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Twitter's IPO
推特上市
Going cheep?
先聞其聲？
The microblogging firm's shares may not be the bargain investors are hoping for
推特股價可能高于投資者預期
TWITTER is already a social-media star.
推特已經是社交明星。
Now it hopes to become the toast of the stockmarket too.
現在它又希望可以成為股票市場的新星。
The firm has gradually been unveiling more information about its business.
為了準備在紐約證券交易所的上市交易，
But as it gets ready for its first day of trading as a public company on the New York Stock Exchange, which looks likely to be on November 7th, opinions about a fair price for the shares vary considerably.
這家公司現在開始逐漸公開一部分商業信息。上市日期大概在11月7日左右，現在對其股票上市的價格有諸多意見。
The firm has announced a provisional range of between 17 and 20 for its stock, which would value it at up to 11.1 billion.
推特表示其股票價格暫定在17到20美金之間，總價值可達111億美元。
Speculation is rife that Twitter and its bankers could set an even loftier price before trading starts, though as we went to press no change had been announced.
雖然現在還沒有消息稱公司會改變發售價但普遍認為推特及其銀行會在股票發售前定一個較高的價格。
If they do push the price higher, long-term investors could get their fingers burned.
如果他們真的抬高了發售價，那些長線投資者的利益將會有所損失。
Twitbulls point out that Twitter is going public at a time when social-media stocks are all the rage.
推文指出現在社交媒體類股票風靡一時，于是推特選在這時上市。
On October 30th Facebook's share price, which had already risen by 84% this year, soared in after-hours trading following news that its latest quarterly revenue had hit 2 billion.
10月30號，臉書公布其最新季度收入達到20億美金，之后其股票飆升，而今年它的股票已經升了84%了。
LinkedIn has seen its stellar revenue growth slow a bit recently, but its shares are still up 95% this year.
LinkedIn 最近的主要收入增長有所放緩，但今年他的股票仍漲了95%。
Twitter's boosters also claim that the company deliberately set a conservative initial price range to fuel investor interest in its stock, noting that an internal valuation conducted by the firm in August reckoned its shares were worth 20.62 each at the time.
推特的支持者聲稱公司故意設置了一個保守的價格區間以吸引投資者，公司在8月份內部股價認為當時價值20.62美元每股。
The company has continued to increase its audience, and now boasts 232m users that visit it at least once a month.
現在公司的關注度在持續上升，至少有2億3千2百萬用戶每月至少瀏覽一次。
Small wonder, then, that some financial folk are predicting Twitter's stock will fly even if the IPO price is a bit higher than the existing range.
不足為奇的是，一些民間金融預測推特的股票會上漲即使IPO的價格略高于現有區間。
Brian Wieser of Pivotal Research Group reckons its shares will be changing hands at 29 by the end of the year.
廣告業研究機構匹維托研究集團的布萊恩?維瑟認為這支股票到年末會漲至29美元。
Others are even more optimistic.
甚至還有一席人表現得更為樂觀。
Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management, a hedge fund, has said he thinks the share price of Twitter could double within its first month of trading and that he would be willing to pay up to 32.50 for its shares. Twitbulls like to point out that Twitter is currently generating about 2.30 of revenue per user.
海風資產管理公司的對沖基金管理人Doug Kass表示他認為股票價格會在交易的第一個月翻倍，他愿意以32.5美元的價格買入股票。
That is much less than Facebook makes from its audience, implying Twitter has plenty of room to boost sales.
推文指出推特最近可以在每個用戶上收入約2.30美元，遠臉書的收益，旨在暗示推特任由上漲空間。
But they gloss over an important fact. Unlike Facebook and LinkedIn, which were making healthy profits before they went public, Twitter is still losing money—134m in the first nine months of this year compared with 71m in the same period of 2012.
但是他們掩蓋了一個重要事實。推特不像臉書和LinkedIn那樣在上市前健康盈利，而是還在虧損。
These losses make it impossible to compare Twitter's IPO with others using the traditional yardstick of a price-earnings ratio.
今年的前9個月虧了1.34億美金，去年同期則虧損了7千1百萬美金。這些虧損使得推特的IPO不能用傳統的價格收益比來衡量。
Instead, analysts often look at another measure: the ratio of a firm's proposed market capitalisation at IPO to the past 12 months' sales.
相反，分析家經常看其他數據，例如公司就過去12個月銷售及IPO所提出的公司目標市值比。
Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida, has calculated this ratio for Twitter using a share price of 18.50, which is the midpoint of its proposed range.
Jay Ritter佛羅里達大學教授根據這個比計算得出推特的股價應在18.50美元，這一價格處于公司提出的股價范圍的中位。
Counting in restricted shares and those associated with outstanding stock options, this produces a market cap of 12.9 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of 24.1 based on Twitter's revenues over the past 12 months.
計算有限的股票和相關的優秀股權，這產生了大約129億元的市場價值和24.1的市銷率。
That is the third-highest PSR of any IPO in America since 1980 involving firms with significant revenues.
這是自1980年以來美國企業重要收入IPO中第三高的市銷率。
Shares in the two companies ahead of Twitter in the chart—Facebook and Palm, a now-defunct maker of hand-held devices—fell sharply in the months following their IPOs; and Mr Ritter notes that the top 15 companies in his PSR ranking saw their share prices drop by an average of 5% in the six months after their first day of trading.
表上領先推特的2家公司—臉書和Plam的股票繼IPO之后在本月快速下降；Ritter先生表示15家市銷率榜上的頂尖企業的股票在第一日交易后的6個月中都平均下降了5%。
“A valuation at a high price-to-sales ratio removes a lot of the upside potential for investors in the public market,” he says.
在公共市場中，基于高市銷比的估價減少了投資者的上漲潛力。
The challenge faced by companies with high ratios is to generate revenue fast enough to meet investors' expectations.
那些有著高市銷比的公司面臨著加快產生收益已滿足投資者期許的挑戰。
So far, Twitter has only a microscopic share of the 118 billion a year global market for online advertising.
到目前為止推特只擁有1180億美元每年的網絡廣告全球市場的微型股。
Yet the fact that many people tweet on their smartphones means it is well-positioned to take advantage of growth in mobile advertising.
然而，很多人用智能機發推特表示了它能很好地利用手機廣告的增長。
On the other hand the compact nature of its tweets, limited to 140 characters, means that Twitter will find it harder than Facebook to generate ad formats that mint money.
另一方面，由于140字符的限制使得推特短小精悍，這意味著較臉書推特跟難產生廣告效應從而盈利。
And it now faces much stiffer competition from the social network and other companies such as Google in the mobile-ad arena.
同時現在它正面臨著來自其他社交媒體和類似谷歌的公司在手機廣告領域的挑戰。
Trick or tweet?
惡作劇還是推特
So what is a fair value for Twitter's shares?
所以推特的真正股票價值是多少？
Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University, has built a valuation model that assumes Twitter will scoop up around 5.5% of the online ad market by 2023, giving it revenues of 11.2 billion.
Aswath Damodaran紐約大學教授建立了價值模型，估計到2023年推特的網絡廣告市場將會增加5.5%，這會給企業帶來112億美元的收入。
His model also posits an operating margin of 25% for the company, which seems plausible given that of other internet firms that have grown fast.
他的模型還假定基于其他網絡公司快速發展的情況下，推特營運利潤率為25%看上去是可信的。
Based on his analysis, he reckons Twitter's shares are worth 17.84 each, which is towards the lower end of Twitter's current price range.
根據他的分析，他推算推特的股票腳趾17.84美元每股，低于推特最近給出的價格范圍。
Given the many uncertainties that still dog the company's business model, a price of around 18 a share seems reasonable.
由于公司發展仍有很多不確定性，每股18美元左右的售價是比價合理的。
But investors who like volatility may still want to take a flutter on Twitter's stock even if the price is somewhat higher.
但是那些活躍的投資者仍想入手推特的股票，即使價格有些高。
Given all of the hype around the company, Twitter's shares could spike upwards immediately after its IPO, allowing investors to mint money by buying and selling quickly.
在大肆宣傳之后，推特的股票會在其上市后發行，允許投資者以快速買賣的方式流動資金。
So Twitter's flotation could be a great short-term trading opportunity.
所以推特發行股票是一個很好的短期交易機會。
But at anything above 18 each, its shares will be a poor long-term investment.
但是任何一股超過18美元每股后，他就會變成長期投資。
