評論
打印
The western Balkans and the EU
西巴爾干半島和歐盟
In the queue
請排隊等候
The door to membership remains open, but the region must do more to get it
歐盟的大門永遠為西巴爾干半島敞開，但是該地區必須做更多方可獲得該身份
TO THOSE who oppose further European Union expansion to the western Balkans, the statement in July by Jean-Claude Juncker, the new European Commission president, was heartening. Negotiations would continue, he said, but “no further enlargement will take place over the next five years.” The political message seemed to be that the whole process was being slowed down.
對于那些反對西巴爾干半島入盟的人來說，新任歐盟委員會主席讓-克洛德·容克在七月份發表的聲明足以讓他們興奮不已。容克表示，談判仍在繼續，但是“未來五年不會有進一步外擴。”這則政治信息似乎顯示了歐盟擴大的整個進程正在慢下來。
The statement was “controversial and populistic,” says Stefan Fule, the outgoing enlargement commissioner, because no Balkan country would have been ready to join in the next five years. “It was a wrong message to the western Balkans at a wrong time”. Rumours spread the enlargement job would be dropped in Mr Juncker's new commission. A few angry words (and tweets) from Carl Bildt, the outgoing Swedish foreign minister, helped head that off. To drop the enlargement portfolio, he said, would be a “very bad signal” and an “abdication of responsibility”.
即將卸任的歐盟擴大委員會專員 斯特凡·富爾表示，由于巴爾干半島的國家并沒有做好在未來五年進入歐盟的準備，這個“民粹主義的聲明是很有爭議性的”。“對西巴爾干半島來說，這是個錯誤時間的錯誤信息”。關于歐盟擴大工作將被容克的新委員會腰斬的謠言正漫天傳播。而即將離任的瑞典外交部長卡爾比爾特的一些憤恨的言辭（和他的推文），有效地制止了謠言傳播。他說，擴大工作的中斷，將會是“一個極其不利的信號”和“一種對責任的放棄”。
The appointment earlier this month of Johannes Hahn, an Austrian, as the new commissioner, led to a search for meaning in his job title: neighbourhood policy and enlargement negotiations. The neighbourhood comprises six ex-Soviet countries plus the southern Mediterranean. Charles Tannock, a British member of the European Parliament, suggests that Mr Juncker's downplaying of enlargement “is to assuage public opinion”. It has become a harder sell, he says, because of fears of organised crime and migration, quite apart from the unrelated controversy about a future membership of Turkey.
在本月初，奧地利人約翰內斯哈恩被任命為新專員，引起了對他這個專員職位意義所在的一次探究：歐盟下一步要推進睦鄰政策和擴大協商。現如今歐盟的鄰居是6個前蘇聯國家和南地中海。英國人查爾斯坦諾克——歐洲議會成員——表示，容克對擴大政策的淡化就是在“平息輿論”。他表示，除了對土耳其的未來歐盟會員身份的無關爭議，出于對有組織犯罪和移民的恐慌，歐盟擴大策略愈發舉步維艱。
The western Balkans have lost the previous strong support of Britain, which mainly worries about immigration these days. But Germany has become more active. However, the deeper problems lie not within the EU but in the region itself. The progress of Bosnia, with its dysfunctional government, has been stalled for eight years. That of Macedonia remains blocked by a dispute with Greece about its name. Kosovo is so far behind that it remains the only country west of Ukraine whose citizens cannot travel to the EU's Schengen zone without a visa.
西巴爾干半島已經失去了先前來自英國的強力支持，而英國最近也十分頭疼外來移民問題。但德國卻越來越積極。然而更深層次的問題不在歐盟，而在于西巴爾干半島本身。因為政府功能失常，波斯尼亞的發展已經停滯了八年。馬其頓也因為與希臘在其名字上的爭論而一直閉關鎖國。科索沃如此落后，它仍舊是烏克蘭以西的唯一一個國家，其公民進入歐盟的申根區需要簽證。
This leaves Montenegro, which is negotiating, Albania, which became an official candidate in June, and Serbia, which has a green light to begin talks and hopes to do so by the end of the year. Tanja Miscevic, Serbia's chief negotiator, has mixed feelings. Putting the emphasis on negotiations is a good thing, she says, but political commitment also matters.
這種情況使得黑山目前正在積極談判，阿爾巴利亞已于6月份成為歐盟的正式候選人，還有塞爾維亞，也為談判開了綠燈并希望于今年年底落實。對此，塞爾維亞的首席談判專家Tanja Miscevic卻表現的喜憂參半。她說，著重談判是好事，但是政治承諾也很重要。
There is a risk, says a new report by The Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group of analysts, of a “Turkish scenario” of talks that never end. That could open up other dangers, including meddling by Russia or Turkey. The report suggests that giving up the goal of EU membership, even if not formally, would have consequences “for democracy, inter-ethnic relations and for long-term economic investments”.
歐洲政策咨詢委員會的分析師們針對巴爾干半島的一個最新報告顯示，永無盡頭的“土耳其方案”會談存有風險。這可能引出其他的危險，包括俄羅斯或是土耳其的干預。報告還表明，即使是形式上放棄加入歐盟，這樣做還是會對“民主國家、民族間關系和長期的經濟投資”有影響。
Luckily the western Balkans will shortly acquire one new ally in Brussels: Federica Mogherini, the Italian who is to be the EU's high representative for foreign policy. Her country, like Mr Hahn's, knows the Balkans well and understands that enlargement is a security issue. A stable Balkans is an asset for all, but an unstable and poor one could export crime and migrants or even lurch back into conflict. For Mr Juncker, says Miroslav Lajcak, the Slovak foreign minister, enlargement is clearly not a priority; but this need not cause the Balkans undue alarm. As Elmar Brok, chairman of the European Parliament's foreign-affairs committee gruffly sums up, they just need to do their homework.
幸運的是，西巴爾干半島將很快會在布魯塞爾獲得一個新同盟：將負責歐盟外交政策最高級代表的意大利人Federica Mogherini。與哈恩的國家一樣，她的國家，對巴爾干半島十分了解，也明白擴大問題是一種安全問題。一個穩定的巴爾干半島是世界的財富，但是一個動亂又貧窮的巴爾干半島很可能會輸出犯罪和移民甚至陷入戰爭。斯洛伐克外交部長Miroslav Lajcak表示，對于容克來說，歐盟擴大顯然不是應該優先考慮的事情，但是歐盟擴大也不必引起無故恐慌。就像Elmar Brok—歐洲議會外交事務委員會主席—總結的那樣，他們只需要做好自己分內的事就好。
