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Cheaper oil
油價下跌
Winners and losers
賺了還是賠了？
America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices; its most strident critics don't
美國及其盟友將從油價下跌中獲益；最為毒舌的批評者們卻不能如此
IN EARLY October the IMF looked at what might happen to the world economy if conflict in Iraq caused an oil-price shock. Fighters from Islamic State (IS) were pushing into the country's north and the fund worried about a sharp price rise, of 20% in a year. Global GDP would fall by 0.5-1.5%, it concluded. Equity prices in rich countries would decline by 3-7%, and inflation would be at least half a point higher.
十月初，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預估了一旦伊拉克沖突導致油價震蕩會帶來怎樣的后果。 伊斯蘭國（IS）的武裝分子在向該國北部進軍時，IMF擔心今年油價可能會猛增約20%。它還估計今年全球GDP增速可能會下滑0.5%至1.5%。富裕國家的股價跌幅可能會達到3%至7%，而通脹率可能至少會上浮0.5個百分點。
IS is still advancing.Russia, the world's third-biggest producer, is embroiled inUkraine.Iraq,Syria,Nigeria and Libya, oil producers all, are in turmoil. But the price of Brent crude fell over 25% from 115 abarrel in mid-June to under 85 inmid-October, before recovering a little. Such a shift has global consequences. Who are the winners and losers?
IS仍在繼續進軍。世界上第三大出口國俄羅斯也身陷烏克蘭國內的沖突中。伊拉克、敘利亞、尼日利亞和利比亞這些石油生產國都處在動蕩中。但是北海布倫特原油的價格卻從七月中旬的每桶115美元跌至十月中旬的不足85美元，跌幅超過25%，隨后又出現小幅回升。這樣的價格波動給全球都帶來了影響。那么誰是贏家誰是輸家呢？
The first winner is the world economy itself. A 10% change in the oil price is associated with around a 0.2% change in global GDP, says Tom Helbling of the IMF. A price fall normally boosts GDP by shifting resources from producers to consumers, who are more likely to spend their gains than wealthy sheikhdoms. If increased supply is the driving force, the effect is likely to be bigger—as in America, where shale gas drove prices down relative to Europe and, says the IMF, boosted manufactured exports by 6% compared with the rest of the world. But if it reflects weak demand, consumers may save the windfall.
第一個贏家當屬全球經濟本身。IMF的湯姆·赫爾布林表示，油價波動10%，就會帶來全球GDP約0.2%的浮動。正常情況下，油價下跌會助推GDP的增長，因為會將石油從生產國那里轉移給消費國，而后者比那些富裕的酋長國支出收益的可能性更大。如果石油供應增加成為驅動力，那么它的影響會更大—因為美國的頁巖氣推動了石油價格下跌，而IMF表示，與之有關的歐洲推進了制造品出口，漲幅較世界其他地區而言，達到了6%。但是，如果油價下跌反映出需求趨弱，那么消費國可能會大獲橫財。
Today's falling prices are caused by shifts in both supply and demand. The world's slowing economy, and stalled recoveries in Europe and Japan, are reining back the demand for oil. But there has been a big supply shock, too. Thanks largely to America, oil production since early 2013 has been running at 1m-2mbarrels per day (b/d) higher than the year before. Other influences are acting as a brake on the world economy. But a price cut of 25% for oil, if maintained, should mean that global GDP will be roughly 0.5% higher than it would be otherwise.
石油供需的變化共同導致了今天的油價下跌。世界經濟增速緩慢，歐洲和日本的經濟恢復近乎停滯，這些都抑制了對石油的需求。但是，石油供給也遭受了沖擊。美國自2013年初起其石油的日產量就比去年增加了一兩百萬桶，這可是大功臣。還有其他的一些影響成為世界經濟增長的后腿。但是如果能維持油價25%的跌幅，這就意味著全球GDP增速會提高約0.5%。
Some countries stand to gain a lot more than that average, and others, to lose out. The world produces just over 90mb/d of oil. At 115 abarrel, that is worth roughly 3.8 trillion a year; at 85, just 2.8 trillion. Any country or group that consumes more than it produces gains from the 1 trillion transfer—importers, most of all.
一些國家的收益肯定會比其他國家多，但也有一些國家會損失不少。全球每天的石油產量僅為900萬桶，按每桶115美元算，其每年的產量大約值3.8萬億美元。如果每桶為85美元，其價值僅為2.8萬億美元。如果任何一個國家或集團的石油產量低于消費量，那么它便能從這一萬億美元獲益——大多數是石油進口國。
China is the world's second-largest net importer of oil. Based on 2013 figures, every 1 drop in the oil price saves it an annual 2.1 billion. The recent fall, if sustained, lowers its import bill by 60 billion, or 3%. Most of its exports are manufactured goods whose prices have not fallen. Unless weak demand changes that, its foreign currency will go further, and living standards should rise.
中國是世界上第二大石油進口國。根據2013年的數據來看，油價每下跌1美元，每年便能為其節約21億美元。如果最近的油價下跌情況能夠保持住，將會為其節約600億美元的石油進口費用（約3%）。中國的出口大多為工業制成品，其價格已經在走低。如果疲弱的需求會改變這種局面，該國的外匯便會增加，人民生活水平也會相應提高。翻譯：江虹蕾 校對：董思琪
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