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經濟學人:韓國住房市場 多軌并行

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Finance and economics

財經商業
South Korea's housing market
韓國住房市場
Lumping it
多軌并行
Landlords are having to ditch a century-old rental system
房東們正不得不拋棄持續了一個世紀的租房系統
Jeonse's future is hazy
Jeonse的租房方式看不到未來

MOST South Korean urbanites would leap at the chance to part with $150,000 to rent a smallish flat for three years in Seoul, the capital.

大多數韓國城市居民可能利用這一機會放棄在其首都首爾以150,000美元的價格租住一間小型公寓三年。
These days, however, most Korean landlords would spurn such a measly deposit.
然而,近日大多數韓國的房東可能摒棄這一少得可憐的保證金。
Korea's unusual rental system, known as jeonse, does not involve monthly rental payments.
韓國特殊的租房系統,被稱為Jeonse,并不支持付月租。
Instead, tenants provide landlords with a deposit, typically between a quarter and half of the property's value, to invest for the duration of the lease.
相反,房客向房東提供一筆保證金,保證金的數額一般在房產價值的四分之一到一半,讓他們在租期進行投資。
Property owners keep the returns and then repay the lump sum at the end of the tenancy.
房產所有者保存收益并在租期結束后,退還總額。
Average deposits have now risen for 76 consecutive weeks in Korea, the longest streak ever.
韓國平均保證金現在已經連續上升了76周,這是有史以來歷時最長的增長。
Thousands of jeonse leases in the capital are now as high as 90% of the value of the house; they sometimes exceed it in areas where property prices have fallen since leases were agreed.
在首都成千上萬的Jeonse 租約價值現在高達房屋價值的90%,在有些房價下降的地區,他們有時候超過這個比例,因為租約在過去已經達成。
The jeonse system was once prized by both tenants and landlords.
Jeonse體系曾廣受租客和房東的贊譽。
In the 1960s rapid urbanisation drew farmers to Korea's thriving cities, boosting demand for homes at a time when capital was being mobilised for state-led industrial development.
在1960年,高速的城市化促使農民前往新興城市,對房屋的需求在資本因為政府主導的工業發展而被調動起來時呈現爆炸性的增長。
The government thought property unproductive, so restricted banks from lending to developers, homeowners and tenants, says Son Jae-young, a professor of real estate at Konkuk University in Seoul.
首爾建國大學不動產方面的Son Jae-young教授這樣說道:政府認為房產對于生產力發展增益不大,因此限制銀行向開發商、房屋所有人和租客貸款。
In response jeonse emerged as a self-help funding mechanism.
Jeonse 體系因此衍生為一個自助融資機制。
Tenants' deposits financed landlords' properties, interest-free, while pushing renters to pool savings: over time, the deposit would become their own home-purchase fund. For decades, monthly rental was synonymous with poverty.
租客的保證金增長了房東的財產,而且沒有利息,同時促使租房者積蓄存款;隨著時間的發展,這些保證金會成為他們自己的購房基金。在過去的幾十年時間里,付月租是貧窮的代名詞。
Yet interest rates and property prices have sunk since 2008.
然而利率以及房價自從2008年開始已經下降。
To earn a decent return on their investments, landlords have been raising jeonse prices.
為了贏取一個可觀的投資回報,房主一直在提高 Jeonse的價格。
Tenants have tended to take out low-interest loans to cover the hike.
房客趨向于用低息貸款來支付不斷攀高的價格。
Since 2009 such borrowing has almost doubled, from 33.5 trillion won to 60 trillion won, according to the Bank of Korea, the central bank.
根據韓國中央銀行—韓國銀行的統計,自2009年以來,這樣的借款幾乎加倍,從33.5萬億韓元(31.5億美元)增長到了60萬億韓元。
That undermines one of the main advantages of this unusual system.
該舉削弱了這個獨特系統的一個主要優勢。
Previously the large cash deposits that tenants had to build up helped shelter the Korean property market from bubbles, by restraining price increases, and from busts, by providing buyers with ready pots of cash.
之前租客累積的大額現金保證金通過限制價格上漲避免韓國房產市場的泡沫并通過為賣方提供大量準備的現金防止破產。
It also helped protect the banking system from losses on risky mortgages.
它也有助于保護銀行系統,免受高風險抵押貸款的威脅。
Long considered a deal between individuals, the deposits are still not included in Korea's household debt statistics, nor in calculations of average loan-to-value ratios.
因為長期以來被認為是個體間的交易,這項保證金既不被納入韓國家庭債務統計,也不被用于計算平均住房擔保貸款率中。
Central bank data on jeonse loans only go back to 2009.
中央銀行有關jeonse貸款的數據只能追溯到2009年。
But Sun Dae-in, the author of a recent book on Korea's housing market, says the deposits held by landlords must be seen as debts.
但是,近期出版的有關韓國住房市場一書的作者Sun Dae-in 這樣說道:被房東持有的保證金必須被視作為債務。
He estimates that about half of all jeonse money is used to finance a second or third property.
他估計大約一半的Jeonse被用作購進第二或第三處房產。
If added to housing loans, the average LTV ratio would jump from just under 50% to over 75%.
如果增加到住房貸款,平均住房擔保貸款 比率會從低于50%的水平攀升至超過75%。
Last November the Bank of Korea estimated that a tenth of Korea's 3.7m jeonse landlords may find it hard to repay tenants' deposits.
上個十一月份,韓國銀行估計370萬 Jeonse房東的十分之一或許會發現支付租客的保證金有困難。
Already more landlords are choosing to rent their properties for a monthly fee: 40% did so last year, up from 34% in 2012.
已經有越來越多的房東選擇按月費的方式來出租他們的房產。
But some homeowners would rather not ditch jeonse entirely: more than a quarter are using its hefty sums to pay off a mortgage on the rented property, according to the Bank of Korea.
但是一些房屋所有者不愿意完全放棄Jeonse:根據韓國銀行的數據,超過四分之一的人正通過其龐大的總量來償還抵押他們已經出租的房產的貸款。
They often offer tenants the option to substitute a monthly payment for an increase in the deposit.
他們通常提供租客用月付方式來替代保證金的增長的選擇。
A hybrid system, still unique to Korea, is taking root.
一個依然有著韓國特色的混合系統正在生根發芽。
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