評論
打印
Electricity supply
電力供應
Profitable interruptions
盈利性的中斷
Collecting and trading spare electricity is a thriving industry
備用電力的收集與交易是一蓬勃發展的新興行業
SPIKES in demand for power and unexpected dips in supply have plagued electricity generators and their customers for decades. The solutions have been crude. More than a decade ago North American power companies started paying big consumers to switch off machines and devices to ease the load on creaking grids. In 2003 French producers did the same to cope with a heatwave.
激增的電力需求以及意想不到供給匱乏已經困擾了電力供應商及其客戶數十年之久。并且他們的解決方案原始而粗魯。十多年前北美電力公司開始賠付大的客戶用以關閉機器以及設備從而能夠緩解勉強運轉的電網壓力的金額。在2003年的時候法國的生產商為了應付反常的高溫也做了同樣的事情。
In some ways the problem has worsened. The rise in the use of renewable power, especially in Europe, has led to surges of supply on sunny and windy days and unpredictable lulls in conditions of cloud and calm. But that is a big opportunity for “demand-response” companies, which use computing power and clever algorithms to divert electricity from some consumers, such as factories or greenhouses, to users who need it more.
從某種程度而言，問題已經開始惡化。尤其是在歐洲，增加可再生能源的使用已經導致了在晴朗以及有風的天氣里的浪潮以及在在多云和無風的條件下不可想象的靜止，不過這對于那些運用運算能力以及巧妙的算法來從一些客戶那里—諸如工廠和溫室，轉移電流給那些共需要的用戶的“需求響應”公司而言是一個巨大的機遇。
Pioneered by technology firms rather than power producers, demand response is strongest in North America, but it is spreading fast. In a control room in London's fashionable Soho district, Ziko Abram of Kiwi Power shows off a “virtual” power plant with a capacity of more than 100 megawatts. Kiwi pays users for agreeing to switch off cooling and heating, pumps and other equipment when asked. A switch installed on a user's premises might be programmed to cut off power to freezers, for example, when they are cold enough. In other cases, Kiwi negotiates the cutoff with the consumer. It sells the spare capacity thus created to the National Grid.
技術型企業似乎比電力生產商更加倡導這樣的模式，雖然“需求響應”在美國做的是最強的，但它傳播的非常的迅速。在現今時髦的倫敦Soho區的一個控制室內，Kiwi Power的Ziko Abram展示了一個容量超過100萬瓦特“虛擬的”電廠。Kiwi會因為在必要的時候客戶同意切斷冷氣、暖氣、泵以及其他的設備賠付客戶。將一個開關安裝在住戶之處使得切斷冰柜的功率成為可能的程序，例如當冷氣已經足夠的時候。在其他的情況下，Kiwi會就斷電一事與客戶協商。它出售了閑置的生產設備從而來來建立國家電網。
Along with competitors such as Flexitricity, Kiwi also buys the right to use standby diesel generators in hospitals, government buildings and elsewhere. Rather than waste fuel by testing these machines every week, these institutions let Kiwi's technology switch them on when the grid requires. In power-poor South Africa an American firm, Comverge, has created a market in which companies can sell the electricity they choose not to consume.
與諸如Flexitricity的競爭對手一樣，Kiwi同樣的購買了醫院、政府建設以及其他一些地方的備用柴油發電機的使用權。與其讓每周的機器固定測試浪費燃料，倒不如讓這些體系使Kiwi的技術能夠掌控它們當電力被需要的時候。在電力缺乏的南非地區，一家美國公司，Comverge，已經選擇輸送電力給那些他們認為不會消耗能源的公司作為開拓市場。
Such services cope with spikes in consumption, which are mostly foreseeable. Fluctuations in wind and cloud can cause gluts or shortages within minutes. The conventional way to offset this is through gas, hydro or modern coal-fuelled power stations, which can be switched on or off quickly. But getting consumers to change their habits a little is potentially much cheaper.
這樣的服務用以應付那些大多都可預測的能源消耗高峰期。有風的日子或者陰天的波動會在分分鐘之內引起供過于求或者是能源短缺。用來抵消波動的傳統方法是通過煤氣、水利或者現代的燃煤發電站，它們均可以快速的被啟動或切斷。不過稍稍的改變一下消費者的生活習慣可能會比這便宜許多。
The prospects in Europe have brought a flurry of acquisitions. The world's biggest demand-response firm, Enernoc, a publicly traded American company, has bought a dozen foreign providers since 2005. Nearly 20% of its 383m revenues come from abroad. In February it bought Entelios, the biggest German company, with 600MW of capacity, and Activation Energy, the leading Irish firm.
這在英國的前景是帶來了一連串的收購。世界上最大的需求響應公司，美國上市公司Enerno，自2005年起已經并購了十二個外國供應商，其三十八億三千萬的收入有將近有20%來自于國外。在二月份的時候它有并購了Entelios這個德國最大的企業，擁有六十億瓦特的容量，以及活化能，愛爾蘭公司的領導者。
The industry has plenty of room to grow. In America it accounts for more than 20 gigawatts, or 2% of the total installed capacity, according to Colin McKerracher, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. It is concentrated in the north-east of the country. In the European Union, a much larger energy market, capacity is only 5.4GW, but BNEF forecasts it will grow to 15.3GW by 2020. Pulse Energy, a Canadian firm, expects to double its customer base to 2m by Christmas.
按照Colin McKerracher，這位彭博新能源財經分析師的看法，這位這個行業有很的的發展空間，在美國它約占兩千億瓦特或者說總裝機容量百分之二的比例。集中于國家的東北地區。在歐盟，這個更大的能源市場，其容量只有54億瓦特。但是BNEF預測其會在2020年的時候增長至153億瓦特。Pulse Energy，一家加拿大企業，希望到圣誕節的時候他們的客戶群能夠擴大一倍，達到二百萬之多。
Demand response still faces scepticism. People who run and regulate the network like power stations they can see, not virtual ones. “Is that really the sort of country we want to be—where you just cut the power off when supply gets tight?” asks an executive at one of Britain's “big six” energy providers. David Brewster of Enernoc says changing “100 years of policy and mindset” is a “slow grind”.
“需求響應”也同樣面臨著質疑。那些經營或者管理網絡的的人希望發電站是可以看得見摸得著的而不是虛擬的。“這確實是我們想要成為的那一類型嗎—僅僅是在供應緊張之時切斷電源嗎？”一個英國品牌“big six”的電量供應商的高級行政人員質疑道。Enernoc的David Brewster認為改變“100年的政策和方向”是一個“緩慢的折磨”。
Some parts of America already have well developed markets in capacity, where demand-response providers can bid alongside conventional power producers for supply contracts, typically three years in advance. Their cost advantage makes them increasingly competitive，
美國一些已經擁有良好市場容量的發達地區，“需求響應”的供應商可以與常規電力生產商為供應合同—通常來講是提前三年，共同報價。他們的成本優勢使得其越來越有競爭力。
Such markets are starting in Europe, too, but rules are still being written. Providers worry that regulators will tilt them in favour of conventional producers on such issues as response time and how much aggregation will be allowed.
這樣的市場同樣的也開始在歐洲發展，但是規則仍在編寫之中。供應商擔心監管者會在一些問題上，例如反應時間以及聚合多少的問題上，來撬動他們來贊成傳統生產廠商。
To be credible, demand response must be reliable. Grid managers want to know the power will be there when needed. That may favour the bigger demand-response companies—and the utilities, which could dominate the industry if they chose to enter it. Upstarts claim they have smarter algorithms. They say they are creating prime electricity out of subprime portfolios. That analogy will reassure neither customers nor rulemakers.
為了變得更加可靠，需求反應必須是切實可信賴的。電網管理者想要知道電力是能夠用在刀刃上的。這也許會贊成較大的“需求響應公司”—以及那些如果他們選擇進入的話能夠成為行業主導的公用事業。新貴們聲稱他們擁有更加智能的運算法則。他們說他們正在創造主要電力的次級抵押貸款投資組合。這種類比既不能讓消費者放心，也不能讓規則制定者放心。
