評論
打印
Popping property bubbles
戳破房地產泡沫
Choosing the right pin
選擇正確的針
House prices in Europe are losing touch with reality again. Deflating the bubbles will not be easy
歐洲的房價漸與現(xiàn)實脫節(jié)。擠壓泡沫并非易事
THE Swedish word bo means to live; sambo to cohabit. As more people struggle to get on the housing ladder, a new word has been coined: mambo, to live with your mum. After Oslo, Stockholm is Europe's fastest growing capital—its population is expected to expand by 50% by 2030—yet cranes are scarce. The 30,000 new arrivals each year have increased competition for housing, and record-low interest rates have allowed Stockholmers to afford bigger mortgages. As a result, Swedish house prices have more than trebled since 1996 and household debt has reached 174% of after-tax income. There is talk, naturally, of a bubble.
在瑞典語中，“bo”這個詞語意味著“生活”；而“sambo ”則意味著“同居。”隨著越來越多的人對于買房力不從心，一個全新的詞語被創(chuàng)造了出來：mambo，即“和你的媽媽住在一起”之意。在奧斯陸之后，斯德哥爾摩成為了歐洲增長最快的首都——其人口到2030年預計將會增長50%——然而，起重設備稀缺。每年三萬的新移民增加了住房競爭，并且創(chuàng)記錄的低利率使得斯德哥爾摩人民要承受更大的抵押貸款所帶來的壓力。因此，瑞典的房價已經(jīng)達到了自1996年以來的兩倍，家庭債務已經(jīng)達到了稅后的174%。最次有一個討論，自然地，也與泡沫有關。
It is not just Sweden: in June the IMF called on policymakers to do more to curb housing prices around the world, pointing out that valuations looked high in many countries. In May the European Central Bank singled out sky-high prices in Belgium, Finland and France; in July Moody's, a ratings agency, said that Britain showed signs of a new property bubble. The trend is all the more remarkable given that many of those economies have not fully recovered from the financial crisis and are growing feebly if at all.
不僅僅是瑞典：在六月的時候國際貨幣基金組織呼吁政府決策人員采取更多的措施來抑制世界范圍內的房價問題，并且指出某些國家的房價看起來更高了。今年五月的時候歐洲中央銀行也曾指出在比利時、芬蘭以及法國的房價簡直就是天價；在七月份的穆迪—一家評級機構的顯示英國出現(xiàn)了新的房地產泡沫的跡象。這一趨勢變得更加引人注目并且考慮到許多的經(jīng)濟還沒有完全的從金融危機中恢復過來，如若房地產泡沫持續(xù)增大的話，他們恐怕會變得越來越無力應對。
After the collective pre-crisis boom, European housing markets took two paths. Denmark, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain dropped sharply; some continue to fall. Others including Belgium, Britain, Norway and Sweden only dipped before rebounding with worrying speed (see chart).
在集體經(jīng)歷了危機前的繁榮之后，歐洲的房地產市場道分兩路。丹麥、希臘、愛爾蘭、荷蘭、葡萄牙以及西班牙的房價迅速跌落。其他的一些國家，包括比利時、英國、挪威以及瑞典的房價僅僅是在以令人擔憂的價格反彈前略微有所下降。
The ratio of house prices to rents is 65% above its historical average in Norway, 44% above it in Finland and 43% in Britain. Incomes are also failing to keep pace, with the price-to-income ratio 46% above its long-term average in Belgium and 27% in France. Things look even more outlandish in some cities. Apartment prices in Stockholm have risen 11% over the past year, after climbing 9% the year before; homes in London went up by 19%, thanks in part to foreign speculators.
在挪威，租房的價格也高于歷史水平65%，在法國和英國這個數(shù)字分別為44%和43%。人們的收入?yún)s是未能跟上這樣快的增長步伐，在比利時，房價收入比已高于其長期平均水平的46%，同樣的在法國，這個數(shù)字也已達到了27%。在其他一些城市，房價越發(fā)的劍走偏鋒。斯德哥爾摩的公寓價格自去年上漲了9%之后又；于去年一年內上漲了11%。倫敦的房價上漲了19%，著一定程度上要“歸功于”外國的炒房者。
Household debt is also hitting new records, as people take on bigger mortgages. In Norway, where the price of homes has risen fourfold since 1995, households now owe creditors two times their annual income after tax. Americans used to be far more indebted than Europeans. But Americans' debt is now below 105% of income after tax, whereas that of euro-zone households is almost 110%. “You cannot know you're in a bubble, but you can know that debt has moved too far,” says Urban Backstrom, a former governor of the Riksbank, Sweden's central bank. However, expectations that borrowing will stay cheap and not enough new homes will be built continue to push prices higher.
當人們不斷承受著更大的抵押貸款時，家庭債務的數(shù)量也達到了一個新高。在挪威，房屋價格自1995年起已經(jīng)增長了四倍，家庭欠債已經(jīng)高達其稅后年收入的兩倍。美國人的負債曾遠遠高于歐洲人。但美國人現(xiàn)在的債務低于稅后收入的105%，反之歐元區(qū)的家庭債務幾乎是稅后收入的110%。“你可能不知道自己身處在經(jīng)濟泡沫之中，但你可以感知到債臺高筑，” Urban Backstrom——瑞典央行的前高管說道。無論如何，根據(jù)預期顯示：貸款將會繼續(xù)保持廉價并且足夠的新房的建設將會把房價推向新高。
Central bankers cannot use interest rates to deflate the housing bubbles since, asset values aside, the economies of the countries concerned remain so sickly. Sweden's attempt to cool the market with an increase in rates in 2010 backfired: unemployment stopped falling and the country headed towards deflation, forcing the Riksbank start reducing rates again in 2011. If anything, monetary policy is likely to provide a further spur to house prices in the euro zone, since the ECB is toying with the idea of buying bonds in an effort to bring borrowing costs down yet further.
央行不能通過利率來擠壓房地產泡沫是因為除了資產價值以外，相關國家的經(jīng)濟持續(xù)保持病態(tài)。瑞典曾試圖通過提高利率來冷卻市場但結果事與愿違：失業(yè)率停止下降并且整個國家走向了通貨緊縮，迫使瑞典央行于2011年再次調低利率。如果說有什么不同的話，幣政策的調整似乎進一步的刺激了歐元區(qū)的房價，因為歐洲央行懷著不負責的想法單純的認為購買債券可以進一步的降低借貸成本。
Macro prudential tools, to discipline both banks and borrowers, are a subtler set of instruments. Setting stricter limits on the amount people can borrow relative to the purchase price (the “l(fā)oan-to-value” ratio, or LTV) or to their household income (loan-to-income ratio) helps to curb buyers' irrational exuberance; increasing the amount of capital that banks must hold against mortgages checks theirs.
為了規(guī)范銀行以及借款者，宏觀調控的工具，是一系列精細的儀器。它對于人們可以借款的數(shù)額做出了嚴格的限制，將其與物價（貸款價值比率，或稱“LTV”）或者他們的家庭收入（貸款收入比）掛鉤來幫助抑制購買者的非理性消費；或提高銀行為放設抵押貸款所必須持有的資本量的數(shù)額。
The Netherlands has applied strict limits of this sort, with striking results. In 2011, with the euro crisis in full swing, the average new mortgage in the Netherlands was 112% of the property's value, putting Dutch household debt among the highest in Europe. The authorities hastily introduced a host of restrictions: LTV was capped at 106% in 2012 and is due to fall to 100% by 2018; capital requirements for banks were raised immediately. The government is also gradually reducing the tax break for interest payments on mortgages. These changes, along with the economic downturn, were enough to push prices down 20% in three years in real terms (after accounting for inflation, that is).
荷蘭已經(jīng)上述嚴格的限制付諸于實踐，隨之而來的是顯著的結果。在2011年。隨著歐元區(qū)危機的全面展開，荷蘭平均的新的抵押貸款是其財產價值的112%，使荷蘭人的家庭債務在歐洲名列前茅。于是當局傖俗的出臺了一系列限制措施：2012年貸款價值比率的上限106%并且要于2018年下降至100%；銀行的資本要求也即刻被提高。政府也將逐漸降低抵押貸款付息的所得稅寬減額。這些改變，隨著經(jīng)濟的衰退，足夠使按實際值計算的物價在三年內下降20%。
In contrast, neighbouring Belgium, where house prices had moved in tandem with Dutch ones until 2010, has taken a hands-off approach. As a result, while Dutch house prices have plunged, Belgian ones have increased by 11%. Belgium's market is now so overpriced that its buyers are credited with helping revive prices in the south-eastern part of the Netherlands by moving over the border.
相比之下，在相臨近的比利時，其房價在2010年之前都與荷蘭不相上下，卻采取了不干涉的辦法。因此，當荷蘭的房價下跌之時，比利時的房價卻又增長了11%。比利時的房價現(xiàn)今已如此之高導致購房者認為穿越國境線而舉家搬遷到荷蘭的東南部才能有助于房價的回落。
To make matters more difficult for policymakers, Europe's property booms tend to be concentrated in capital cities, which are growing for the most part, even as other regions stagnate. Ireland provides an especially garish example. It is still full of ghostly developments of never-occupied houses. Yet in Dublin, which needs 8,000 new homes a year, fewer than 1,400 were built last year. That has helped to drive local house prices up by 23% over the past year, even as the property market in the rest of the country rose by a modest 5%.
是決策者們更加為難的是，歐洲的房地產泡沫往往集中于那些即使其他地方止步不前而其自身發(fā)展卻依然大踏步前進的首都城市。愛爾蘭就提供了一個非常特別的例子。那些從未被入住的房子如幽靈般瘋狂的增長。然而在都柏林這樣每年都有8,000套住房需求的地方，其去年建造的新房卻還不到1,400套。這使得當?shù)氐姆績r在過去的一年里上漲了23%，而該國家其他地區(qū)的房價只是適度的增長了5%。
In most growing European cities new construction is impeded by a thicket of planning restrictions, which could only be cut back with great political effort. The number of new homes completed in the European Union fell by a third between 2011 and 2013. Only three countries started building more homes last year than in the year before. In Paris the shortage of new homes is so acute that stories of illegal dwellings in cupboards and garages abound.
在歐洲的大多數(shù)城市新的工程都受到了通過極大地政治干預而所獲得的規(guī)劃限制的阻礙。新房的建成數(shù)量在2011到 2013之間減少了三分之一。只有英國、德國以及比利時這三國的房子較之去年有所增長。在巴黎房源的短缺非常嚴重，非法居住于碗櫥以及車庫的故事比比皆是。
Some countries have come up with clever measures to whittle down their housing deficits. This month Britain's central government launched a website that maps all its land and buildings, from offices to prisons, and invites the public to suggest better uses for them under a new “right to contest”. It has promised to release for sale any property whose current use it cannot justify. Another quick fix is to make it easier to convert unused offices and shops into houses.
一些國家已經(jīng)想出一些妙招來削減其住房赤字。本月英國中央政府建立了一個網(wǎng)站囊括了其從辦公室到監(jiān)獄的所有的土地以及建筑物，并且邀請公眾在一個全新的“比賽”中來賦予它們更好的用途。政府已承諾會釋放出售任何當前使用不當?shù)姆慨a。另一個權宜之計是將未使用的辦公室和商店更容易變成住房。
Perhaps the most striking innovation has been in Sweden, which in July began letting landowners build tiny rental cottages in their gardens, without any need for planning permission. These Attefallshus, can have a footprint of no more than 25 square metres and a height of no more than four metres. That is small, but it beats living with mum.
或許最影人矚目的創(chuàng)新是在瑞典，七月份開始他們允許業(yè)主可以在不需要任何規(guī)劃許可的情況下在其花園內構建微型住房。這些Attefallshus占地不超過25平方米高度不超過4米。小是小了一點，但也不至于和媽媽住在一起了。
