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Europe's carmakers
歐洲汽車制造商
Polishing up
豪車
Cheap cars are not selling, so their makers are betting on expensive ones
在低檔車滯銷的情況下，制造商們紛紛把寶壓到了高檔轎車身上
It's shiny, but who will buy it?
非常閃耀的一輛車，然而，誰會買呢？
AN ARMY of buffers attends to the cars at motor shows, continually polishing them to a level of otherworldly gleam. The sparkle they are putting on models from Europe's mass-market carmakers at the Paris show, which opened to the public on October 4th, is at odds with the lacklustre state of the automotive market. But it reflects growing, if misguided, optimism among the manufacturers that they can sell more cars for more money.
一大群拋光技師正悉心呵護展覽會的參展車輛，以期將眼前的轎車擦得光亮無比。在本月4號對外開放的巴黎歐洲主流汽車車展上，制造商為旗下的車型加入了閃耀的元素，而這樣的步調卻是與低迷的車市行情迥然不同。但如果沒被其誤導的話，這也就意味著汽車市場的復蘇增長預期正被各大制造商所認可，他們對未來的銷量和銷售額均持有樂觀態度。
The carmakers' cheer is explained by a belief that the worst is over. Sales in Europe tumbled in the 2008 financial crisis, and have fallen every year since. Only 12.4m cars were sold in 2013, nearly 4m fewer than in 2007. But early this year a rebound began, and sales so far this year are up 6%.
制造商們歡呼的理由很簡單：他們相信“最艱難的日子已經過去了”。2008年金融危機期間，歐洲的汽車銷量大跌，而市場行情自那時起更是年年下降。2013年全年汽車銷售總量僅為1240萬輛，較2007年下降了約400萬輛。但今年早些時候汽車市場呈現出了復蘇的態勢，而截至現在汽車總銷量已經上漲了6%。
Unfortunately, it already seems to be fading. Gloomier analysts predict that after an increase of just 2% for this year as a whole, there may be no growth in 2015. Even if the recovery is stronger, IHS, a research firm, expects that demand will remain well below pre-crisis levels in 2020.
不幸地是，這樣的復蘇似乎已經處于消退的狀態。一些更為悲觀的分析師甚至預測，在今年整體的銷量取得2%增長的情況下，2015年的市場行情可能會毫無增長。即便是市場復蘇的力量增強了，但調查研究公司IHS的預期顯示，市場需求在2020年仍會處于遠低于金融危機發生前的水平。
This is grim for the firms which lean most heavily on Europe. PSA Peugeot-Citro?of France relies on the continent for almost three-quarters of revenues, though it hopes a recent tie-up with Dongfeng of China will boost sales there. Fiat's merger with Chrysler has provided insulation, but as with Ford and General Motors, Europe is still an open wound. All the mass-market firms lost money in the region last year, with the exception of VW. Its expensive Audi and Porsche brands keep its profits rolling in. And like BMW and Daimler, it has done well in China, whose rich regard fancy German cars a status symbol.
對于市場重心在歐洲市場的公司來說，這無異于一場嚴冬。雖然法國標致雪鐵龍（公司約四分之三的收入來源于歐洲大陸，但它希望近期通過與中國東風公司的合作，能夠使其在中國取得銷量的激增。菲亞特與克萊斯勒的并購降低了該公司的市場經營風險，但就算菲亞特公司是與福特或通用汽車合并，依然無法在整個低迷的歐洲市場中獲利。去年，除了大眾汽車以外的所有主流汽車制造商都處于虧損狀態。大眾汽車的高檔品牌奧迪和保時捷使其利潤源源不斷地流入。就像寶馬和戴姆勒公司一樣，大眾汽車也在中國取得了驕人的成績。在中國，富人們認為擁有一輛豪華的德國轎車就是身份地位的象征。
Other parts of the world that had helped keep some carmakers going have hit trouble. Recession in Brazil has been bad for Fiat and Renault. Ford's European factories are among those suffering as sales in the big and hitherto profitable Russian market are falling because of Western sanctions over Ukraine. Russian car sales may fall by a third this year, to 2m.
一部分制造商賴以生存的其他地區市場也遭遇到了麻煩。巴西市場的衰退使得菲亞特和雷諾的日子舉步維艱。由烏克蘭事件而導致的西方制裁，使得規模龐大且一直以來利潤豐厚的俄羅斯汽車市場出現銷量下滑，而這也使福特的歐洲工廠遭到沉重的打擊。今年全年俄羅斯汽車市場的銷量可能會下跌三分之一，跌至200萬輛。
Even after six years of falling sales, carmakers have not done enough to cut their excess capacity in western Europe. Haroon Hassan of Mitsubishi UFJ, a bank, reckons that together, their assembly lines are turning out just 65% of the 21m cars a year they could make at full tilt. Analysts reckon they need to run at 70-80% just to break even.
即便是遭受了6年的銷量下跌，車輛制造商們在削減西歐地區冗余產能方面仍做得不夠。三菱東京UFJ銀行的Haroon Hassan估計，在最大總產能為每年2100萬輛的情況下，目前制造商們的裝配生產線僅開動了65%。而據分析師們的估算，各大車廠需要使用70%至80%的產能，才能維持收支平衡。
GM and Ford have restructured the most, closing a couple of plants each. But governments and unions have prevented the scale of job cuts that might make a difference. PSA's closure of a car-assembly plant at Aulnay in 2013 was the first in France for 20 years. Workers at PSA and Renault have agreed to be more flexible, but only in return for a promise that no more factories will shut.
通用汽車與福特是兩家進行了產能重組最多的公司，他們各自都關閉了一些工廠。但政府和工會已經對阻止了他們的裁員計劃，僅允許其輕微地進行調整，因而對大局來說影響不大。在2013年，標志雪鐵龍關閉了其位于奧爾奈的車輛裝配廠，而這在20年以來的法國純屬首次。標致雪鐵龍和雷諾的工人已經跟資方就彈性工作時間的方案達成一致，但后者卻要給出“不再關閉旗下工廠”的保證。
Instead of making more cuts, the mass-market carmakers are aspiring to boost their volumes and margins with new, premium-priced models. At the Paris show, PSA unveiled the latest designs for its upmarket DS range. Fiat wants its underused Italian plants to turn out Jeeps, Alfa Romeos and Maseratis. Ford's Vignale and Renault's Initiale Paris brands offer high-specification versions of lowlier cars.
相對于進一步削減產能來說，主流汽車制造商更渴望刺激新型、高價轎車的銷量，以獲得更多利潤。在巴黎車展上，標致雪鐵龍發布了旗下最新型的車款，而該車款正是高檔車型DS系列的成員之一。菲亞特公司則希望將未充分運作的意大利工廠用以生產Jeeps、Alfa Romeos和Maseratis這三個高端品牌車輛。
They are pushing into a market that is already crowded. The upmarket German brands, and Jaguar Land Rover of Britain, have broadened their ranges to include more petite but pricey models. The big Japanese carmakers are relaunching their luxury marques. Moving upmarket is a long and expensive business for companies that do not have time or money to spare. And motorists do not value the mass-market companies' own brands enough to want to pay for more than basic models, no matter much polish is applied.
他們正努力擠入一個本來就擁擠無比的市場。高端市場的德系品牌，以及英國的捷豹路虎（Jaguar Land Rover），都已經拓展了其品牌范圍，其中涵蓋了更為嬌小但價格不菲的車型。日本大型汽車制造商也計劃著重新發布自己旗下的奢華品牌。走向高端市場這一戰略，對于沒有時間沒有閑錢的公司來說，意味著一項極為漫長和代價很高的任務。無論將車身打磨得多閃亮，司機們都不認為這些主流汽車公司的自有品牌，能夠讓自己掏出高于基本車款價格的錢。譯者：顏士竣
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