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The cigarette industry
卷煙工業
Running out of puff
強弩之末
Big tobacco firms are maintaining their poise, but quietly wheezing
煙草巨頭們都保持姿態，蓄勢待發。
CIGARETTE smoking is a health hazard of sufficient importance in the United States to warrant appropriate remedial action.
吸煙在美國是一項引起足夠重視的健康危害，以保障適當的補救措施。
It was 50 years ago this month that America's surgeon-general sounded that warning, marking the beginning of the end of cigarette manufacturing—and of smoking itself—as a respectable activity.
這是50年前的這個月美國衛生部部長發出的警告。這一警告的發出標志著卷煙制造業以及吸煙這一行為本身不再是一項讓人尊敬的行為。
Some 20m Americans have died from the habit since then.
從那時起，大約有2千萬美國人死于吸煙。
But advertising restrictions, smoking bans and stigma have had their effect: the proportion of American adults who smoke has dropped from 43% to 18%; smoking rates among teenagers are at a record low.
但是不論是廣告限制或是嚴禁吸煙的標志都還是起到了作用：吸煙的美國成年人比例已經從43%下降到了18%，青少年的吸煙率也處于歷史新低，
In many other countries the trends are similar.
這種趨勢在其他國家也是相似的。
The current surgeon-general, Boris Lushniak, marked the half-century with a report on January 17th, declaring smoking even deadlier than previously thought.
現任衛生部部長，鮑里斯在1月17日發布的報道對過去的50年作了總結，指出吸煙比預期的更加致命。
He added diabetes, colorectal cancer and other ailments to the list of ills it causes, and promised end-game strategies to stamp out cigarettes altogether.
在吸煙導致的疾病里，他加入了糖尿病，直腸癌和其它病癥，并且提出了終結策略來完全杜絕香煙。
Were that to happen America's three big tobacco firms, Altria, Reynolds and Lorillard, could be snuffed out, too.
美國三大煙草公司，奧馳亞，雷諾和羅瑞拉德煙草公司會因此而被扼殺嗎？
Public-health officials plot the same fate for multinationals that supply other markets.
衛生部的官員們為供應其它市場的跨國公司也安排了相同的命運。
The hit list includes Philip Morris International, which along with Altria makes Marlboro, the top-selling global brand; Japan Tobacco; and British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco of Britain.
這其中包括菲利普莫里斯國際公司，它和奧馳亞一起打造了萬寶路這一全球最暢銷的品牌，除此之外還有日本煙草公司、英美煙草公司和英國的帝國煙草公司。
They are a hardy bunch, unlikely to be spooked.
這些公司都是硬骨頭，不太容易被震懾到。
But the methods they have used to withstand a half-century of battering by regulators may be losing potency.
但是他們采取的與監管部門周旋了半個世紀的方法可能會失去效力。
In the rich world, where the economy is sluggish, smokers are trading down to cheaper puffs.
在經濟低迷的富裕國家，吸煙者開始選擇便宜的產品進行交易，
The regulatory climate in developing countries is becoming more hostile.
發展中國家的監管環境也變得更加嚴苛。
New technologies such as e-cigarettes promise to deliver nicotine less riskily.
一些新的技術，比如電子香煙承諾提供危害風險更小的尼古丁。
Big tobacco firms may master them, but it would be a radical shift, akin to converting the car industry from internal-combustion engines to battery power.
大的煙草公司可能掌握這項技術，但是這將是一個根本性的轉變。類似于汽車產業中從內燃機到電池電源的轉變。
David Adelman of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, does not see anything that's upending the conventional tobacco business model.
摩根士丹利投資銀行的大衛阿德爾曼表示，并沒有看到任何的顛覆了傳統的煙草商業模式，
But the model needs tweaking.
但模型需要調整。
Some reasons for Mr Adelman's confidence are sound. Advertising bans and the industry's pariah status deter would-be competitors.
阿德爾曼先生有這樣的信心是有理有據的，廣告禁令以及煙草業所處的低賤地位都將阻止潛在競爭者的出現。
When cigarette-makers raise prices, smokers cough up.
當卷煙制造商提高價格的時候，煙民們就咳嗽起來。
Global consumption keeps rising, thanks largely to population growth in poorer countries.
由于貧困國家人口的快速增長，全球消費量不斷上升。
The cigarette giants pamper investors with big dividends and share buy-backs; they have flocked to tobacco shares.
煙草巨頭們放任投資者獲得豐厚的分紅以及股票回購，使得投資者紛紛涌向煙草股。
But the going is getting tougher.
但是這種發展趨勢已是舉步維艱。
This month health officials in China, home to more smokers than any other country, called for a ban on smoking in public places.
中國作為擁有比其他任何國家更多煙民的國家于本月由衛生部的官員發布了禁止公共場所吸煙的禁令。
That would mainly affect state-owned China Tobacco, which has a near-monopoly.
這將主要影響到在行業中幾乎處于壟斷地位的中國煙草國有企業。
But multinationals' shares wobbled anyway: the proposed crackdown could portend tighter regulation elsewhere.
但是跨國公司的股份也是搖擺不定：打擊的提議可能會預示著更為嚴格的監管。
Britain's government, after some wavering, may now go ahead and copy Australia's requirement for cigarettes to be sold in ugly, scary plain packs.
英國政府在幾番舉棋不定后最終決定采取與澳大利亞同樣的做法，在煙草的包裝上采用印有丑陋恐怖圖案的普通包裝。
Such pleasure-pinching regulation strikes at one of the main ways cigarette companies boost profits: converting smokers to pricier brands.
這種pleasure-pinching監管方式主要打擊的是煙草公司獲取利潤的其中一種方式：促使吸煙者選擇價格更高的品牌。
Premiumisation is still happening in developing countries, where incomes are rising.
消費品質優化仍然發生在那些收入增加的發展中國家。
But elsewhere smokers are turning to cheaper brands or rolling their own cigarettes.
但是在其他地方煙民們開始轉而選擇低價品牌或是自己卷煙。
Many smokers will not trade back up once the economy improves, largely because smoking and advertising bans have robbed the habit of its air of glamour.
當經濟有所好轉時，許多煙民也不會改變他們的選擇，這很大程度上是因為吸煙和煙草廣告的禁令已經奪走了煙草香味一貫的魅力。
Euromonitor International, a research firm, forecasts that everywhere except in Asia and the Middle East prices will rise less from 2012 to 2017 than they did during the previous five years
歐睿國際預測除了亞洲和中東地區外，從2012年到2017年煙草價格的上漲將低于過去5年來價格的上漲。
Shane MacGuill of Euromonitor sees in all this a very serious threat to the long-term health of the tobacco industry.
歐睿國際的巴蒂爾認為這些對于煙草業長期的健康發展是一個嚴重的威脅。
This is spurring a quest for safer methods of supplying smokers with their nicotine fixes.
這將促使該行業煙民們以更加安全的方式提供尼古丁。
Most of the hype is about e-cigarettes, which give users a hit of vapour infused with nicotine but none of the other, nastier ingredients of tobacco smoke.
這其中最有可能的方式就是電子香煙，這種香煙主要提供的是尼古丁蒸汽而不含其它物質，特別是煙草中的有害成分。
In America, the fastest adopter, sales have jumped from nearly nothing five years ago to at least 1 billion in 2013.
在美國最先采用這種方式的廠家，5年來其銷售量實現了從零開始的激增，截止2013年已經達到至少10億美元。
At first, it looked as if e-cigarettes might lure smokers from the big tobacco brands to startups such as NJOY.
起初的時候，電子香煙似乎已經誘導煙民們從大的煙草品牌轉向諸如NJOY的新興公司。
But incumbents have been quick to see the threat.
但是公司們也都迅速的意識到了這種威脅。
Lorillard acquired Blu, now the biggest American brand, in 2012.
羅瑞拉德煙草公司于2012年收購了藍光這一現今最大的美國品牌。
Altria and Reynolds are expected to launch e-cig ventures nationwide this year.
奧馳亞集團和雷諾預計今年將在全國范圍內推出電子香煙業務。
Imperial recently acquired the e-cigarette operations of Dragonite, a Chinese firm that pioneered the technology.
帝國煙草公司最近收購了一家名為叁龍的中國公司，因為該公司率先掌握了該項技術。
Though not the first movers, tobacco companies have bigger war chests, more knowledge of smokers' habits and better ties to distributors than the newcomers.
雖然不是起步最早的，但是煙草公司比起新進的公司來說更具實力，它們更了解煙民們的習慣也有更多的分銷渠道。
Some pundits reckon Americans will puff more e-cigarettes than normal ones within a decade, but tobacco folk are sceptical.
一些專家預測在未來的十年里，美國人將消費更多的電子香煙，但是煙民們對此卻持懷疑態度。
E-cigs account for just 1% of America's cigarette market.
在美國的煙草市場，電子香煙只占到了1%的份額。
In Europe 7% of smokers had tried vaping by 2012 but only 1% kept it up.
在歐洲，有7%的煙民都試過了這種 電子煙霧,但是只有1%的人到2012年還在使用。
PMI has higher hopes for a new type of cigarette, which heats tobacco rather than burning it.
PMI公司更希望有一種全新的香煙，這種香煙只是加熱煙草而不點燃。
Such cigarettes could deliver fewer toxins than conventional sticks and more pleasure than mere vapour.
這種香煙比起普通香煙產生的毒素更少，而與電子香煙的煙霧相比又能使人更加愉悅。
PMI says it will invest up to 500m in a factory in Italy to make them.
PMI公司表示它們將投入5億歐元到意大利一家生產這種香煙的工廠。
Earlier efforts to hook smokers on heated tobacco flopped, so there is no assurance that PMI's versions will succeed.
早期為了使煙民們使用加熱煙草的努力都以失敗告終，因而不能保證PMI公司的這一思路能得以實現。
And no one knows what sort of restrictions regulators will eventually place on reduced risk products, including e-cigarettes.
并且每人知道對于包括電子香煙在內的降低風險產品會出臺什么樣的監管措施。
If they can manage the transition to less harmful smokes, and convince regulators to be sensible, the tobacco giants could keep up the sort of performance that has made their shares such a fine investment over the years.
如果這些公司能實現向低危害的煙草的轉變，并且說服監管機構意識到這種轉變。那么這些煙草巨頭們將能有實力繼續為他們的投資者們提供豐厚的分紅。
But some analysts are not so sure.
但是一些分析人士對此卻不那么肯定。
Many tobacco firms are struggling to deliver the consistency of the earnings-per-share model we've seen in the past, says David Hayes of Nomura. If that persists, investors may fall out of love with the industry.
野村公司的大衛表示許多的煙草公司都在掙扎著想要繼續沿用以前煙草按股數收益的經營方式。如果它們堅持，那么它們的投資者們可能會失去對該行業的興趣。
A half-century after the surgeon-general's alarm, they, and incorrigible puffers, are its last remaining friends.
從衛生部部長發出警告的半個世紀以來，這些公司最后的朋友就只剩那些已經無藥可救的煙民們了。
