Obama administration is not over-keen on the pipeline. The vote was mostly the work of Mary Landrieu, a centrist Democrat from Louisiana. She is fighting a run-off election for her seat against Bill Cassidy, a Republican congressman who sponsored the passage of the same legislation through the House. Oil is a big industry in Louisiana, and the president is deeply unpopular there: Ms Landrieu hoped the vote on her bill would help to prove her independence and “clout”. Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, apparently allowed the vote to bolster her campaign.
奧巴馬政府在管道問題上的熱情并不高漲，拉票主要歸功于路易斯安那民主黨中間派瑪麗蘭德里，她將在決勝選舉中對戰共和黨議員比爾卡西迪，眾議院投票中他推動了提議的通過，石油是路易斯安那的支柱產業，而奧巴馬在此地的人氣并不旺，蘭德里希望她議案的票數將展現她的獨當一面，影響不凡，很明顯參議院多數黨領袖亨利瑞德順水推舟，讓選舉為她加了把力。
Keystone XL makes environmentalists livid: many of them protested, inflating an enormous black plastic pipeline on Ms Landrieu's lawn in Washington. Oil extracted from Canada's tar sands produces about 17% more carbon dioxide than conventionally-pumped supplies do—largely thanks to the energy needed to get it out of the ground. The process uproots forests and leaves toxic lakes behind. A pipeline carrying Canadian oil to Gulf coast refineries would lower the cost of getting such oil to market, so it might encourage energy firms to extract more.
基石工程讓這些環保人士言論風生，他們中的很多人都反對鋪設一條巨型黑色的塑料輸油管道，穿過蘭德里在華盛頓的草地，從加拿大油砂中提煉石油排放的二氧化碳比傳統輸油要多17%，這在很大程度上是因為油砂挖取需要能量，但鋪設管道將加拿大的石油運送到墨西哥灣海岸進行提純將降低石油進入市場的費用，各種能源公司開采石油也會更加奮發有力。
Supporters point to the jobs that the scheme will create: some 42,000, according to estimates by the State Department (Ms Landrieu rounded this figure up to “millions” in the Senate debate). Some also suggest the pipeline will reduce America's dependence on oil from the Middle East and lower petrol prices for Americans in the states where the oil will be refined. A few, such as Mr Cassidy, deny that global warming is a problem at all.
支持者認為這項工程將帶來大量就業機會，國務院估計它將產生42000個就業崗位（在參議院辯論中，蘭德里說這項工程將回來上百萬工作崗位），有些人說這條管道將減輕美國對中東石油的依存，一些提純石油的州的油價負擔將減輕，但也有一部分人比如說凱斯迪認為全球變暖問題根本是無中生有。
Yet the curious reality is that few experts think the pipeline is all that important, either way. Canadian oil is already getting to market, points out Charles Ebinger of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank—just mostly by barge and train. A new pipeline would ease the strain on Canada's railways and increase the profitability of extracting the oil. But compared with swings in global oil prices, the effect will be small. Nor will many jobs be created. Most of those 42,000 are temporary posts; just 35 full-time permanent employees will be needed to run the pipeline.
但令人好奇的事實是幾個專家認為無論從哪方面考慮這條管道都沒有那么重要，智庫布魯金斯學院的查爾斯艾冰格認為，加拿大石油大多已經以船舶和鐵道運輸已經與市場接軌，新管道將緩解加拿大鐵道運輸的壓力，增加石油開采收益，但與國際油價的波云詭譎將比，這無疑收效甚微，創造的就業崗位也不會有多少，42000個崗位中，大多是臨時性的，而只有35個需要被雇來長期負責管道維護。
Oddly, the project may not matter much in Louisiana. If completed, Keystone XL will deliver oil to Texas, not its neighbour. Some voters do still care, reckons Pearson Cross of the University of Louisiana, but they are unlikely to switch allegiance as a result of an ineffective vote in Congress. “The only way this could change anything around ultimately is if this got to Obama's desk and he signed it,” says Mr Cross. Even then, he reckons, the effect would be slight
另外，這個項目對路易斯安那也沒多大影響，即使完工，即使管道不過只會向德克薩斯州輸油，與其鄰州沒多大關系，但路易斯安那大學的博森說，有些人確實十分關注，但這項提案已經在國會碰壁，他們也無力回天，唯一的挽救可能是直接投遞到總統辦公桌前得到通過，但這種影響估計也是微弱的。
Mr Obama may well end up signing a bill authorising the project. Just not yet. Allowing the pipeline to be built now would not just upset the president's few remaining fans, especially when he is trying to cheer them up with immigration reform (see Lexington); it would also throw away a bargaining chip that could be useful in the future. When Republicans take control of the Senate, Mr Obama will want as many of those available as possible.
奧巴馬也可能會授權批準這項法案，只是還不是時候，允許法案通過只會讓總統剩余的寥寥幾個追隨者忐忑不安，而現在他還在嘗試用移民法案鼓舞士氣，基石法案變更顯的不合時宜，這會使他失去未來可能大有用處的談判籌碼，當共和黨人控制國會，這種籌碼對他來說更是多多益善。譯者：張孟夏
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