評論
打印
Leaders
社論
Syria's civil war
敘利亞內戰
Desperate times
艱難時刻
A conference on Syria is not enough. The West should also arm the rebels
敘利亞問題遠非一項會議可以解決，西方國家還應該為反對派提供武裝援助
NOBODY thinks that the Geneva negotiations, which began on January 22nd after months of effort, will bring peace right away.
經過數月努力后，日內瓦會議于1月22日召開，沒人相信此次調解會立即帶來和平。
But with civil war raging inside Syria, just getting people around the same table feels like progress; and, it is argued, the talks might lay the ground for negotiations that may one day lead to a ceasefire, or even to power changing hands.
然而，由于敘利亞國內戰爭甚囂塵上，單是將雙方集結到一張桌子上已屬不易。而且，據稱，此次對話可能為之后的談判奠定基礎，以實現最終的?；?，甚至是權利交接。
Meanwhile, they can broker local truces and get relief to Syrians dying for lack of food and medicine.
同時，這次的對話還可以調解地方沖突以求和平，為缺少食物和藥物的敘利亞人送去援助。
Anything that would alleviate Syria's plight is welcome.
任何有助于緩解敘利亞困境的行動都是受歡迎的。
But if America and Europe are serious about helping Syria, they should arm the rebels fighting the regime.
但是，如果美國和歐洲國家真相幫助敘利亞，他們應該武裝反對派，打擊政權。
Out-thinking, out-manoeuvring, inhuman
先發制人，慘無人道
That is a message people do not want to hear.
世人并不想聽到這樣的消息。
Then again, neither do they want to face up to the brutality inside Bashar Assad's prisons.
同樣，他們也不忍直視巴薩爾阿薩德監獄里的殘暴。
This is not casual thuggery but, as a security official who defected from the regime with thousands of horrific photographs has revealed, an audited policy of official terror administered on an industrial scale.
這并非一般的暗殺，而是一名安保人員，背叛組織后慘遭殺害，幾千張驚恐的圖片披露了這一行徑，一項官方恐怖的審計政策以工業規模展開。
The violence Mr Assad has used has driven reason and tolerance out of what was one of the Middle East's most integrated countries.
總統阿薩德的暴行使原本團結的中東國家失去了理性和包容。
Well over 100,000 people have died and millions have fled their homes.
10萬多人喪生，數百萬人流離失所。
The hatred is spreading to Lebanon and Iraq.
仇恨正向蔓延黎巴嫩和伊拉克。
The Geneva gathering cannot drain such an ocean of suffering and wrongdoing. It is built on the premise that Mr Assad will relinquish power through a transitional government.
日內瓦會議無法化解這無邊的苦海和冤屈，除非總統阿薩德能夠放棄權力，組件臨時政府。
But why should he?
但是，他這么做理由何在呢？
He believes he is winning. He is holding his own against rebel attacks, or even gaining territory.
他認為他正在獲得勝利。他正在盡全力對抗反對派，甚至擴張領土。
The programme to eliminate his chemical arsenal, imposed after he murdered about 1,000 civilians in a nerve-agent attack, has turned him into a partner of the West.
在他屠殺了1000多手無寸鐵的平民后，聯合國決議決定銷毀他的化學武器，但這卻使他成為西方國家的一員。
He set out to radicalise the rebels, releasing jihadists from his jails early in the conflict.
他決意激怒反對派，在沖突開始早些時候釋放了圣戰者。
This programme has been so successful that Western voters now think the rebels are as vile as Mr Assad.
這一激將法十分奏效，西方國家目前認為反對派同阿薩德一樣邪惡。
Geneva could even get in the way of peace.
可以說，日內瓦會議妨礙了和平進程。
The humanitarian aid that may come from the talks is desperately needed by Syrians, but it comes at a cost, because UN aid agencies will, again, depend on Mr Assad for co-operation.
敘利亞人亟需和談中可能達成的人道援助，但是這些援助卻不是免費的午餐，因為聯合國援助機構會再次依靠阿薩德的合作。
Peace is almost impossible unless Iran, Mr Assad's biggest backer, also leans on the regime.
除非伊朗—阿薩德最大的支持者，也支持這一政權，否則，敘利亞和平只能是泡影。
Yet Iran was barred from the conference only hours after having been invited, because it will not sign up to the condition that he surrenders power.
然而，伊朗在接受邀請數小時后就被拒絕參加會議，因為該國不同意阿薩德交出政權。
To cynics, Geneva is a device that lets everyone pretend to have a Syria policy even when they don't.
對批評人士來說，日內瓦會議只是權宜之計，讓所有人誤以為敘利亞問題有方法解決，實則是無計可施。
That may be deft diplomacy, but it is a licence for inaction, and the price is counted in Syrian suffering.
于外交來說，這一招妙不可言，但卻使不作為獲得了許可，而且代價在敘利亞傷亡中顯而易見。
As talks drag on, Russia and Iran will continue to boost Mr Assad's strength.
由于談判一再拖延，俄羅斯和伊朗將繼續為阿薩德提供援助。
It would be wrong to let the balance tilt so far that he can dictate terms.
力量失衡如此嚴重，讓阿薩德可以為所欲為，實屬下策。
The best way to break the deadlock would be for the West to arm and train selected rebels, as it should have done almost from the start of the violence.
打破僵局的最好辦法是西方武裝和訓練精挑細選的反對派，戰爭開始之初就應該這樣做。
Many fear that the beneficiary of money, equipment and arms would be al-Qaeda, which matches only Mr Assad in its contempt for human life and Western democracy.
許多人擔心錢財、設備和武器最后會落到基地組織手里，他們殘害生命和打擊西方政策的行徑與阿薩德不相上下。
But over the past few weeks that risk has diminished, as nationalist Sunni groups, including devout Islamists, have turned against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, an al-Qaeda affiliate.
但是，在過去的幾個星期里，風險已經降低，因為民族主義者遜尼派，包括虔誠的伊斯蘭教徒，已與伊斯蘭教國家伊拉克和ISIS反目，后者是基地組織的一個分支。
Not only are arms and money less likely to end up in the wrong hands, but the nicer rebels—even if they are not the most reliable or savoury allies—are the front line against ISIS, whose sectarian poison threatens the entire region.
不僅武器和錢不太可能落入賊手，稍顯仁慈的反對派—即使他們不是最可靠、最適合的同盟者，卻在前線對抗ISIS，其派別紛爭威脅著整個地區。
Even with more outside help, the rebels are not about to defeat Mr Assad.
即使外援增加，反對派也無意于扳倒阿薩德。
But turning the tide of the fighting might shift the negotiations, too.
然而，轉移斗爭的矛頭可能會影響談判。
If the regime is under pressure on the battlefield, it may be more willing to negotiate a proper ceasefire, or even, if people are tired of war, Mr Assad's departure.
如果政權在戰場上飽受壓力，阿薩德可能更樂意協議停火，或者，人們厭倦了戰爭，阿薩德會選擇放棄。
Moreover Iran can ill afford to finance a stalemate.
而且，如果伊朗意圖不軌，大可繼續為其提供援助，維持僵局。
When it has had enough of pouring money into Mr Assad's seemingly endless conflict, it may be willing to argue for peace.
待到有足夠的金錢支持阿薩德似乎無休止的戰爭時，伊朗可能會求和。
Some say that if outsiders continue to help the rebels, they will condemn Syria to even more suffering.
有人認為，如果外界繼續幫助反對派，可能會使敘利亞的苦難更加深重。
That is possible.
這一點并非不可能。
But the brutality Mr Assad has practised against his own people strengthens the case for trying to tip the balance of power against him, and the best way to persuade his backers to withdraw their aid is if the West has money on the table, too.
然而，阿薩德對其人們施行的暴政使外界決意使力量的天平向對方傾斜，而且勸退其支持者的最好辦法便是，西方國家也提供援助。
One thing is certain: if either Mr Assad or al-Qaeda prevails, Syria will continue to suffer for a very long time.
一件事可以肯定：無論阿薩德或基地組織任一方勝出，未來很長一段時間里，敘利亞都將繼續處于水深火熱中煎熬。
