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Elon Musk's gigafactory
埃隆·馬斯克的超級工廠
Assault on batteries
向電池產業進擊
Better power-packs will open the road for electric vehicles
更高性能的電池必定能促進電動汽車的發展
THE author of “Fifty Shades of Grey”, E.L. James, has mused at length about a billionaire inflicting punishment in her bondage-based bestseller. As the recipient of one of the first right-hand-drive versions of the Tesla Model S to hit Britain's roads, personally handed to her at an event in London last week by Elon Musk, the carmaker's wealthy boss, she is clearly attuned to billionaires dishing out pleasure too. The “range anxiety” that afflicts other electric-car owners has been minimised in the Model S by packing it with lots of batteries; the agony-inducing cost of filling up at the petrol station need never bother Ms James again.
在情色性虐小說《格雷的50道陰影》里，作者詹姆斯費盡心思地塑造出了一位喜歡對別人施加懲罰的億萬富翁。然而，當她從富有的車輛制造商埃隆·馬斯克本人手中接過一臺新車，一臺首次登陸英倫半島的右駕駛席版本特斯拉S型轎車，顯然地，她也會開始習慣于另一種億萬富翁的形象——給別人帶來快樂。特斯拉通過對S型轎車大量加裝電池，使得一直折磨著廣大電動汽車車主的“里程焦慮”問題變得微不足道；相應地，令人惱怒的油站等候時間從此不再是詹姆斯女士的麻煩之一。
Other all-electric cars, costly and with limited ranges, have proved a hard sell. The models from most mainstream carmakers still look and feel like gimmicks. Tesla's main achievement is producing a car which can be judged credibly alongside any fast and expensive petrol-propelled saloon. But the Californian company's long-term growth prospects, and the widespread adoption of electric cars, are both dependent on a big drop in battery costs. Tesla's next mission, to begin making a cheaper, mass-market electric vehicle in 2017, will rely heavily on ambitious plans for a new battery “gigafactory” in America.
出于經濟性和行車里程的限制，其他制造商的電動汽車都很難賣得動，而且現今汽車市場上的大部分主流制造商所推出的電動車依舊讓人感覺只是噱頭。而特斯拉電動車最主要的成就，是做到了能夠毫無疑問地和市場上任何高速、昂貴的汽油轎車相比肩。但這家總部位于加州的制造商所追求的長期增長目標，以及市場對電動車的廣泛接納，都有賴于電池成本的大幅降低。特斯拉想要在2017年推出更廉價更大眾化的電動汽車，而這一任務的成功與否取決于公司在美國的宏大計劃—建立新電池能源基地“千兆工廠”。
Batteries are the priciest bit of electric cars. Mr Musk, a founder of PayPal and a serial tech investor, claims that his come much cheaper than those of other carmakers. Although Tesla has designed the powerpacks and their associated circuitry, each of them contains up to 7,000 standard lithium-ion cells of the sort found in laptops. The firm is said to buy more of these sorts of cell than all the world's computer-makers combined.
電池是電動汽車的組成部件里最昂貴的。PayPal的創始人以及科技領域的投資者馬斯克先生，則宣稱他的電池比其他的車輛制造商要便宜得多。雖然特斯拉公司已經設計好了自己的電池組以及相關的電路構成，但每一份電池組都包含了7000塊相當于筆記本電腦使用的標準鋰離子充電電池。據稱，特斯拉準備采購的電池數量，比全世界其他車輛制造商所需要的總數加起來還要多。
Tesla argues that purchasing a common item in volume gives it a big advantage over other carmakers that have opted to commission custom-designed battery cells. It reckons that its battery packs, including their power-management and cooling systems, currently cost it less than $300 a kilowatt-hour of storage capacity, about half the costs of its rivals.
特斯拉公司強調，這種對普通物件進行大量采購的交易行為可以使自身在同行當中有很大的優勢，公司可以選擇去定制生產專門設計的電池。據特斯拉估計，包含動力管理和冷卻系統在內的電池組，目前每千瓦時的容量就能夠節約300美元的成本，相當于比同行們要便宜一半。
The gigafactory, which will eventually turn out batteries for 500,000 vehicles, should cut their cost by another 30%, according to Tesla (see chart). Mr Musk reckons that two-thirds of that saving will come from scale alone—the new factory will double the world's lithium-battery output—with the rest down to improved manufacturing technology. If Tesla makes good on its promise, electric motoring could finally take off. Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, reckons that when costs drop below $200 a kWh, battery-powered cars start to become competitive with conventional ones without subsidies. The gigafactory could bring Tesla close to that.
據特斯拉的資料顯示，最終他們的“千兆工廠”將會為50萬輛電動汽車提供足夠的電池，并且他們能夠另外再降低30%的生產成本。馬斯克先生預計上述的成本下降空間里，有三分之二是單獨取決于規模效益—這家新工廠將會使全球鋰離子電池產量翻倍；而另外的三分之一則取決于生產工藝的技術提升。如果特斯拉能夠實現自己的諾言，那么電動汽車或許真的能夠最終取代傳統汽車。據調查公司斯坦福·伯恩斯坦估計，當電動汽車的能源成本降至每千瓦時200美元之時，電動汽車便能在沒有補貼的情況下與傳統汽車競爭。“千兆工廠”或許能夠助特斯拉一臂之力。
Yet some analysts doubt Tesla's claims both of its current battery costs and its ability to cut them drastically. UBS, a bank, notes that raw materials account for 70% of the price of a lithium battery, making the scope for savings limited. And even if the factory does turn out lots of cheap battery cells, that will not be enough. Paul Rivera of Ricardo, an engineering consultant, reckons that the key to increasing range and performance, while cutting costs, is to improve the efficiency, size and price of the electronics that manage the power, along with overall vehicle weight. Tesla does not have the same advantages in these areas as it has with its batteries.
然而，不管是從現有電池的成本，還是從大力降低電池成本的能力出發，一些分析師都在質疑特斯拉的豪言壯語。瑞士聯合銀行提出，鋰離子電池的成本構成當中，70%取決于原料供應，而這就造成了電池成本下降空間有限。就算特斯拉的新工廠真的能夠開始提供大量的便宜電池，也遠遠無法將其帶向成功。一位工程咨詢師，Ricardo的保羅?里維拉認為，在成本削減的情況下，提高行車里程和行駛表現的關鍵在于改進電器設備的效率、尺寸和價格方面的問題，而總體車身重量也是一個不可忽略的因素。在上述方面，特斯拉并不像其在電池領域一樣有著足夠的優勢。
At a cost of $5 billion, which Tesla will share with Panasonic of Japan, its current battery supplier, and other partners, the gigafactory is a big gamble. But the company will surely get a good deal by playing off Arizona, Texas, New Mexico and Nevada, the states that want to host it. And if electric-car demand stalls, the huge output of cheap batteries could feed the market for distributed generation—storing energy from solar cells and discharging it when it is needed, helping consumers to go “off the grid”. Mr Musk, a self-confident man whose other projects include establishing a colony on Mars, is unlikely to be put off by the gigafactory's doubters.
特斯拉與其目前的主要電池供應商日本松下集團，以及其他的一些合作伙伴，將投入50億美元去實現“千兆工廠”計劃，進行一次豪賭。但無論如何，特斯拉都能在亞利桑那州、德州、新墨西哥州和內華達州的競爭之間嘗到甜頭，因為這些地區都希望該工廠能夠落戶到自己的地盤。同時，如果電動汽車的需求停滯不前，那么巨量的廉價電池能夠給分布式發電市場提供足夠的原材料——從太陽能電池當中儲存能源并且在有需要的時候給電池充電，使得消費者能夠擺脫“電網”的束縛。作為一位想要在火星上建立殖民地的人，自信滿滿的馬斯克先生不太可能會被新工廠的質疑者所阻擋。
