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經濟學人:民用航空發動機 奮力一戰

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商業報道
Civilian jet engines
民用航空發動機
Gearing up for a fight
奮力一戰
Pratt & Whitney hopes a high-tech engine will restore its former dominance.
普拉特·惠特尼公司期待其新款的高科技航空發動機能重塑往日的統治力。
A challenger in the air
空中的挑戰者
THE business of propelling large passenger jets is at maximum thrust.
大型載客飛機的業務正以史無前例的速度在發展。
Boeing and Airbus delivered a record 1,300 planes between them last year.
波音和空客在去年相繼打破1,300架飛機的紀錄。
They also racked up 2,800 new orders to bring their combined backlog to well over 10,000.
它們還贏得了2,800架飛機的新訂單,從而使它們的共同未完成訂單數沖破了10,000。
The engines account for up to a third of the value of a new jet.
由于飛機發動機的價值為整個飛機的三分之一,

So some pundits reckon engine-makers' revenues could total 1 trillion over the next 20 years.

不少權威人士認定發動機制造商的利潤總和會在未來20年內達到1萬億。
Pratt & Whitney used to tower over the market for such engines but these days it is third-placed in a business dominated by GE, another American company, and Rolls-Royce, of Britain. Pratt is now hoping to claw its way back to the top with its new generation of jet engine, the geared turbofan.
普惠公司曾在飛機發動機市場獨占鰲頭,然而今年來它已經跌到了第三位:該業務的頭兩位是同為美國公司的通用電氣和英國的勞斯萊斯。
This has a gearbox that lets the fan at the front of the engine turn at a different speed to the compressors inside it.
普惠現在希望借助其新一代飛機發動機—齒輪傳動渦輪發動機重奪市場。
By allowing each to run at optimal speeds it makes the engine more efficient.
該款發動機的變速齒輪箱可以使發動機前端的風扇根據內部的壓縮機改變速度,從而能通過使發動機以最優速度運轉來提高效率。
Pratt's new engine is one of the options airlines can choose when ordering Airbus's revamped version of its A320 narrowbody jet, used for short- to medium-haul routes.
各航線在訂購空客公司用于中短程線路的改進版A320窄體客機時,普惠的新型發動機是其選擇之一。
It is the only choice on the CSeries, a jet whose Canadian maker, Bombardier, is seeking to bust a duopoly between Airbus and Boeing for narrowbodies.
而Bombardier—一家想在窄體機上打破空客和波音雙頭壟斷的加拿大飛機制造商—旗下的C系列機型全部采用了這款發動機。
But the CSeries's entry into service was this month put back until perhaps 2015, two years later than first planned.
但C系列服役的時間在本月被推遲了,而且可能要一直等到2015年,這比原來計劃的要晚上兩年。
Understanding the aero-engine business is made harder by the fact that as they compete ferociously in one part of the market, manufacturers work together in joint ventures in other parts.
制作商一方面在局部市場上激烈競爭一方面又在另一部分市場上相互合作的事實使人很難理解航空發動機業務。
In all, about 70% of the world's jetliner engines are made either by GE alone or by CFM International, GE's joint venture with Snecma of France.
世界上所有噴氣客機的發動機中70%是由通用電氣或者CFM國際制造的。
CFM supplies all the engines for Boeing's 737, its rival to the A320.
CFM為波音旗下和A320競爭的另一款機型737提供發動機。
Buyers of A320s can currently choose between a CFM engine or one from International Aero Engines, a consortium including Pratt and Japanese and German firms.
如今,A320的購買者也可以在CFM和國際航空發動的發動機之間做出選擇。
For bigger widebody jets, Rolls and GE are the main contenders.
而大型的廣體飛機的主要供應商則是勞斯萊斯和通用電氣。
Rivalry was more intense in the past.
在過去,競爭要更為激烈。
But the cost of developing a new engine, at around 1 billion, resulted in today's odd mix of competition and collaboration.
但是研發新型發動機所需的大約10億美元高額費用造成了今天這種競爭和合作共存的怪異局面。
Airlines prefer competition, to keep costs down, but there are some advantages to doing without it.
各大航線樂于看到這種競爭,它能降低價格。但是如果沒有這種競爭也能帶來一些好處。
It means the plane and engine are made for each other, optimising their performance.
比如,這意味著飛機和發動機將會相互訂制,從而使性能達到最佳。
An engine-maker guaranteed exclusivity may contribute towards the development costs of a new plane, cutting the risks borne by the planemakers.
一家專門的發動機供應商可以為降低新型飛機的研發費用做出貢獻,減少飛機制造商們的負擔。
Pratt has got by for years on its military-jet engines, its slice of IAE and by milking its installed base of older civil-aircraft engines, which need lots of maintenance and spare parts.
今年來普惠主要依靠軍用飛機發動機,IAE的股份以及舊款民用航空發動機來維持運營,然而這些發動機需要更多的維修和零部件。
But from 2016, when the first revamped A320 is scheduled for delivery, its new geared turbofan engines, which it will make all by itself, will go head-to-head against CFM's LEAP.
而等到2016年改進版的A320按計劃開始服役,普惠獨立制造的齒輪傳動渦輪發動機將能夠和CFM的LEAP發動機齊頭并進。
This is a more conventional engine design, but uses sophisticated composite materials to achieve the same fuel-efficiency savings, of around 15%, that airlines are demanding.
該款發動機的設計更為傳統,但采用了組分更為復雜的材料來提高效率,能夠節省航空公司要求的15%的燃料。
Pratt may eventually produce versions of its geared turbofan for wide-bodied jets, where profits are fatter.
普惠最終甚至會研發用于廣體飛機的齒輪傳動渦輪發動機,這一類發動機的利潤要高得多。
Rolls, having given up on the narrowbodied market, plans to return when Boeing and Airbus replace their 737s and A320s with entirely new models—but that is a decade or more away.
已經放棄窄體機市場的勞斯萊斯計劃在波音和空客用全新的機型替代737和A320后重返該市場,不過這要十多年后了。
Chinese and Russian firms want to enter the fray, though that may take even longer.
中國和俄羅斯的公司也想分一杯羹,當然這需要更長的時間。
In the meantime, Rob Morris of Ascend, an aviation consultancy, notes that the tendency towards having just one engine option per plane is growing.
與此同時,航空咨詢公司超越集團的Rob Morris提到各飛機只搭配一款發動機的趨勢逐漸流行。
For example, Rolls is the only engine supplier for Airbus's new long-haul plane, the A350, which had its first test flight last year.
比如,空客的新型長途飛機A350就只有勞斯萊斯一個發動機供應商,該款機型已經在去年初次試飛。
GE declined to offer an engine because some variants of the A350 are in direct competition with Boeing's 777, on which GE already supplies all the engines.
通用電氣拒絕提供發動機的原因是A350的一些變體機種是波音777的直接競爭對手,而777的所以發動機均由通用電氣提供。
Rolls and GE at least both offer engines for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner, which will compete with other variants of the A350.
勞斯萊斯和通用電氣至少同時為與其他A350變體機競爭的波音787夢幻客機提供發動機。
So a return to vigorous competition among three or more engine-makers is far from guaranteed.
因而未必能回到三家甚至更多引擎制造商激烈競爭的局面。
Indeed, Zafar Khan of Societe Generale, a bank, suggests that since Rolls is relatively small and Pratt is part of a deep-pocketed conglomerate, United Technologies, Pratt might contemplate bidding for Rolls to ensure its return to the widebodied market.
法國興業銀行的Zafar Khan表示鑒于勞斯萊斯相對規模較小,而普惠公司隸屬于財力雄厚的企業集團聯合科技,普惠可能會考慮出資買下勞斯萊斯來保證進入廣體機業務。
That would require the agreement of the British government, which has a golden share in Rolls.
這需要得到有著勞斯萊斯黃金股份的英國政府的許可。
But if such a deal also ensured Rolls's long-term future, that might not be impossible.
不過如果這真的利于勞斯萊斯的長期未來,也并非沒有可能。
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