評論
打印
Israel and Palestine
巴以
The new normal
新常態
No matter what Israel's prime minister says, the conflict with the Palestinians cannot simply be “managed”
無論以色列總理說什么，巴以沖突都不可能簡單的“處理好”。
THE prime minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu, has sought to make life normal. While the Middle East has gone up in flames, Israel's economy has thrived. Cafés emptied a decade ago by Palestinian suicide-bombers are once again teeming with customers. Demonstrators in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have protested not just about war and peace, but even more vociferously about the price of cottage cheese.
以色列總理本雅明內塔尼亞胡正在設法使以色列回歸正常生活。雖然中東地區陷入火海，以色列的經濟卻蓬勃發展。十年前被巴勒斯坦人自殺式炸彈襲擊的咖啡館由門可羅雀恢復成如今的顧客滿盈。聚集在耶路撒冷和特拉維夫（以色列港市）的人民不再僅僅為了和平而示威，如今更多的卻是由于白干酪的物價過高而抗議。
This unreal normality is now under threat. After a two-year lull, rockets fired from Gaza have rained down on Israel. The Israel Defence Forces have struck hundreds of sites in Gaza. The army is ready to mobilise up to 40,000 reserves. The talk is of a ground offensive against Hamas, which governs Gaza (see article). Palestinians, 70 of whom have already been killed, are sliding towards a third uprising, or intifada.
然而這種不真實的正常生活如今已受到威脅。才過兩年平靜的生活，巴勒斯坦便從加沙發射火箭彈炮轟以色列；以色列國防軍隨即攻占加沙地區數百個地區，并欲召集達40,000人的預備隊對抗哈馬斯集團，如今他們已經控制住加沙地區（另見文）。巴勒斯坦死亡人數已達70人，盡管如此，他們仍將發動第三次起義，或者說是暴動。
Mr Netanyahu's mistake—compounded by the actions of Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinians on the West Bank—is to think that their versions of normality can be sustained simply by managing the conflict. A stand-off is always liable to tip into violence. Lasting peace will come about only when the two sides reach a comprehensive settlement.
內塔尼亞胡的失誤，再加上西岸(1967年被以色列占領的巴勒斯坦的約旦河西岸的部分)的巴勒斯坦領袖馬哈茂德·阿巴斯的行動，這似乎表明唯有平息兩國沖突才能維護他們想要的正常生活。兩軍對峙常常會演變成暴力沖突。也唯有達成全面和解，兩國才能擁有持久和平。
More than maintenance
不僅是維持
Today's violence was triggered by the murder of three Israeli teenagers, snatched on their way back from study at ayeshiva in an Israeli settlement in the West Bank. Mr Netanyahu blamed Hamas—on evidence that remains unclear—leading to the arrest of hundreds of Palestinians, including some prisoners who had recently been released under an American-sponsored scheme designed to boost peace talks with Mr Abbas. In retaliation, and outraged at the murder of a young Palestinian, militants fired rockets into Israel. The IDF responded with lethal force. In a few short days, the original offence was superseded by the logic of escalating action and reaction.
這次暴力行動的導火索是三名以色列青年被殺，他們在西岸的以色列殖民地ayeshiya上學，在放學路上被抓并殺害。內塔尼亞胡認為這是哈馬斯集團所為，盡管證據不足，但仍然逮捕了數百名巴勒斯坦人，其中包括近期由美國發起的同阿巴斯和平談判計劃中釋放的犯人。一名年輕的巴勒斯坦人被殺害激怒了激進分子，為了報復以色列便向其發射火箭彈。以色列國防軍（IDF）則施致命武力還以顏色。短短幾天，兩軍行動不斷升級。
Such fragility is a symptom of the influence of extremists on both sides. Some on the Israeli right see a chance to smash Hamas, which has been weakened in Gaza, both by its own incompetence and by Egypt's new government closing the tunnels leading from Sinai into Gaza. But Israeli force is more likely to revive Hamas than break it. The Islamists would once again rally support as the main resistance to the hated occupiers, whilst leaving Mr Abbas looking more like the stooge.
雙方激進分子的影響力很大，同時也很脆弱。支持以色列的激進分子看到了粉碎哈馬斯的希望，但由于自身無能和埃及新政府關閉了從西奈到加沙的隧道，導致在加沙的粉碎力量被削弱。但是以色列的武力貌似更可能復燃哈馬斯，而不是將其粉碎。伊斯蘭教徒可能會再次凝聚力量反對侵略者，阿巴斯則淪為配角。
Centrist Israelis would settle for periodic missions designed to tamp down Hamas—“mowing the lawn” they call it. The idea is that the occasional brutal show of force can buy a few more years of normality. Yet doing so is becoming harder. Even if Hamas's rockets remain inaccurate and are rarely lethal, the latest have reached parts of northern Israel 125 kilometres (80 miles) from Gaza. People in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem will, understandably, refuse to live under constant threat. Israel could of course smite its enemies with ever-bloodier fervour. But to the watching world, its overwhelming use of force, which always leaves many more Palestinians than Israelis dead, has often looked excessive—and its international standing, which moderate Israelis care about, tumbles further.
以色列中間派則認為階段性鎮壓哈馬斯即可，即所謂的“割草行動”。他們認為偶爾派軍隊進行殘酷鎮壓就可以換取數年的平靜生活。然而這種狀態也越來越難滿足。雖然哈馬斯的火箭彈從來不準，也鮮有致命，但是近期這次已經擊中離加沙僅125千米（80米）的以色列北部地區。特拉維夫市和耶路撒冷的人們不愿意生活在威脅之下也是情理之中。以色列當然也可以用更加血腥的方式還擊。但看看世界就會明白，壓倒式軍事行動通常只會使巴勒斯坦的死傷比以色列更加慘重；而溫和的以色列中間派所重視的國際聲望也會越跌越低。
In any case, the status quo on the Palestinian side looks untenable. Mr Abbas is tired and ineffectual. Under him, normality for the West Bank's Palestinians has come to mean accepting Israeli occupation while Israeli settlers gobble up ever more territory. Without even the prospect of statehood, Palestinians are impatient.
無論如何，巴勒斯坦都無法維持現狀。阿巴斯疲倦無能。在他的領導下，西岸的巴勒斯坦人要想過上正常生活就得接受被以色列占領，而同時，以色列就會貪婪地占領更多地方。國家地位堪憂，巴勒斯坦人民坐立不安。
For all these reasons, the failure of Mr Netanyahu to make peace a priority is dangerous. He did not make the most of the recent plan put forward by John Kerry, America's secretary of state. Both he and Mr Abbas recklessly pursued short-term advantage during the talks, leaving their countries vulnerable to those who argue that, with the hopes of peace exhausted, conflict is all that remains. That is wrong. Two states, one for Israelis and one for Palestinians, remains by far the greatest hope for peace. The parameters of an agreement are well-rehearsed. What is lacking is the conviction among reasonable people that such a settlement is needed now. Without that belief, Israel's normality will always have an air of unreality.
因此，出于所有這些原因，內塔尼亞胡促和平之舉的失敗會遭致危險。他并沒有充分重視美國國務卿約翰·克里近期提出的計劃。談判時，他和阿巴斯貪圖短期利益，欠缺考慮，置國家安危于不顧，一旦和平之夢破碎，沖突將無法避免。他們這種考慮是錯誤的。雖然兩國雙方，以色列和巴勒斯坦，都懷著至今為止最大的和平之夢；協議內容也經過精心安排。但是明理人士并不確信他們現在需要這樣一份協議。缺少信心，以色列回歸常態之夢總顯得虛幻。
