評論
打印
Cheaper oil
降低的油價
Both symptom and balm
癥狀和療法
The oil price is tumbling. Is that good or bad news for the world economy?
油價下跌對全球經濟是喜是憂？
AFTER declining gradually for three months, oil prices suddenly tumbled almost 4 on October 14th alone. It was the largest single-day fall in more than a year and brought the price of Brent crude, an international benchmark, to 85 a barrel. At its peak in June, a barrel had cost 115.
在價格逐漸下滑了三個月之后，油價在10月14日突然跌落到近4美元。這是近一年以來油價最大幅的單次下跌，同時使得國際基準—布倫特原油的價格降至85美元每桶。而在6月份，布倫特油價曾達到每桶115美元的最高峰值。
Normally, falling oil prices would boost global growth. A 10-a-barrel fall in the oil price transfers around 0.5% of world GDP from oil exporters to oil importers. Consumers in importing countries are more likely to spend the money quickly than cash-rich oil exporters. By boosting spending cheaper oil therefore tends to boost global output.
一般來說，油價的下降將會促進全球經濟的增長。每桶10美元的油價降幅將會導致原油進口商從出口商處得到世界GDP0.5%轉移。比起現金充裕的原油出口國，進口國家的消費者更傾向于快速消費。增加低價油的消費演變成了全球輸出的促進。
This time, though, matters are less clear cut. The big economic question is whether lower prices reflect weak demand or have been caused by a surge in the supply of crude. If weak demand is the culprit , that is worrying: it suggests the oil price is a symptom of weakening growth. If the source of weakness is financial (debt overhangs and so on), then cheaper oil may not boost growth all that much: consumers may simply use the gains to pay down their debts. Indeed, in some countries, cheaper oil may even make matters worse by increasing the risk of deflation. On the other hand, if plentiful supply is driving prices down, that is potentially better news: cheaper oil should eventually boost spending in the world's biggest economies.
然而現在有一個經濟疑問使得情況并不明朗，即低價反映的是需求疲軟還是原油的供給過度？ 如果罪魁禍首是需求疲軟，那么這是令人擔憂的：這表明原油價格是經濟增長減緩的征兆。如果減緩的原因是金融（債務積壓等原因），則原油的低價并不能明顯地促進經濟增長：消費者會用此剩余直接支付他們的債務。事實上，在許多國家， 低價原油增加了通貨緊縮的風險，甚至使得情況更加惡劣。另一方面，如果大量的供給才是價格下降的原因，那么這是一個潛在的好消息：低價原油會逐漸推動世界大型經濟體的消費。
The global economy is certainly weak. Japan's GDP fell in the second quarter. Germany's did too, and may be heading towards recession (recent figures for industrial production and exports were dreadful). America's growth has accelerated recently, but its recovery is weak by historical standards. Just before this week's oil-price slump, the International Monetary Fund cut its projection for global growth in 2014 for the third time this year to 3.3%. It is still expecting growth to pick up again in 2015, but only slightly.
全球經濟確實是疲軟的。日本以及德國的的GDP在第二季度下降，并且可能會進入不景氣（近期的工業生產和出口的數據很不明朗）。最近美國的增長速度加快了，但是由于歷史標準，其經濟復蘇是疲弱的。就在本周油價滑坡之前，國際貨幣基金第三次調低了2014年全球增長的預期至3.3%。雖然仍然預期2015年的增長會重振，但只是輕微地。
Weaker growth translates into lower energy demand. This week, the International Energy Agency, an oil importers' club, said it expects global demand to rise by just 700,000 barrels a day (b/d) this year. That is 200,000 b/d below its forecast only last month. Demand has been weak for a while but the recent slowdown—notably in Germany—took markets by surprise, hence the sharp fall in the price.
增長的疲軟轉化為了能源需求的降低。本周，原油進口組織—國際能源署稱期望今年全球需求會增長每日70萬桶。這比上個月的期望降低了每日20萬桶。需求將會持續疲弱，但近期，尤其是德國—的減緩讓市場意外，因此價格急劇下降。
But feeble demand is not the only explanation. There has also been a big supply shock. Since April last year the world's total output of oil has been rising strongly. Most months' output has been 1m-2m b/d a day higher than the year before. In September, this expansion jumped dramatically (see chart); global output was 2.8m b/d above the level of September 2013.
但是需求的低迷并只有一個解釋，這也收到了大量供給的沖擊。自從去年4月，世界原油總產出回升強勁。大多數月份的產出為每日100萬至200萬桶，高于前一年。在9月，這種增長大幅躍升（據表）；全球產出是每日280萬桶，高于2013年9月的水平。
Most of the growth in supply has come from countries that are not members of OPEC, the oil exporters' club—from America in particular. Thanks partly to increases in shale-oil output, the United States pumped 8.8m b/d in September—13% more than in the year before, 56% above the level of 2011 and not far short of Saudi Arabia. Russian oil production is also inching up, suggesting sanctions have not yet begun to be felt in its oilfields. In September, its output rose to 10.6m b/d, within a whisker of the highest monthly figure since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
供給增長主要來自OPEC成員國，出口國組織—尤其是美國。歸功于頁巖油產量的增長，9月美國的產量是每日880萬桶，比一年前高出13%，高于2011年56%，追近了與沙特阿拉伯差距。俄羅斯原油產量依舊穩步提升，表明原油領域至今還未受到制裁。在9月，其產量增長至每日1060萬桶，幾乎與前蘇聯的最高月份的數據相同。
Non-OPEC production, though, has been rising for a while. The biggest recent change has come from within the cartel. In April, Libya's production—hit by civil war—crashed to just 200,000 b/d; by the end of September output was back up to 900,000 b/d and heading towards its pre-war level of 1.5m b/d. No less surprisingly, Iraq's output is rising, too. The upshot is that OPEC production started to grow again in September after almost two years of decline, compounding the impact of growing non-OPEC supplies.
然而非OPEC成員國的產量一直在升高。近期最大的變化源于科特爾。在4月，利比亞的產量由于內戰跌至每日20萬桶；在9月末回升至每日90萬桶，并趨近于戰前每日150萬桶的水平。同樣意外的是，伊拉克的產量也在增長。結論是OPEC的產量在兩年的衰退之后從9月開始回升，同時伴隨著非OPEC國家的攻擊沖擊。
With demand weak, much of the extra output has gone into rebuilding oil stocks in rich countries. But that cannot go on indefinitely. As the hoarding slows, prices are likely to weaken again—unless world demand picks up or oil production is cut.
隨著需求的疲軟，大部分剩余的產出投入到了富裕國家原油存儲的重建。但是這并不能持久，當囤積減緩時，價格似乎會再次下降，除非全球需求回暖或原油生產下降。
Neither seems imminent. Antoine Halff, the IEA's chief oil analyst, points out that very little current production becomes uneconomic even at 80 a barrel. The break-even point for most American shale-oil producers has been falling as they have refined their fracking techniques, and is now well below 70 a barrel. So prices will have to fall further if they are to drive marginal producers out of business.
但似乎二者都很遙遠。國際能源機構首席石油分析師安托萬·哈爾夫指出，80美元每桶并不是不經濟的。大多數美國頁巖油廠商的收支平衡點在他們改善了fracking techniques之后，現在是低于70美元每桶的。如果他們想驅逐末端廠商，因此價格應進一步降低。
New trade patterns reinforce the downward pressure on prices. OPEC exporters once informally carved up the world between them, with Nigeria and Venezuela selling to America, smaller Gulf states to Japan, and so on. But American oil imports have fallen from 309m barrels a month in 2010 to 236m a month now. European demand is weak. So everyone is competing for market share in Asia.
新的貿易格局加強了價格的下向壓力。OPEC的出口商曾經非正式地瓜分了世界市場，隨著尼日利亞和委內瑞拉與美國交易，小海灣國家與日本交易等。但是美國原油進口從2010年的每月30900萬桶降至現今23600萬每月。歐洲的需求也是疲軟。因此市場正在亞洲市場上角逐。
Saudi Arabia shocked the rest of OPEC by cutting forward prices for Asian delivery and by increasing oil output slightly in September (by 107,000 barrels), at a time when other exporters wanted it to cut back. The organization is due to meet again in November. But as Kuwait's oil minister remarked recently, “I don't think there is a chance today that [OPEC] countries would reduce their production.” How soon—and how much—lower prices will translate into an increase in global demand, though, is far less certain.
沙特阿拉伯 降低了亞洲交付的價格，并在9月增加了少量的原油產量（至107000桶）。此舉震驚了OPEC的其他成員國。因此OPEC將在9月再次商談。但是科威特的石油部長近日稱，“我認為OPEC國家并沒有削減他們產量的機會。”價格的降低以及其反應速度對全球需求的增長有影響，雖然這未能確定。譯者：李美娜
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