評論
打印
Ceasefire in Gaza
加沙停火
A war without winners
沒有贏家的戰爭
Sadly, the end of the fighting is unlikely to mark the beginning of the peace
很遺憾，戰斗結束并不就意味著和平到來
THE chances are that the latest of more than half a dozen ceasefires inGazawill hold—at least for a month or so, while the sides talk. The pause may even guide the Gazans and the Israelis to a more lasting accommodation. Yet the skies have fallen silent out of exhaustion and the futility of fighting on, rather than because the conflict has reached a resolution. Barring an unlikely change of heart—on both sides—war will probably begin all over again, sooner or later.
加沙已經停火許多次了，在各方都在談判時，最近的一次停火很可能維持下去，至少能維持一個月左右。這次停火也許能讓加沙人和以色列人走向更持續的和解。然而，天空之所以靜下來，不是因為沖突已經解決，而是因為大家精疲力竭，戰斗徒勞無用。雙方的心意都不大可能改變，戰爭很可能會再次開始，這是遲早的事。
More than 2,100 people have died in the tiny enclave, most of them civilians and many of them children. At least 230,000 of Gaza's 1.8m people have been displaced, says the UN. The likelihood that this war just sets up the next renders their suffering even more tragic. Hospitals, schools and the main electricity plant may take years to rebuild, only to be smashed yet again. The sole glimmer is that this bleak picture may concentrate minds to seek the distant prospect of two states—Israeland Palestine—living side by side in peace (see article).
在加沙這塊狹小的飛地上，已經有超過2100人喪生，大多數是平民，許多是還是孩子。聯合國稱，加沙180萬居民中，至少有23萬失去家園，背井離鄉。戰爭再次爆發的可能，使他們原來就痛苦生活，變得更加悲慘。醫院，學校，主要發電廠也許要花數年才能重建，而重建后又可能再次被毀。唯一的希望在于，這蒼涼黯淡的圖景，能讓大家專注起來，尋求兩個國家和平共處的遙遠前景。
No one has emerged from the battle stronger. On the Israeli side, Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, says that he has clobbered Hamas, the hardline Islamists who run the strip, and won this latest round by stopping the firing of rockets atIsraeland by unearthing the cross-border tunnels intended to enable raiding parties to seize or murder Israelis.
沒人從爭斗中變強。就以色列而言，本雅明·內塔尼亞胡總理說他已痛擊了哈馬斯，阻止了他們朝以色列發射火箭，破壞了讓哈馬斯突擊隊能綁架和殺害以色列人的隧道，因此贏了這一輪。
If so, he has paid a heavy price. War has weakened an already slowing economy. He is under attack at home from even more hawkish rivals within his coalition, who argue that he could have destroyed Hamas completely—though that would entail heavy casualties and a ruinous occupation, orGaza quite possibly falling into the hands of another Islamist group. Worse, each timeIsrael bombsGaza, its reputation ebbs in the rest of the world, where the media carry images of suffering children and smashed streets. EvenIsrael's vital American allies have shown rare irritation.
如果真是這樣，他的代價也不菲。戰爭削弱了本就不振的經濟。內塔尼亞胡在國內備受抨擊，甚至是他黨內更加強硬的對手都在抨擊他，批評他沒有徹底消滅哈馬斯，雖然要做到這一點必然得付出巨大傷亡，占領的也只是一片焦土，而且加沙很可能會落到另一個伊斯蘭組織手中。更糟糕的是，每次以色列轟炸加沙，它的國家聲譽就會嚴重受損，痛苦的孩子和破碎的街道的圖片充斥在各大媒體。即使是以色列的鐵桿盟友美國，也罕見的顯示出不耐煩。
Meanwhile, Hamas is stuck up a cul-de-sac. It has claimed victory—because it is still standing. And it is true that its grip onGaza, which was weakening before the fighting, still looks secure. But its main policy of sterile resistance toIsraelleads nowhere and comes at the expense of the lives and prosperity of ordinary Gazans. Palestinians should query the common sense, let alone the morality, of Hamas firing its fairly useless rockets randomly intoIsraelif the result is destruction forGazaon such a scale.
同時，哈馬斯也被困在死巷當中。哈馬斯聲稱已經獲得了勝利—因為它依然存在。確實，哈馬斯對加沙的控制看起來依然穩固，而在開戰之前，哈馬斯對加沙的控制力似乎是在減弱。但哈馬斯堅決對抗以色列的主要政策沒有前途，而且會以犧牲普通加沙人的生活和繁榮為代價。哈馬斯胡亂朝以色列發射火箭，根本沒什么用處，其后果是對加沙如此大規模的破壞，巴勒斯坦人應該問問，這么做究竟有沒有常識，更不要說合不合乎道義。
Crumb of comfort
些許安慰
Can anything good be salvaged from the rubble? This war has been bad even for the people who stayed out of it.Israel's moderates have not gained noticeably from Mr Netanyahu's travails. Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the more moderate Palestinians, is painted by his own people as an Israeli stooge, sapping his strength as a negotiating partner. But at least he still presides over a unity government that is committed to peace and is still—remarkably enough—backed by Hamas. He could press Hamas to disarm in exchange for a programme to rebuildGaza, with a neutral force overseeing the process. Or how about another crack at good-faith talks about two states? The ground has been dug over so often, including byAmericain the past, that progress could in theory be rapid.
能從瓦礫中挖出什么有用的東西嗎？這場戰爭，即使是對置身事外的人而言，都已經夠糟糕的了。以色列溫和派沒能從內塔尼亞胡的行動中得到什么。巴勒斯坦溫和派領導人穆罕默德·阿巴斯，則被自己人說成是以色列的傀儡，削弱了他作為談判人的實力。但是，至少，阿巴斯領導著一個致力于和平的聯合政府，而且跟不可思議地擁有哈馬斯的支持。阿巴斯可以對哈馬斯施壓，要他們放棄武力，以換取對加沙的重建計劃，重建進程將由中立力量監督。或者，干脆再推動兩國的誠意談判怎么樣？談判的基礎早就有了，而且之前也有過很多次努力，包括美國在過去所做的許多工作，理論上說，談判進程可以進行得很快。
It is not the ideas of well-meaning outsiders that are lacking, but the readiness ofIsraeland Hamas to strive for peace. Sadly, even with a ceasefire, that prospect still looks very distant.
身在局外，但用意良好的人并不少，但以色列和哈馬斯走向和平的意愿卻不足。遺憾的是，即使實現了停火，和平的前景依舊渺茫。
