評論
打印
Trading the yuan
人民幣交易
Yuawn
“元”之崛起？
Buzz about the rise of China's currency has run far ahead of sedate reality
人民幣升值的呼聲遠遠超于穩(wěn)定的現(xiàn)實環(huán)境
IF HEADLINES translated into trading volumes, the yuan would be well on its way to dominating the world's currency markets. It once again graced front pages this week after moves to lift its status in London, the world's biggest foreign-exchange market. This was the latest instalment of a five-year-long public-relations campaign. Since 2009, when China first declared its intention to promote the yuan internationally, a string of announcements and milestones has cast the Chinese currency as a putative rival to the dollar.
如果本文的標(biāo)題翻譯為“交易量”的話，那么它確實能夠很好地引出這樣一個事實：人民幣正走向貨幣交易市場的霸主之位。本周在倫敦這一全球最大的外匯交易市場里，幾個利好因素再次讓人民幣成為矚目的焦點。人民幣的公關(guān)推廣活動已歷時五年，而以上利好消息正是中國政府近期努力的最新成果。自2009年中國首次宣布推動人民幣國際化的意圖以來，一系列的政策公告和重大事件都使得中國貨幣成為了美元的假想敵。
The hype rests on several seemingly impressive numbers. Yuan deposits beyond China's borders have increased tenfold in the past five years. The “dim sum” bond market for yuan-denominated debt issued outside China has gone from non-existence to a dozen issuances a month. And the yuan is the second-most-used currency in the world for trade finance.
本次掀起的人民幣熱潮有賴于幾個看似驚人的指標(biāo)。人民幣的境外儲備量在過去的五年里上升了十倍。過去不曾存在的，在境外以人民幣計價的“點心債券”，目前每月都有十?dāng)?shù)次的發(fā)行量。與此同時，人民幣已經(jīng)成為了全球第二常用的貿(mào)易金融貨幣。
Adding to the impression that something big is afoot is the competition between cities around the world to establish themselves as yuan-trading hubs. London puffed up its chest this week after the Chinese government designated China Construction Bank as the official clearing bank for yuan-denominated transactions in Britain and agreed to launch direct trading between the pound and the yuan in China. These announcements were made to coincide with a trip to London by Li Keqiang, China's prime minister.
更令人震撼的是，全球各大城市之間都在爭先建設(shè)成為人民幣交易的中心。而本周，倫敦則先下一城：中國政府決定授權(quán)中國建設(shè)銀行有限公司擔(dān)任倫敦人民幣業(yè)務(wù)清算行，并且同意在銀行間外匯市場開展人民幣對英鎊直接交易。上述決議的公告是與中國國務(wù)院總理李克強的訪英之旅做出配合。
The designation of a clearing bank creates a channel for yuan held in Britain to flow into Chinese capital markets, boosting London's appeal as a trading centre for the currency. Other cities such as Frankfurt and Singapore have also been awarded clearing banks, but London already controls nearly 60% of yuan-denominated trade payments between Asia and Europe, and this week's agreement will shore up its position.
此次清算銀行的授權(quán)使得英國能夠擁有一條人民幣回流中國資本市場的通道，從而增加了倫敦作為全球貨幣結(jié)算中心的吸引力。雖然其他一些城市，例如法蘭克福和新加坡，都被授予了清算銀行的權(quán)限，但倫敦在歐亞間人民幣計價交易清算的市場份額早已接近60%，而本周的協(xié)議更進一步鞏固其優(yōu)勢地位。
London's currency traders, however, will not be hyperventilating. The rapid growth in the use of the yuan outside China, whether for trade settlement or investment, has been from a minuscule base. The yuan is the seventh-most-used currency in international payments, according to SWIFT, a global transfer system. That is up from 20th place at the start of 2012. However, the Chinese currency still accounts for a mere 1.4% of global payments, compared with the dollar's 42.5%. Given that many of those deals just shuffle cash between Chinese companies and their subsidiaries in Hong Kong, there is much less than meets the eye to the yuan's stature as a trade-settlement currency.
然而，倫敦的貨幣交易員并不會因此對人民幣感到興奮不已。無論是在國際貿(mào)易清算還是投資往來方面，支撐著中國境外人民幣使用量急速增長的基礎(chǔ)極為薄弱。環(huán)球銀行金融電信協(xié)會指出，目前人民幣在國際支付領(lǐng)域常用貨幣的排名里，從2012年初的第二十位上升到了第七位。但即便如此，中國貨幣在國際支付領(lǐng)域的份額也僅有1.4%，相比之下美元則為42.5%。考慮到涉及人民幣的許多交易都只是中國公司與其在香港分支機構(gòu)的資金流動，以人民幣作為國際貿(mào)易結(jié)算貨幣的情況遠比我們看到的要少。
Even more telling is the yuan's standing as an investment currency. The dollar's biggest selling point as a global reserve currency is the deep, liquid pool of American assets open to international buyers. Despite the barrage of reports in recent years about the dim-sum bond market, China's offerings are much sparser. Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group calculates that global investors have access to 56 trillion of American assets, including bonds and stocks. They can also get their hands on 29 trillion of euro-denominated assets and 17 trillion of Japanese ones. But when it comes to Chinese assets, just 0.3 trillion or so are open to foreign investors. This puts the yuan on a par with the Philippine peso and a bit above the Peruvian nuevo sol, Mr Anderson notes.
更能說明人民幣真實情況的是其作為投資貨幣的地位。美元作為國際儲備貨幣的最大賣點就在于，具有市場深度和流動性的美國資產(chǎn)在支撐著它，并且這些資產(chǎn)還對全球的投資者開放。除了近期鋪天蓋地宣傳報告的“點心債券”之外，中國能給予人民幣的支撐則少之又少。根據(jù)瑞銀股份有限公司北京首席新興市場經(jīng)濟學(xué)家喬納森·安德森的估算，全球投資者可以購買的包括債券和股票在內(nèi)的美國資產(chǎn)總值達到了56萬億美元。與此同時，市場可以購買到的歐元區(qū)資產(chǎn)達到了29萬億美元，日本資產(chǎn)方面則達到了17萬億美元。但對于中國資產(chǎn)來說，外國投資者能夠接觸的資產(chǎn)總值僅為0.3萬億美元。安德森先生指出，中國開放資產(chǎn)的程度使得人民幣的地位與菲律賓比索相當(dāng)，僅僅比秘魯索爾高一點點。
What is holding the yuan back? The answer is China itself—both by circumstance and, more importantly, by design. For a currency to go global, there has to be a path for it to leave its country of origin. The easiest route is via a trade deficit. For example, since the United States imports more than it exports, it in effect adds to global holdings of dollars on a daily basis. That does not work for China, which almost always runs a large trade surplus. It has tried to solve this problem by offering to pay for imports in yuan, while still accepting dollars for its exports.
是什么在阻礙著人民幣發(fā)展？答案就是中國自身。不僅僅是中國的現(xiàn)實環(huán)境所造成的，更重要的是中國制度設(shè)計上的原因。如果一種貨幣要走向全球，那么必須存在一個通道能讓其離開它的本國，而簡單的方法莫過于“貿(mào)易逆差”。比方說，由于美國進口產(chǎn)品的總值要大于其出口，因而實際上每天都有美元流到國際市場當(dāng)中。但這對于中國來說是行不通的，因為它幾乎總處于貿(mào)易順差的情況。中國已經(jīng)嘗試通過在對出口商品收取美元的同時，對進口商品支付人民幣的方法來解決問題。
Yet this approach can go only so far, because of the design of the Chinese system. Foreigners paid in yuan cannot do much with the currency and thus look askance at it. China could change this at a stroke by flinging open its capital account. There is speculation that it might do just that as debate about financial reform intensifies in Beijing. But Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank, predicts that caution will prevail, with the government slowly lowering its wall of capital controls rather than demolishing it. That would be far better for China's financial stability. But it also means that the chasm between the hype about the yuan and the mundane reality is likely to widen.
然而，由于中國貨幣系統(tǒng)設(shè)計的因素，導(dǎo)致了上述方法的作用十分有限。即便外國人在貿(mào)易過程中接受人民幣也改變不了宏觀現(xiàn)實，并且他們會因此產(chǎn)生對此種清算方式的厭惡情緒。目前，有人預(yù)測人民幣將進行大刀闊斧的激進改革，而這引起的波瀾將如同北京新一輪的經(jīng)濟改革所引起的爭論一樣。但前央行貨幣委員會委員（顧問）余永定預(yù)計，穩(wěn)健依舊會是中國政府的主要方針。他表示中國政府會緩慢降低資本管制的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而不是一蹴而就地開放資本市場。誠然，這樣的做法更有利于中國經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定性。與此同時，這也意味著人民幣熱潮所鼓吹的愿景，很可能將與現(xiàn)實漸行漸遠。
