評論
打印
Finance and economics Inflation
財經商業 通貨膨脹
The price is a blight
價格是一塊心病
The rich world, and especially the euro zone, risks harmfully low inflation
歐元區，富人世界，正遭受低通脹率的困襲
WHEN central banks adopted quantitative easing and other unorthodox means to buoy economies holed by the financial crisis, many feared that the result would be out-of-control inflation.
當央行采取了量化寬松政策并采取其他的非常規手段去刺激被經融危機滯澀的經濟時，很多人擔心這結果會是失控的通貨膨脹。
Asset prices have certainly soared.
金融資產的價格會隨之飆升。
But consumer prices have not.
但消費價格不會。
Indeed, the growing fear is that rich countries may be entering a twilight zone of ultra-low inflation.
確切地說，這是人們逐漸害怕富裕國家的經濟進入一個介于高通脹和低通脹之間的模糊區域。
A downward lurch has been most notable in the euro area, where annual inflation dropped from an already low 1.1% in September to 0.7% in October; a year ago it stood at 2.5%.
最顯著的下降發生在歐元區，那里年通脹率由一年前的2.5%在9月份掉到1.1%，在10月份掉到0.7%。
It is now a percentage point lower than the European Central Bank's inflation target of below but close to 2%.
現在它的通脹率還是地獄歐洲央行的通脹目標值略低于2%。
The ECB lowered its main policy rate to 0.5% in May; on November 7th its governing council, responding to the weak inflation figures, reduced the interest rate further, to 0.25%.
歐洲央行在五月份削弱了整體稅率政策到0.5%；在11月7號，管理委員會進一步減少利率到0.25%。這個委員會專門負責弱勢通脹情況。
Elsewhere, too, inflation is low and falling.
在別處也是一樣，通脹率很低而且持續下滑。
Almost five years after the Federal Reserve led the way with quantitative easing, inflation is well below the Fed's 2% target.
美聯儲實行量化寬松政策后大約五年時間，通脹率已經很穩定的保持在2%以下的目標。
In August this wider measure stood at little more than 1%. Across the G7 economies, inflation has been weak this year and has recently fallen back to 1.3%; a year ago it was 1.8%.
8月，這項更寬廣的措施讓通脹率維持在略高于1%?？v觀七國集團的經濟，通貨膨脹在今年持續弱勢并且最近掉到1.3%；一年前是1.8%。
Even inBritain, which has the highest inflation in both the G7 and the European Union, the rate has been broadly stable this year.
就是英國，通脹今年保持總體穩定，在7國集團和歐盟里，有著最高的通脹率達到2.7%。
Slack energy prices have contributed to recent declines in overall inflation.
下滑的能源價格對最近整體通脹下滑也有一定影響。
That is a welcome development, boosting the purchasing power of both businesses and households.
這是一個受歡迎的進展，刺激了購買力，不管是對于商業還是房產。
But core inflation, which by excluding the more volatile elements of energy and food offers a surer guide to underlying price pressures, tells a less heartening story.
但是核心通脹，它排除了更多的揮發元素，如能源、食品，給物價壓力墊定了更厚實的基礎，這無疑是令人不那么振奮的消息。
Across the G7 core consumer-price inflation has been stuck over the past year at 1.4%.
縱觀七國集團的核心消費者價格，去年通脹持續卡在1.4%。
On the Fed's measure it is just 1.2%.
在聯邦儲備系統的調控下，它只有1.2%。
And in the euro zone, core inflation has fallen over the past year from 1.5% to 0.8%, matching the record low of early 2010.
并且在歐元區，核心通脹率已經由去年的1.5%降到0.8%，與2010年的低紀錄一致。
One bright spot that has helped to keep G7 inflation from falling further isJapan, where the reflationary drive of Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, is stoking hopes that the past decade and a half of deflation may at last be coming to an end.
日本幫助七國集團只住通脹下滑趨勢是一大亮點，它的通貨再膨脹的驅動者，安倍晉三首相，正使人們燃起希望，過去十五年的通貨緊縮可能最終結束。
Overall inflation has risen to 1.1%—higher than in the euro area—and core inflation is now at zero.
整體的通脹會升到1.1%—比歐元區高—并且核心通脹現在處于0。
But the immense difficulty that successive Japanese governments have encountered in trying to escape the shackles of deflation serves as a warning of the danger of letting inflation fall too low.
但是歷任日本政府所面臨的巨大困難是，在嘗試避免通貨緊縮的桎梏時，不想充當危險警報器，讓通脹降得太低。
Once people start to anticipate declining rather than rising prices, it can be very hard to reverse their expectations.
但一度人們開始預期價格下跌而不是升高，所以很難扭轉人們的預期。
Abandoning reserve
撤銷儲備金
That danger is less acute in Americathan in the euro area largely because the Fed is more proactive than the ECB.
與歐元區相比，在美國沒有那么嚴重的危機，很大程度上因為美聯儲比歐洲央行更有前瞻性。
It surprised the markets in September by sustaining quantitative easing at its present pace of 85 billion of asset-purchases a month, rather than starting to curb it.
9月，它延續量化寬松政策，也就是每個月不去限制資產購買而是用850億美元購買資產的步幅，讓市場振奮起來。
A study by economists at the Federal Reserve, published this week, has fuelled speculation that it may keep interest rates at rock bottom even longer by lowering the level of unemployment at which it will consider rate increases from the current 6.5%.
這星期出版的美聯儲經濟學家們的研究結論使投資充滿動力，它可能會更久地保持低利率在一個最低點，措施是降低失業率，因為失業會將利率從現行的6.5%提高。
By contrast, the euro area looks increasingly vulnerable to a slide into deflation.
相比而言，歐元區的經濟看起來更容易受通貨緊縮的沖擊。
Although the region emerged this spring from a painfully protracted double-dip recession, the recovery is expected to be a feeble one.
盡管，歐元區在經歷痛苦而蠻長的雙底衰退之后迎來了復蘇，復蘇的程度仍被預期很微弱無力。
GDP will fall by 0.4% this year and rise by only 1.1% in 2014, according to forecasts from the European Commission published on November 5th.
根據歐洲委員會在11月5號的展望，今年GDP會降到0.4%，在2014年也只能上漲1.1%。
Such weak growth is unlikely to overcome the forces pushing inflation down.
這樣緩慢的增長不可能扭轉讓通脹率下滑的頹勢。
Output will remain well below its full potential next year, estimates the commission; all that idle capacity acts as a drag on prices.
委員會分析明年的出口量將很可能持續低迷；所有閑置的生產力將會對價格起到副作用。
Unemployment across the euro area will stay stuck at a woefully high 12.2%, which will keep wages down.
整個歐元區的失業率會持續卡在令人痛苦的12.2%上，這無疑會讓工資水平下降。
The strength of the euro will also exert a downward pull.
歐洲整體的購買力將會下滑。
It has been trading this week at 1.35, more than 5% higher than a year ago; on a trade-weighted basis it is 8% higher.
本周它與美元的匯率處在1比1.35，比去年高5%；從貿易加權上看高了8%。
Very low inflation in the euro zone makes it much more difficult for uncompetitive countries, predominantly in southernEurope, to regain lost ground.
歐元區的極低通脹使無競爭力的國家更加艱難回復興盛，尤其是南歐的國家們。
Workers tend to resist nominal cuts in pay more fiercely than they do the subtler erosion of their income through inflation.
工人們懷有抵制心態，他們需要名義上付更多的錢，這樣就很微妙地侵蝕了工資額度。
If inflation in the countries with which the weak economies trade is high, they can improve their competitiveness simply by keeping their rate lower.
如果一個國家里的通脹是建立在脆弱經濟和高貿易量上，他們只要保持低稅率就可以提高競爭力。
That is in essence howGermanygained a big edge in the first decade of the euro.
這就是前十年德國在歐洲占有重要地位的關鍵。
But with overall inflation so low, peripheral countries must instead adjust through outright deflation or something close to it, meaning a freeze or absolute cuts in wages.
但是整體的通脹率如此低下，小國家們必須作出調整，不能使經濟完全通貨緊縮或是接近這樣。否則就意味著工資的凍結或大幅度降薪。
Already, in September, when euro-wide inflation was 1.1%, prices were falling by 1% inGreece.
9月份，整個歐元區通脹率為1.1%，希臘的物價已下跌了1%。
They were flat inIrelandand rising by just 0.3% inPortugal.
愛爾蘭保持平穩，葡萄牙升高了0.3%。
A sustained period of deflation would be particularly hard on the euro zone's periphery, weighed down by debt.
處在歐元區邊緣的國家持續的通貨緊縮很難抑制，它們被債務拖累；
Cyprus,Ireland,PortugalandSpainhave high public and private debt;Greece and Italyhave high public debt.
塞浦路斯，愛爾蘭，葡萄牙和西班牙喲很高的公共債務和私人債務。希臘和意大利有著很高的公共債務。
When prices are falling, debt, which is fixed in nominal terms, becomes more onerous in real terms.
當價格下跌時，債務在合約上不變，就會使它們負擔更重。
Higher inflation, in contrast, makes escaping heavy debt much less burdensome.
更高的通脹，相反會讓他們逃離沉重債務，減輕很大負擔。
Central banks have had to move beyond past orthodoxies in order to coax a modest recovery from the ruins of the financial crisis.
央行已經超越了正統做法，目的是引導出一個溫和的經濟復蘇，拯救被金融危機破壞的經濟。
Now, to avoid the blight of stagnating or falling prices, they may have to venture still further into unconventional territory.
現在，要避免經濟發展的滯澀或是下跌的物價他們可能必須進一步冒險，去探索非常規領域。
